2nd Half Reset

[HPF Bob]

Believe it or not, the 5-3 Texans would be the sixth seed in the playoffs if they started today. Here's how the AFC looks after eight weeks:

New England 8-0
Baltimore 5-2
Indianapolis 5-2
Kansas City 5-3
Buffalo 5-2
Houston 5-3
============
Jacksonville 4-4
Tennessee 4-4
Pittsburgh 3-4
Oakland 3-4
L.A. Chargers 3-5

Offensively, the offensive line appears to be regressing. The false starts are especially a problem. Watson is spending too much of his time running for his life or spinning out of trouble. Hyde and Johnson have been a decent 1-2 punch and Watson has found a new weapon in Darren Fells to join DeAndre Hopkins.

Defensively, the loss of Watt hurts and the secondary is in shambles but they've been able to hold up decently up until now. The only game they really looked bad was against Carolina.

On special teams, I wish we had a better PK than Fairbairn but he's league average. I don't think we've had a real threat on kick returns since Andre' Davis (2007-09).

The second half schedule shows:

vs JAX (@ London)
BYE
@ BAL
vs IND
vs NE
vs DEN
@ TEN
@ TAM
vs TEN

That looks like a 4-4 finish or maybe 5-3. That's right on the border of making the playoffs but there are so many teams that are virtually out, one has to look at the rest of the AFC and realize we could be 9-7 and get the last spot by default.

Having tiebreakers with Oakland and the Chargers might be keys. We're also 4-1 in conference record, tied for second in the AFC with Buffalo behind you-know-who. After head-to-head, conference record is the second tiebreaker except with division foes.

My point is that we need not obsess over beating Indy. If they win the division, we can still make the playoffs unlike many previous AFC South seasons. If they can keep Watson healthy and heal up at key spots, their chances at returning to the playoffs (and likely getting embarrassed) seem better than 50-50 insuring O'Brien keeps his job another year.

[Arky]

Clint Stoerner on 610am was making the point that if the Texans can take 2 of the next 4, (Jax, Balt, Indy, NE - pick 2), then they go into a somewhat easy part of the schedule with the final 4 games (Denver, Tampa, Tenn x2). So, say they go into the final 4 games at 7-5, then a 3-1 finish or better is possible for a 10-6 or an 11-5 record.

That's optimistic, for sure. Playing Indy, NE, Tenn and Denver at home helps... but an unexpected bungle like losing to the Jags tomorrow could throw a wrench into everything.... We'll see, I guess...

[HPF Bob]

Wow...Texans look good going into their bye week. Revised Week 9 standings (conf record):

Patriots 8-1 (6-1)
Ravens 6-2 (4-2)
Texans 6-3 (5-1)
Chiefs 6-3 (4-2)
Bills 6-2 (4-1)
Colts 5-3 (4-3)
========
Steelers 4-4 (4-2)
Raiders 4-4 (2-2)
Jaguars 4-5 (4-3)
Titans 4-5 (2-4)
Chargers 4-5 (2-4)

[Arky]

I got beating the Colts as the #1 priority over the next three games. These division games are like double value (double win or double loss). You get a division win/loss and a conference win/loss. Since losing the first match-up to the Colts, that Thursday-nighter at home (vs. Colts) is pretty much a must-win.

If the Texans are truly contenders, then at least beating one of Baltimore or New England should be doable. I'd prefer a win over the Pats but either one would be fine. Two losses would be hard to stomach but made more palatable if they were close, hard-fought games (although we've seen that movie before).

Sweeping all three would be highly unlikely but if it happened, man, everyone and their ugly sister would be talking about the Texans....

[HPF Bob]

Beating the Colts will be easier if Brisket is still out and we get to face Brian "The Playoff Destroyer" Hoyer at QB.

I'll be shocked if the pass-rush-less Texans can beat either the Ravens or the Patriots but the Patriots might be easier than trying to chase down Jackson, plus we get the Pats at home with some extra rest and the Ravens may have exposed a few weaknesses. They no longer look so unbeatable.

I fully expect them to go 1-2 during that stretch but they could go 4-0 the final month, in which case they finish 11-5 with either the third seed or the fourth seed where they will eventually die in the cold tundra of Baltimore or Foxboro.

[HPF Bob]

Update: Per Mortensen, Brissett has an MCL "sprain" and could play against the Dolphins if needed for Week 10 but will likely be held out for caution and because, well, it's the Dolphins at home.

The Colts play at home against Jackwagonville before playing the Texans so it is likely both Brissett and Hilton will be healthy again by our game against them (drat!).

Also saw an item that said Keke Coutee was held out against the Jaguars not for injury but because of "lack of attention to detail". O'Brien also added that Keke is "a great guy" so I guess the coach likes him even though he doesn't remember what he's doing out on the field, like maybe running the right routes or throwing a block when called upon.

We ought to be using Stills more anyway. If you've noticed, Stills grabs the ball with his hands while Fuller and Coutee tend to body the ball against their chests, not trusting their hands alone to make the catch. Hopkins and Stills use their hands which is what you should be coached to do. Fells also uses his hands while Akins is more of a body-catcher.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

................
We ought to be using Stills more anyway. If you've noticed, Stills grabs the ball with his hands while Fuller and Coutee tend to body the ball against their chests, not trusting their hands alone to make the catch. Hopkins and Stills use their hands which is what you should be coached to do. Fells also uses his hands while Akins is more of a body-catcher.

