Upcoming playoff game with Ravens 1/15/2012

[Nconroe]

I think its about time to talk about this.

Road game, outside, they beat us once this year, some think Baltimore is best AFC team this year, great defense, good run game, lots of playoff experience, no injury issues, no distractions, two weeks rest. we are like 8 point underdog in Vegas.

But, we are 1-0 in playoffs, with an impressive win, they are 0-0 so far.

For some reason I am fairly optimistic Texans with their teamwork can pull this off to get to AFC championship game.

[cadams]

i agree that i get the feeling that we could pull an upset (i woudl give us a 35-40% chance), though i still don't think i would pick the texans to win if you put a gun to my head.

the ravens do have a good run game and playoff experience, but flacco is inconsistent at best. he could just as easily lay an egg this weekend as he could go for 250 yards.

this really should be a good game, both teams have great defenses and great running games, and neither team has a top notch qb. in the first game we had schaub, but no andre. this time we have andre, but no schaub. if forced to chose i would say having andre is more important to a victory against the ravens than schaub. even with yates, they won't be able to load the box like they did with andre, and by forcing them to have another safety up top, it will not only help the running game, but also the screens and the underneath crossing paterns.

i say the winner will win by 6 points or less this week.

[nunusguy]

By their own admissions, both Arian and Andre have admitted they were tight early on the Cinci game, and their initial performances certainly showed that ?
But even though this is a road game, I kinda expect the Texans to play with intensity while not having the same kinda nerves they had in their playoff icebreaker in Reliant Saturday. The wildcard is gonna be Yates ? The Ravens D is probably drooling at this moment at that thought of facing such a novice.
Maybe TJ he can turn the tables on them ?

[Arky]

Wow, beat me to it. Here's what I wrote up:

The Texans head up to Baltimore to take on the heavily-favored Ravens this Sunday in an early Sunday game on CBS. The Texans lost the regular season game against the Ravens 29-14 in Week 6. Ray Lewis had a monster game that day with 12 tackles and a sack (prediction: CBS will show Lewis' pre-game pep-talk for the 1,673 time. Ya seen one Ray Lewis pre-game peptalk....) In that game, the Texans won the turnover battle 2-0 but couldn't take advantage of their opportunities. The Ravens had 2 TD's, kicked 5 field goals and had success with vertical passing. RB Ray Rice was 23/101 yds and caught 5 passes for 60 more. Their defense held RB Arian Foster to 15/49 yds rushing. Andre Johnson did not play that day but is expected to be ready to go this Sunday.

When Ray Rice struggles to get his yards, the Ravens can be beat. Baltimore's four losses came when Rice did not have a good day but all four losses were on the road. Baltimore went 8-0 at home in the regular season (eww). That said, the two teams are pretty even statistically across the board. The key to the game, IMO, is the Texan o-line. Not a time for a bad day. If they are truly an "elite" o-line, now's the time to show it. They have to protect QB TJ Yates and open up holes for the running backs.....

TV = CBS (channel 11 local), 12 noon, Sunday

Announcers = TBD (probably Greg Gumbel Dan Dierdorf since Nance/Simms work Saturday night)

Favorite = Ravens by 7.5 to 9

[HPF Bob]

Early weather forecast for Sunday:

Cold, cloudy, mid-30s, 10% chance of precip, wind under 10 MPH.

In other words, weather should not be a factor any more than it was for the game in Cincy.

On the field, I think the big key will be how to stop Ngata. Meyers will have his hands full and may require some help. But if he can open holes in the middle, that will make everything else a little easier for the offense. On defense, contain the TE. I think we'll be solid in every other area but other teams have gashed us with throws to the TE and that is a big part of Flacco's gameplan.

Rice and Foster should cancel each other out so it will come down to which team can move the ball through the air.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Rice and Foster should cancel each other out so it will come down to which team can move the ball through the air.

Not exactly our recipe for success.

[WMH]

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/pos...laying-injured

Ravens safety Ed Reed has received criticism lately for not playing up to his usual high level.

"I had a stinger hurt me this year so bad in my right shoulder to where now it has affected my deltoid (muscle in the shoulder) and my scapula," Reed told the AFC North blog. "My shoulder has just been hanging on the last couple of weeks. You could see how it has affected me for the most part. I think I've missed one tackle for four games straight, one in each game."

Reed hasn't been listed on the injury report the past four weeks, so this is the first time that this is being revealed. While a nerve impingement has limited his ability to tackle for the past few years, he has struggled to make tackles more this season. That was evident when he missed a tackle in the regular-season finale on Bengals backup running back Bernard Scott that resulted in a touchdown.

This injury could have an impact in Sunday's divisional playoff game against Houston. Reed will need to help out in run support against the Texans, the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack in the regular season that led all playoff teams last weekend with 188 yards on the ground. But this injury could limit Reed's effectiveness.

