Mock Draft 1

[jppaul]

1. Detroit Lions: Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma.
The Lions look to start a new era by bringing a symbol of hope. After Matt Ryan’s success this year it is a virtual lock that the Lions will pick a QB, the only question is which one, and most people have Bradford rated higher than Stafford. Therefore, Bradford gets the nod.

2. St. Louis Rams: Andre Smith, OT Alabama
It could be a QB, or the best defensive player here, but with Orlando Pace getting long in the tooth and questions about Alex Barron in general, and the importance of OT, the pick is the massive mauler from Alabama.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: QB Matthew Stafford
Tyler Thigpen is not the answer, and Brodie Coyle can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown anything when he was, for the same reason as Detroit, Stafford is the Chiefs choice. Additionally, I can imagine that

4. Seattle Seahawks: WR Michael Crabtree Texas Tech
The Seattle Seahawks have several needs but foremost among them is the need for a playmaking WR. The last 30 seconds of the Texas-TT game attest to Crabtree’s skills. He is a dominant WR, although I have some questions about his ability to separate at the next level due to a lack of elite speed. I still think he will be great though.

5. Cleveland Browns: OLB/DE Aaron Maybin Penn State
Up to this point the first four picks of the draft seem to be universally agreed upon. They are solid on one side with Wimberly, and on the other they are ancient with McGinest. Time to refresh with new blood. Maybin may be the best of the DEs if he decides to come out.

6. Cincinnati Bengals : OT Eugene Monroe Virginia
The Bengals O-line blew this year serious upgrade is needed. Monroe has great feet and can pass protect really well.

7. Oakland Raiders: WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Michael Oher, Ole Miss
9. Green Bay Packers: CB Malcolm Jenkins, OSU
10. San Francisco 49ers: QB Mark Sanchez, USC
11. Buffalo Bills: OLB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
12. Denver Broncos: ILB Ray Maluaga, USC
13. Washington Redskins: ILB James Lauranitis, OSU
14. New Orleans Saints: CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
15. Houston Texans: S Taylor Mays, USC
16. San Diego Chargers: OLB Brian Orakapo, Texas
17. New York Jets: OLB Brian Cushing, USC
18. Chicago Bears: WR Percy Harvin, Florida
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
20. Detroit Lions: OT Jason Smith, Baylor
21. Arizona Cardinals: RB Chris Beanie Wells, OSU
22. Philadelphia Eagles: DE Everette Brown, Florida State
23. Minnesota Vikings: LB Brandon Spikes, Florida
24. New England Patriots: RB LeSean McCoy, Pitt
25. Atlanta Falcons: TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
26. Miami Dolphins: DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
27. Baltimore Ravens: DT B.J. Raji, Boston College
28. Philadelphia Eagles: RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
29. Indianapolis Colts: DT Terrence Cody, Alabama
30. New York Giants: WR Kenny Britt, Rutgers
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
32. Tennessee Titans: DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Round 2:
43: DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
Round 3:
RB James Davis, Clemson
Round 4:
WR/QB/RB: Pat White, West Virginia
Round 5:
QB Rhett Bhomar, Oklahoma
Round 6:
WR Brandon Tate, North Carolina
Round 7:
CB DeAndre Wright, New Mexico

I got a little lazy after the first 7 but I will add in the reasoning behind the picks later

[mussop]

Originally Posted by jppaul

1. Detroit Lions: Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma.
The Lions look to start a new era by bringing a symbol of hope. After Matt Ryan’s success this year it is a virtual lock that the Lions will pick a QB, the only question is which one, and most people have Bradford rated higher than Stafford. Therefore, Bradford gets the nod.