Hopefully, Hopkins, Stills and Fells stay healthy so the Texans are not left with an invasion of the body-catchers. (har, har)

[Arky]

In the still-a-little-too-early dept., Fivethirtyeight has the Texans power ranked 8th with an 84% chance of getting into the playoffs.

They also have a calculated spread on the upcoming games. For the Texans next 3 games it goes like this:

Baltimore -3 vs. the Texans

Indianapolis +5 vs. the Texans

New England -1 vs. the Texans

Sometimes these are close, sometimes not to when the actual spread comes out. Injury and good or bad play can change things but it should be give one an idea of the possibilities....

[HPF Bob]

HOU and JAX off this week. Titans with a miraculous win over KC and the Colts succumb to the hapless Dolphins.

Buffalo loses while Oakland and Pittsburgh pull out big wins. The revised AFC playoff standings (conference records in parentheses):

1. New England 8-1 (6-1)
2. Baltimore 7-2 (5-2)
3. Houston 6-3 (5-1)
4. Kansas City 6-4 (4-3)
5. Buffalo 6-3 (4-2)
6. Pittsburgh 5-4 (4-2)
==================
Oakland 5-4 (3-2)
Indianapolis 5-4 (4-4)
Tennessee 5-5 (3-4)
Jacksonville 4-5 (4-3)
London Chargers 4-6 (2-5)

Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, division record is next but only for ties within the division and conference record is third. Houston has only one conference loss which can be a big help in tiebreakers.

Houston has the head-to-head tiebreaker (if needed) with Kansas City, Oakland, Jacksonville and the Chargers. They currently would lose a tiebreaker with Indianapolis but have a chance to eliminate that if they beat the Colts in two weeks.

[Arky]

Texan defense really needs to up their game when they face the Ravens next weekend - Ravens lead the league with 33.3 pts/game.

Early line has them as 4½ pt favorite over the Texans....

[HPF Bob]

4-1/2? Definitely take the Ravens, man, before Vegas comes to their senses.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

4-1/2? Definitely take the Ravens, man, before Vegas comes to their senses.

I think it's going to be close. Well, either that or we get blown out.

Can't wait for this game. I tell ya, the Texans have shown some encouraging things, it's nearly mid-November and we are still talking playoffs, etc. As a fan, enjoy it while you can..... Too many seasons have started in the toilet only to remain in the toilet - it's tons more fun to be where we are at now....

[HPF Bob]

The Texans will have most of their secondary healthy thanks to the bye week but I just see them chasing air all day as Jackson runs through them like a hot butter knife. Watson will try to keep it close but he won't be able to stay up.

I honestly think beating Brady will be easier than beating Jackson.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The Texans will have most of their secondary healthy thanks to the bye week but I just see them chasing air all day as Jackson runs through them like a hot butter knife. Watson will try to keep it close but he won't be able to stay up.

I honestly think beating Brady will be easier than beating Jackson.

I think we just gotta wait and see what happens. Not being snarky, here, but if I knew who would win and by how much, 1) I wouldn't bother to watch the game and 2) I would bet my house on the winner.... Ya know?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The Texans will have most of their secondary healthy thanks to the bye week but I just see them chasing air all day as Jackson runs through them like a hot butter knife. Watson will try to keep it close but he won't be able to stay up.

I honestly think beating Brady will be easier than beating Jackson.

Good Jackson is better than Good Brady these days. But bad Jackson shows up a lot more often than bad Brady. If he is completing passes downfield and Hollywood Brown is beating our secondary deep it will be a long day. They start rolling downhill with a power running game and taking the top off when we creep up.

But if they don't play with a lead and Jackson is forced into obvious passing downs he turns back into a not very accurate 2nd year guy.

I like our chances of beating Baltimore far more than NE. I also think we have the better QB in the game. I just think their coaches have been masterful at getting to what Jackson does well.

[HPF Bob]

I'm sure my comments are tinted with my usual pessimism but the only time I recall the Texans beating the Ravens was that bizarre game when Case Keenum qb'd and Kubiak kept calling trick plays and wildcats to limit his exposure.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

I'm sure my comments are tinted with my usual pessimism but the only time I recall the Texans beating the Ravens was that bizarre game when Case Keenum qb'd and Kubiak kept calling trick plays and wildcats to limit his exposure.

I looked it up and the Texans have beaten Baltimore twice (once in the Keenum game you mentioned and once with Schaub in a 43-13 blowout). They have lost to them 8 times (Savage, Schaub 3Xs, Yates, Rosenfels, Carr 2Xs). That is a pretty ugly history but it's notable DeShaun Watson took part in none of those games. Truly that record is most notable for the embarrassing run of QBs the Texans have started over the years. Schaub's competence looks like Montana next to that list.

[HPF Bob]

Thanks for the research.

True, Watson did not QB any of those games.

[HPF Bob]

Per CBS Sports:

The bye week couldn't have gone any better for the Houston Texans, who went from a borderline wild card team in our last projection to a team that now comfortably sits in the AFC's third slot thanks to losses by both the Colts and Chiefs. The Texans' chances of winning the AFC South are now up to 67.9%, which is more than 10 percent higher than last week (56.5%). Overall, the Texans have an 83.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, which basically makes them a lock in the eyes of the computer.

Do you agree? We have a 16.4% chance of missing the playoffs?

[Keith]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Do you agree? We have a 16.4% chance of missing the playoffs?

What are the chances Watson doesn't play enough of the remaining regular season healthy? I think there is a correlation there.