Sizing Up the Division

WMH · #1 11-30-2010, 09:43 AM

Winning always brings eternal optimism, and while the 4 game losing stretch really sucked (especially the Hags loss), and since I am wearing my battle red kool-aid glasses this morning (and don't feel much like working), I started looking up at the standings on what is left within our division. There is no chance in hell that we can end up with a wild card, ain't gonna happen with the strength of the North and East. But....could we sneak in as a 8-8 Division winner?

Looking at what is remaining for the AFC South folks as of 11/30:

JAX - Leading division with a 2-1 record
12/5 - @ TN - Hopefully Collins will be back, and the Titans can take this one (did I just type that....)
12/19 - @ Indy - JAX isn't beating Indy on thier turf.
1/2 - @ Houston - Could be a HUGE game for our playoff fate.

Guesstimate - Jax ends up with a 3-3 division record. They beat TN this weekend, and lose the next 2.

Houston - 2nd in division wins with a 2-2 record
12/19 - @ TN - Hopefully Collins will be down again......

1/2 - JAX - Again, this could be a HUGE game for our playoff fate.

Hopeful guesstimate - Houston ends up with a 4-2 division record. We take care of business @ TN and our last game @ home.

TN - 1-1 division record
12/5 - JAX - Come'on Grampa Kerry!
12/9 - Indy - Short week for both teams for a Thursday nighter. IMO, this will be our biggest opportunity for Indy to get hit with a 3rd loss in the division.
12/19 - Houston - Hopefully Collins will be down again......

1/2 - @ Indy - It will be tough for Indy to lose at home, with as much as probably going to be on the line for this game.

Guesstimate - TN ends up with a 2-4 division record, beating Indy on the short week.

Indy - 1-2 division record
12/9 - @ TN - Short week for both teams for a Thursday nighter. IMO, this will be our biggest opportunity for Indy to get hit with a 3rd loss in the division.
12/19 - JAX - JAX isn't beating Indy on thier turf.
1/2 - TN - Indy's tough at home.

Hopeful guesstimate - Indy ends up with a 3-3 division record, thanks to the Titans for that Thursday night win.

Of course, our beloved Jeckyl and Hyde Texans have to show up for a road game in TN, with alot of drama surrounding AJ and that punk ass bitch, and gear up for the last game of the season with the Hags.

And, Indy needs to drop 1 of 3 divisional games......

Does the first one to 4 win the South?

nunusguy · #2 11-30-2010, 10:06 AM

This year is gonna be another blown opportunity we'll look back at and regret like last year because I think the division winner, with no wild-card coming out of the AFC South, will be 9-7 and we aren't sniffing 9-7 IMO.

WMH · #3 11-30-2010, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nunusguy

This year is gonna be another blown opportunity we'll look back at and regret like last year because I think the division winner, with no wild-card coming out of the AFC South, will be 9-7 and we aren't sniffing 9-7 IMO.

Definitely blown opportunities...but do we even need 9-7? I am strictly talking about division wins, we need 2 to get to 4-2 for the division. If Indy ends up with 4 division wins, then they will get the spot, as they will likely end up with a better record than us.

Based on what has already occurred, 8-8 with 2 key division wins, and a win @ Denver could put us in the dance.

IMO - Our biggest chance at this, other than winning those two games, is TN beating Indy next Thursday night.

Color me crazy, but it could happen.

HPF Bob · #4 11-30-2010, 10:55 AM

The division tiebreakers are going to be:

1. Overall record
2. Head-to-head record
3. Division record
4. Conference record

so the Texans start all this out one game in the hole in the overall record compared to the Colts and the Jaguars. The real question is whether the Titans are already done for the year. They won't be playing for Vince and they certainly didn't look like they were playing for Fisher.

IF the Jaguars can topple the Colts (they seem to be the one over the years with the best handle on them inside the division), they would be the improbable favorites at this point.

Will the officials try to prop up the Colts, knowing the tv draw that is Peyton Manning or will somebody put that beat-up group out of their misery?