2. St. Louis Rams: Andre Smith, OT Alabama
It could be a QB, or the best defensive player here, but with Orlando Pace getting long in the tooth and questions about Alex Barron in general, and the importance of OT, the pick is the massive mauler from Alabama.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: QB Matthew Stafford
Tyler Thigpen is not the answer, and Brodie Coyle can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown anything when he was, for the same reason as Detroit, Stafford is the Chiefs choice. Additionally, I can imagine that

4. Seattle Seahawks: WR Michael Crabtree Texas Tech
The Seattle Seahawks have several needs but foremost among them is the need for a playmaking WR. The last 30 seconds of the Texas-TT game attest to Crabtree’s skills. He is a dominant WR, although I have some questions about his ability to separate at the next level due to a lack of elite speed. I still think he will be great though.

5. Cleveland Browns: OLB/DE Aaron Maybin Penn State
Up to this point the first four picks of the draft seem to be universally agreed upon. They are solid on one side with Wimberly, and on the other they are ancient with McGinest. Time to refresh with new blood. Maybin may be the best of the DEs if he decides to come out.

6. Cincinnati Bengals : OT Eugene Monroe Virginia
The Bengals O-line blew this year serious upgrade is needed. Monroe has great feet and can pass protect really well.

7. Oakland Raiders: WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Michael Oher, Ole Miss
9. Green Bay Packers: CB Malcolm Jenkins, OSU
10. San Francisco 49ers: QB Mark Sanchez, USC
11. Buffalo Bills: OLB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
12. Denver Broncos: ILB Ray Maluaga, USC
13. Washington Redskins: ILB James Lauranitis, OSU
14. New Orleans Saints: CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
15. Houston Texans: S Taylor Mays, USC
16. San Diego Chargers: OLB Brian Orakapo, Texas
17. New York Jets: OLB Brian Cushing, USC
18. Chicago Bears: WR Percy Harvin, Florida
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
20. Detroit Lions: OT Jason Smith, Baylor
21. Arizona Cardinals: RB Chris Beanie Wells, OSU
22. Philadelphia Eagles: DE Everette Brown, Florida State
23. Minnesota Vikings: LB Brandon Spikes, Florida
24. New England Patriots: RB LeSean McCoy, Pitt
25. Atlanta Falcons: TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
26. Miami Dolphins: DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
27. Baltimore Ravens: DT B.J. Raji, Boston College
28. Philadelphia Eagles: RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
29. Indianapolis Colts: DT Terrence Cody, Alabama
30. New York Giants: WR Kenny Britt, Rutgers
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
32. Tennessee Titans: DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Round 2:
43: DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
Round 3:
RB James Davis, Clemson
Round 4:
WR/QB/RB: Pat White, West Virginia
Round 5:
QB Rhett Bhomar, Oklahoma
Round 6:
WR Brandon Tate, North Carolina
Round 7:
CB DeAndre Wright, New Mexico

I got a little lazy after the first 7 but I will add in the reasoning behind the picks later

RB LeSean McCoy, Pitt & DT Terrence Cody, Alabama are staying last I heard.

Nice work though.

[NBT]

Round one candidate would be ok, but I doubt the rest of the picks would still be there when we get around to picking. Nice draft though.

[barrett]

15. Houston Texans: S Taylor Mays, USC
Round 2:
43: DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
Round 3:
RB James Davis, Clemson
Round 4:
WR/QB/RB: Pat White, West Virginia
Round 5:
QB Rhett Bhomar, Oklahoma
Round 6:
WR Brandon Tate, North Carolina
Round 7:
CB DeAndre Wright, New Mexico

Round 1 looks good. Don't know anything about Johnson but if he has speed off the edge I'd be happy. Likewise about Davis if he has size.

Pat White - I am only ok with this if he can be a big special teams contributor (returns and coverage). Otherwise I would say the 4th round is too high for a luxury/project pick. But if he can play some ST for us than I like it. Would give us a wildcat style wrinkle and could find ways to contribute at WR.

Bhomar would seem to be a fit in our offense skill set wise (mobile and strong armed), but I always hated him personality wise. I don't like fake tough guy QBs who like to talk trash after plays (Steven McGee, Philip Rivers, Bhomar). I prefer the level headed type at QB (schaub).