[barrett]

I hate to say it, but I think this week is more about the Ravens than it is about what we do. They can look like the best team in the NFL when they throw the ball well and get Suggs after the QB. I may not have seen a team look better all year than they did in week 1 vs Pitt. But their loss to the Jags on MNF was about as bad as a playoff team played all year. And they are rarely inbetween.

I think we will run the ball well enough and play enough D to be close either way. But if Baltimore plays their best, I don't think we can win. If they don't and we can play with a lead, we may be playing next week.

[WMH]

I see three key positive changes for us over one glaring negative between this game and the week 6 matchup.

Postives
1) Dre
- Him being on the field will be a huge factor. Load the box, and Yates has shown he will chunk it deep to Dre. He has been hesistant to do it without him, but in the 2 games they have played together, Dre has 9 catches for 187.

2) Barwin/Reed swap spots
- Week 6 was the first game post Mario, and this game, Reed was plugged into the weak spot. This is reverse from where they are now, and seeing the production from Barwin over the last 10 weeks, this has worked out well for us.

3) Vickers
- As long as Yates doesn't have to throw him the ball, this is an ideal game for Vickers to earn his paycheck and then some. I have a feeling that he is going to be a huge factor in the run game.

Negative
1) Yates
- Can the kid keep it up? He wasn't asked to do too much in the Bengals game, but might need to drop back more than 20 times if we can't get the run game going. Does he sphincter up? He showed incredible poise (after the first 2 drives), but will going on the road, in the playoffs, prove too much for him?

[NBT]

Sooooo...both teams rely on their defense stopping the run. The emphasis then swings to the QB/WRs/TEs. Ravens advantage with Flucco. Texans advantage with Dre. Young Yates is going to have to mature in a hurry in the passing game if we are to win Sunday.

For us then, the secondary is going to have to step up, and Barwin-Reed are going to have to get after Flucco. Cushing and Ryans will have to plug up the run holes.

Right now 35-40% chance seems to be about right.

If Kubiak can work real hard with the kid, and Dre, OD, and Dreesen and Casey can have huge games we can win. I just don't have that much confidence in Jacobe Jones and Walter.

[edo783]

Don't be surprised if we play a bit loosey goosey and let the ball fly more than one might normally expect. Get the defense backing up a bit and then the ground pounders can likely get going better than they did in game one.

[painekiller]

I like our chances. I think we upset the Ravens and then Denver has to come to Houston for the Championship.

[angrydre]

coming into the Cincy game, my gut said we rout the Bengals and lose in Baltimore. I don't know if it was the game we played on Saturday, the lingering excitement from being in the building, or if I'm really onto something, but if you pressed me right now, I'm taking the Texans by 4.

These 2 teams are so much the same it's ridiculous, with QB's you're not sure your can count on on Sunday (just 'cause Yates is a rook. I believe in the kid in general), great defenses, and 2 of the top 5 running backs in the NFL, good TE's, the list goes on. Yet I think we're gonna pull it out, and here's why (remember that we hung in for 55 minutes the first time, without Dre, and with Foster playing like trash. Hit the damn bong, kid!):

Andre Johnson. It can't be emphasized enough, his impact just being on the field. He had a solid day Saturday, with his 5 for 90 and a touch, but Megatron lapped him with his 12 for 211 and 2. I expect Angry Dre to make a statement.

Johnathan Joseph. Anquan Bolden caught 8 for 132 last time. Considering how well he kept AJ Green in check on Saturday after getting lit up a bit the first time, I expect him to bring the pain.

Arian Foster. He played like trash the first time. 15 for 49?!? THAT won't happen again. I expect him to break at least one for 40+. Am I getting carried away already?

Our defense is just as good as theirs. Anyone who thinks we're gonna sputter while they have a banner day is smoking some REALLY quality shizzle. Put down the pipe. This defense is gonna be hungry.

Our running game is better than theirs. Yeah, Ray Rice is awesome, and he's got Vonta Leach leading the way, so you can call Ray and Arian a wash, but Ben Tate > Ricky Williams, and THAT isn't close.

We're gonna have to stretch the field and work the middle in the passing game to keep everyone honest and really open up the run, but if I know that, Kubiak knows that.

And then there's the other stuff. I've just had a feeling, since the injuries started piling up, that this year is just special. AFC Championship, that's what my gut said.

The Ravens could EASILY be looking forward to New England, satisfied with the way they won the first time, Our first time in the divisional round, with a 5th round rookie QB, the Ravens are SUPPOSED to win. I've seen the line as high as Ravens -9. If I wasn't nearly destitute thanks to my jaunt to Houston for the game last week, I'd be all over that.