As for Houston, they are relatively healthy compared to the others and have put together some big Decembers in the past but their defense, though improving, still sucks and that's going to be their big problem.

WMH · #5 11-30-2010, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The division tiebreakers are going to be:

1. Overall record
2. Head-to-head record
3. Division record
4. Conference record

From NFL.com - http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

1. The division champion with the best record.
2. The division champion with the second-best record.
3. The division champion with the third-best record.
4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

So, if we end up 4-2 and get the division crown, everyone else ends up at 3-3 or worse, we take the division, and the playoff spot, regardless of the overall record.....is that not correct?

HPF Bob · #6 11-30-2010, 11:46 AM

If we end up with more wins than the others, yes, that's all you need to know.

But if two teams tie for the top, say Jacksonville and Indianapolis, then the next tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. If J-ville beat Indy both times, J-ville wins the division. But if the teams split their two games, the next tie-breaker will be record within the division. Now, if those two teams ended with the same division record, then they go to record within the conference. And if that's a tie, then they start going to things like net points, etc.

If three teams tie for the top of the division, they will compare each tiebreaker until one is eliminated then they will revert to the two-team tiebreaker.

HPF Bob · #7 11-30-2010, 12:11 PM

Here's the rest of the season for all four teams:

Jacksonville (6-5, 2-1 div, 5-3 AFC)
12/05 at Tennessee (0-1 h2h)
12/12 vs Oakland
12/19 at Indianapolis (1-0 h2h)
12/26 vs Washington
01/02 at Houston (1-0 h2h)

Indianapolis (6-5, 1-2 div, 4-4 AFC)
12/05 vs Dallas
12/09 at Tennessee (0-0 h2h)
12/19 vs Jacksonville (1-0 h2h)
12/26 at Oakland
01/02 vs Tennessee (0-0 h2h)

Houston (5-6, 2-2 div, 4-4 AFC)
12/02 at Philadelphia
12/12 vs Baltimore
12/19 at Tennessee (1-0 h2h)
12/26 at Denver
01/02 vs Jacksonville (0-1 h2h)

Tennessee (5-6, 1-1 div, 2-5 AFC)
12/05 vs Jacksonville (1-0 h2h)
12/09 vs Indianapolis (0-0 h2h)
12/19 vs Houston (0-1 h2h)
12/26 at Kansas City
01/02 at Indianapolis (0-0 h2h)

IMO, Indy has the easiest road here.

TexicanMexican · #8 11-30-2010, 05:20 PM

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

painekiller · #9 11-30-2010, 06:31 PM

I'm waiting to see how the next two games go before I put on the red colored glasses again this season. I was burned earlier, and I defended the team for a while, so now I am waiting for them to prove they are really contenders not pretenders.

Arky · #10 11-30-2010, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by painekiller

I'm waiting to see how the next two games go before I put on the red colored glasses again this season. I was burned earlier, and I defended the team for a while, so now I am waiting for them to prove they are really contenders not pretenders.

That's the whole thing, right there. If they are a playoff team, then they should be able to beat other playoffs teams. They should be able to beat the Eagles and Ravens of the league..... If they can't, then they aren't there, yet.... (I am not a rocket scientist but I do play one on TV)

TheMatrix31 · #11 11-30-2010, 07:35 PM

This is how I figure it......

Jacksonville (6-5):

@ Tennessee - W
Oakland - W
@ Indianapolis - L
Washington - W
@ Houston - L

9-7

Indianapolis (6-5):

Dallas - W
@ Tennessee - L
Jacksonville - W
@ Oakland - W
Tennessee - W

10-6

Houston (5-6):

@ Eagles - W
Ravens - L
@ Titans - W
Denver - W
Jacksonville - W

9-7

Tennessee (5-6):

Jacksonville - L
Indianapolis - W
Houston - L
@ Kansas City - L
@ Indianapolis - L

6-10

....Indy gets in, as usual.

WMH · #12 11-30-2010, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

This is how I figure it......