Don't know anything about 6 or 7 but CBs make good ST players. I doubt we draft a WR unless Jacoby is cut loose before camp. Otherwise I would gues we just pick up a few UDFA at WR.

[HPF Bob]

Since Bradford and Crabtree are sophomores, there was some question as to whether they would be eligible to declare for the draft. I checked the official websites of both schools and confirmed they both had redshirt seasons in 2006.
The NFL says they can waive their remaining college eligibility if they are three years past their high school class graduating so, as redshirt sophomores, both Bradford and Crabtree can elect to go pro this spring.

[nero THE zero]

MJ slipping to us in the second would be quite the pleasant surprise.

[Bigtinylittle]

I don't think Orakpo will still be on the board at 15. If he is, I will be surprised if we pass him up. I think an improved pass rush is the Texans number one need, and I think Kubiak and Smith agree.

I also don't see Sanchez as a top ten pick. He had a tremendous amount of offensive talent surrounding him this year, and in my opinion should have looked better.

Also, we were lucky enough to be able to trade down last year. If can do it this year too, that would be my preference, but I doubt if we get a good enough offer.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

I don't think Orakpo will still be on the board at 15. If he is, I will be surprised if we pass him up. I think an improved pass rush is the Texans number one need, and I think Kubiak and Smith agree.

I also don't see Sanchez as a top ten pick. He had a tremendous amount of offensive talent surrounding him this year, and in my opinion should have looked better.

Also, we were lucky enough to be able to trade down last year. If can do it this year too, that would be my preference, but I doubt if we get a good enough offer.

Certainly a pass rusher opposite Mario is a priority but I am not so sure that we invest another first round pick in a DL. That would make 5 in 6 years. That would tie up a substantial amount of money in our Dline, more than is already tied up in the front four.

I think they go another position in the first round and then come back in the second for a pass rush specialist like MJ, or Jerry Hughes, in the second or third round. Most likely the second.

As far as Orakpo goes, he is a talent, and could just as easily be selected in the top 15, but I think if faced with teh decision between Orakpo and Mays, for the reasons stated, we would go with Mays.

Sanchez is shooting up charts after his rose bowl performance and could easily be selected in the top 10, by his "home town" team (or just about), if you recall the 49ers wanted to make this exact selection with Matt Lienart but he didn't come out that year. They could also go defense with Singletary at the helm and look for an impact player there.

[Bigtinylittle]

You could be right about Sanchez, but as I said, he was surrounded by as much offensive talent as just about any QB in history. USC has tremendous athletes at almost every offensive position. Playing QB there has got to be the easiest job in the country. Look at Leinart. Heismann trophy at USC and now struggling in the NFL. Look at Reggie Bush. He was a world beater at USC. Put him in the NFL where the talent on the other teams is roughly equal, and Bush becomes less than ordinary. Did you ever watch the size of the holes Bush had at USC? I used to wonder when he was at USC what he was going to do when he didn't have those enormous holes to run through. That's why I wasn't one of the guys who were mad that we didn't draft him. That makes me wonder about Sanchez. Is he for real or just a product of the USC machine?

[jppaul]

Its a valid question, and teams often look at prospects harder because of the talent they are surrounded by or the scheme they run. For instance, the knock on Slaton was that he ran the spread, and he too had some cavernous holes to run through.

It just makes the evaluation more difficult. Along the lines of what you were saying, Sanchez's success in the rose bowl was more a function of the offensive game plan than any spectacular decision making or plays on his part.

How may times did they throw that same skinny post in the seam to exploit Penn State's Cover 3? They were the exact same throw each time, they were good throws but nothing spectacular.

Still I believe that Sanchez has first round talent, and I believe that San Fran might look at him in the first, because Alex Smith is not the answer, Shaun Hill's success is more a function of Martz offense than anything else. And as we have seen Martz offense transforms servicable QB's into something more, in the same way that Jeff Tedford's scheme does.

On the other hand, it has only been 3? years since they drafted Smith and that might be too close, temporally, to the last time they got burnt by a # 1.