Besides, we're just DUE to beat Baltimore. Doesn't it feel like we play them every year, and every time we find a way to lose. This is a year of firsts and getting over the hump. I think we've got a little magic left.

All that combines for a win by less than a TD. For the first time in my life, I'll be rooting for Tim Tebow, HARD. A home AFC Championship game would really be the best thing for everyone, my girlfriend included. Not only do I get really sad when we lose, but playoff victories make for some good lovin', am I right, boys?

[cadams]

game time temp is supposed to be a balmy 36 degrees

[HPF Bob]

I hope there are still a few who remember that overtime loss at Reliant that symbolized that crappy 6-10 season we had last year and will want some payback on the Ravens.

Logic won't tell you we can beat the Ravens but momentum might. Saturday's win showed how hungry they are and I can see them sustaining that with a few breaks. Teams coming off bye weeks can be a crapshoot. When you get right down to it, the only TD drive the Bengals got was mostly on a pass interference call against Quin. If the Texans can limit mistakes, they have a chance.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by angrydre

These 2 teams are so much the same it's ridiculous, with QB's you're not sure your can count on on Sunday (just 'cause Yates is a rook. I believe in the kid in general), great defenses, and 2 of the top 5 running backs in the NFL, good TE's, the list goes on.

What's most amazing to me is that I agree with this statement. Just one year ago, I don't think there was any team in the league we were less like than Baltimore. In fact, in years past, I made many comments after watching Pittsburgh and Baltimore battle in the playoffs that it wasn't even clear the Texans were playing the same sport. It's astounding the leaps and bounds they have made this year in both play and attitude (although these are not unrelated).

[popanot]

I'm amazed at how so many of the media 'experts' feel the Ravens are so dominant. I don't see it. Looking at their W' and L's this year, they were in a lot of close games and it's not like their D didn't give up points and totally dominated the opponent. I know it's not the best barometer, but they were in some close games with a few common opponents that we beat pretty handily. They also had a few losses to inferior opponents like we did against the Colts.

I give the Texans a great shot at beating these guys and I hope they use the lack of respect to their advantage. You watch ESPN and NFLN and there is virtually no mention of the Texans. Go to the NFL.com website and see if you can find a Texans article anywhere on the main page. I watched NFLN last night and they had news articles and stories on every playoff team except the Texans. Amazing. This team was one of the best teams throughout the whole year and it's like they're nothing but fodder for the Ravens.

[cadams]

there is a simple reason for this. the texans are on their third qb this year, and they went on a 3 game losing streak at the end of the regular season. it makes sense that a lot of people will just look at those two things to make their assesment. i think flacco is way overrated, but he has won playoff games in the past, and he has had some big passing games.

yates has almost no history, and most of it has been without andre johnson. had johnson been healthy the last half of the year and played in all the games with yates it is likely that there would be a bit of a different perspective by a lot of people. also, even though these guys get paid to follow football, most of them only know that the texans (with schaub) lost by 15 to the ravens earlier in the year. they don't realize that it was a 5 point game with less than 5 minutes left in the game.

but still, the big factor is no schaub and yates was not even dresses for a game this year until week 11. that is why they don't think the texans have a shot. i am not amazed at all that most of the media has not done their homework on this, but the reality is that while i think the texans have a legitimate shot at winning this game, i still think balt has the advantage and should be about a 6 point favorite.

[barrett]

The ravens were an average 4-4 on the road, and they had some Ws and Ls like us on the road. At home they were 8-0. We have some great Ws and Ls but are 4-3 since schaub went down. That is why the media is slanting so heavily to Baltimore.

We have a chance and I do hope the media fires us up. But I understand why the media has the ravens as a solid favorite.

[popanot]

I fully understand why the media feels the Ravens will win. And yes, a lot of it has to do with Yates, plus the fact they're playing at home. I don't have a problem with people picking the Ravens. However, listening to the pundits, it's like the Ravens are as dominant as they were back when they won the Super Bowl and we have NO chance. Of course they're good, but I don't see them as this ultimate dominating force. Maybe I'm wrong or seeing it through battle red-colored glasses, but I see a very beatable team overall.

As for media coverage, one would think the Yates story and the Texans overcoming all the injuries would be a great story. Even a story about Kubiak's turnaround or how the team changed this year. But no, we get regurgitated Brees, Packers, Tebow, Patriots, how much the Giants have overcome, yada, yada, yada. Nothing Texans... Not even something bad like how we've gone 4-3 since Schaub's been out.

I mean, it doesn't tick me off or anything. I just find it disappointing the team we root for, 1 of only 8 teams left standing, can't even get the slightest bit of media coverage, or IMO, respect (even on a NFL sponsored network). Like I said, I hope like hell the players find some extra motivation from it.