Jacksonville (6-5):

@ Tennessee - W
Oakland - W
@ Indianapolis - L
Washington - W
@ Houston - L

9-7

Indianapolis (6-5):

Dallas - W
@ Tennessee - L
Jacksonville - W
@ Oakland - W
Tennessee - W

10-6

Houston (5-6):

@ Eagles - W
Ravens - L
@ Titans - W
Denver - W
Jacksonville - W

9-7

Tennessee (5-6):

Jacksonville - L
Indianapolis - W
Houston - L
@ Kansas City - L
@ Indianapolis - L

6-10

....Indy gets in, as usual.

Actually, your scenario would put us at 4-2 in the division, and Indy at 3-3, Jax would be 3-3 in the division, and TN would be 2-4.

By winning our division, we are in the dance. If I'm right, our only real 2 "must wins" are the TN and Jax games, plus we need the others to beat each other up.

TheMatrix31 · #13 11-30-2010, 08:38 PM

Yeah, but Indy would have the better overall, which sucks.

WMH · #14 11-30-2010, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

Yeah, but Indy would have the better overall, which sucks.

I guess that is where I am a little confused......

If we win the division, at 4-2, and everyone else is 3-3 or worse, we should get the playoff spot for the AFC South, regardless of overall record......correct?

I've seen it both ways in a couple of different spots.

I guess worse case, we need TN to beat Indy, and for them to drop another.....maybe the Cowgirls can sneak up and bite them this weekend.....

Arky · #15 11-30-2010, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WMH

I guess that is where I am a little confused......

If we win the division, at 4-2, and everyone else is 3-3 or worse, we should get the playoff spot for the AFC South, regardless of overall record......correct?

No. Best overall record is king. See Bob's first post.

If it's a 1st place tie (same overall record), then you go head to head.

If head to head was a split, then you go to the division record.

If those are the same, then you go to the common games record.

If those are the same, then you got to conference record.

WMH · #16 11-30-2010, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arky

No. Best overall record is king. See Bob's first post.

If it's a 1st place tie (same overall record), then you go head to head.

If head to head was a split, then you go to the division record.

If those are the same, then you go to the conference record.

I have seen the errors of my thinking.....I guess all this talk of the NFC's weak ass record holding teams got my noodle working the way I wanted it to.....

HPF Bob · #17 12-01-2010, 01:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TexicanMexican

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

You're right, which actually puts more weight on how you do with interconference foes than some intraconference ones.

Using the AFC South as an example, common foes would be division opponents (obviously a tie there in order to get to this tiebreaker) + teams from the AFC West (since all AFC South teams played all AFC West teams) + teams from the NFC East (since all AFC South teams played all NFC East teams). That means 14 of the 16 games on the schedule. So our games against the Jets and Ravens technically mean less than our games against the NFC East. That doesn't seem right.

superbowlbound · #18 12-01-2010, 01:17 AM

yeah, remember last year, when we were 2nd in the division at 9-7 overall with a 1-5 divisional record? I tend to agree with everyone that thinks we're gonna barely miss out again, and we'll be able to go back to 2 or 3 plays that would've made us an 11-5 football team. Again. I don't know if it's good or bad news that we're not gonna get a whole season of football in next season, since there's no way to be sure if the missed games are gonna come off the win or the loss totals.

TheMatrix31 · #19 12-01-2010, 03:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superbowlbound

yeah, remember last year, when we were 2nd in the division at 9-7 overall with a 1-5 divisional record? I tend to agree with everyone that thinks we're gonna barely miss out again, and we'll be able to go back to 2 or 3 plays that would've made us an 11-5 football team.

And that's what is such torture. For yet ANOTHER year, we're going to fall back on thinking about the ridiculous crap that SOMEHOW happened, keeping us out.

Arky · #20 12-01-2010, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TexicanMexican

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

Very good, I stand corrected and corrected my post.

If you want more confusion, tied Wild Card candidates have a different set of tie-breakers (see link). Last year, the Texans lost out on the head-to-head with the Jets.....