[nunusguy]

Seems to me that Kubiak/Smith are struggling almost as much to Draft/sign-FA playmaker DLinemen as Capers had to acquire OLBs for his 3-4 ?
OK Mario is a success, a great success but that's only 1 out of the 3 big deals because they've wiffed badly on Weaver and Okoye, after the completion of his second full season, is not looking like a first-round talent least of all a top 10 pick ?

[mussop]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Seems to me that Kubiak/Smith are struggling almost as much to Draft/sign-FA playmaker DLinemen as Capers had to acquire OLBs for his 3-4 ?
OK Mario is a success, a great success but that's only 1 out of the 3 big deals because they've wiffed badly on Weaver and Okoye, after the completion of his second full season, is not looking like a first-round talent least of all a top 10 pick ?

The thing is the kid is still just a kid. This is why we signed him to a 6 year deal. Everyone knew it would take awhile. I really dont expect much from him for another year.

Wasnt Weaver a product of Casserly as GM?

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by mussop

Wasnt Weaver a product of Casserly as GM?

It was Kubiaks call to convert to a 4-3 and Weaver was his choice as much as Casserly's to fill the strongside DE position.
BTW Casserly and not Smith was Kubiak's GM for the 2006 Draft, which was easily the best Draft the Texans have ever had.

[Bigtinylittle]

I think it will always be a bit of a mystery as to who was responsible for the selections in that draft. Weaver has had some health problems since he was signed, and if he had stayed healthy maybe we would have a better opinion of that signing.

I was all for the Okoye pick, but in hindsight I think Willis is a no brainer. I still wonder whether Okoye isn't being misused, and am hoping the new DC uses him more as a penetrater. I thought that was what we got him for.

By the way, I'm not stuck on the idea we must go D-line. We have enough weaknesses on this team that we could go with a number of positions and it wouln't bother me.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

It was Kubiaks call to convert to a 4-3 and Weaver was his choice as much as Casserly's to fill the strongside DE position.
BTW Casserly and not Smith was Kubiak's GM for the 2006 Draft, which was easily the best Draft the Texans have ever had.

Yes he was, and it was also well known that Casserly was a lame duck. I'm not saying Casserly didn't have any input, but he definitely had diminished power when it came to making the final call on the picks.

OK Mario is a success, a great success but that's only 1 out of the 3 big deals because they've wiffed badly on Weaver and Okoye, after the completion of his second full season, is not looking like a first-round talent least of all a top 10 pick ?

Like mussop said Okoye was 19 when we drafted him to play one of the toughest positions in the game. He showed flashes early in his rookie year. He was hurt most of this year, but I thought he played much better over the last few games. I'll be ready to make some kind of judgment on him once we get through a good portion of next season. 3 years is the minimum to really judge a draft pick. Some guys give you a pretty good idea before that sure, but with Okoye's age and position I'm not close to calling him a bust.

[Keith]

Okoye is probably still younger than most of the DTs in this draft, right? That was my biggest beef with the selection at the time... that the Texans were going to be paying this starlet millions (I think he probably cashed around $9 or $10 million already) with the built-in age excuse for any performance deficiency.

It's not that it isn't a valid excuse - it is - but it really clouds any ability to really evaluate Okoye's first couple years in the league, especially at his position. I think if he were 24 or 25 right now with two years under his belt, there would be less doubt cast on any evaluation. That said, he seemed to be misused in the scheme this year. Hopefully the new DC will rectify that.

Back on topic, nice effort jppaul. January mocks are like miniature time capsules when the real thing rolls around in April, and while they might look radically different four months later, they help us gauge our perceptions as they change over that timespan.

[NBT]

Speaking of DL coach, I hear Jethro reupped with his old USC team from 3 years ago.

[Roy P]

As I look at how the Eagles use Broderick Bunkley and Mike Patterson, I wonder how much more productive Travis Johnson and Okoye would be in a penetrating defense. Instead of engaging with the OL and then reading where the ball is, I'd love to see them getting up field and disrupting things behind the line of scrimmage. Who we get as our Def Coordinator and DL coach, will determine how smart a move it was in drafting Okoye instead of Patrick Willis.

[jppaul]

Just noticed that the ESPN big board has changed and in recognition that there is not a chance that Taylor Mays will be around when we select:

1. Andre Smith* OT Alabama 98
2. Aaron Curry OLB Wake For. 98
3. Michael Crabtree** WR Texas Tech 98
4. Eugene Monroe OT Virginia 97
5. Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State 97
6. Taylor Mays* S USC 91
7. Aaron Maybin** DE/OLB Penn State 96
8. Gerald McCoy* DT Oklahoma 96
9. Sam Bradford** QB Oklahoma 96
10. Brian Orakpo DE Texas 95
11. Jason Smith OT Baylor 95
12. Mark Sanchez* QB USC 95
13. Matthew Stafford* QB Georgia 94
14. Jeremy Maclin** WR Missouri 94
15. Knowshon Moreno** RB Georgia 94
16. Jermaine Gresham* TE Oklahoma 94
17. B.J. Raji* DT Boston Coll. 93
18. Vontae Davis* CB Illinois 93
19. Brandon Pettigrew TE Okla. State 93
20. Rey Maualuga ILB USC 93
21. Everette Brown* DE Florida State 93
22. Russell Okung* OT Okla. State 92
23. Brandon Spikes* ILB Florida 92
24. Tyson Jackson DE LSU 92
25. James Laurinaitis ILB Ohio State 91
26. Brian Cushing OLB USC 91
27. Michael Oher OT Mississippi 91
28. Chris Wells* RB Ohio State 91
29. Percy Harvin* WR Florida 91
30. Greg Hardy* DE Mississippi 91
31. Terrence Cody* DT Alabama 91
32. Jerry Hughes** DE TCU 90

The prospect of a capped year is bringing out the best of the underclassmen. This is easily one of the best underclassmen drafts I have seen.

Just judging by what they say will be available when we draft, I like:

Maluluaga because I think he is an ideal candidate to shift to Strongside linebacker or we could shift Demeco outside. He is a real thumper, with great athleticism. I like Laurnitis to be a strongside linebacker. I also like Cushing. I know LB is not a need position but I think it could be a huge bump to our line to add an elite LB>

I am not sold on Everette Brown but might look at Beanie Wells for a one two punch.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by jppaul

Just noticed that the ESPN big board has changed and in recognition that there is not a chance that Taylor Mays will be around when we select:

1. Andre Smith* OT Alabama 98
2. Aaron Curry OLB Wake For. 98
3. Michael Crabtree** WR Texas Tech 98
4. Eugene Monroe OT Virginia 97
5. Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State 97
6. Taylor Mays* S USC 91
7. Aaron Maybin** DE/OLB Penn State 96
8. Gerald McCoy* DT Oklahoma 96
9. Sam Bradford** QB Oklahoma 96
10. Brian Orakpo DE Texas 95
11. Jason Smith OT Baylor 95
12. Mark Sanchez* QB USC 95
13. Matthew Stafford* QB Georgia 94
14. Jeremy Maclin** WR Missouri 94
15. Knowshon Moreno** RB Georgia 94
16. Jermaine Gresham* TE Oklahoma 94
17. B.J. Raji* DT Boston Coll. 93
18. Vontae Davis* CB Illinois 93
19. Brandon Pettigrew TE Okla. State 93
20. Rey Maualuga ILB USC 93
21. Everette Brown* DE Florida State 93
22. Russell Okung* OT Okla. State 92
23. Brandon Spikes* ILB Florida 92
24. Tyson Jackson DE LSU 92
25. James Laurinaitis ILB Ohio State 91
26. Brian Cushing OLB USC 91
27. Michael Oher OT Mississippi 91
28. Chris Wells* RB Ohio State 91
29. Percy Harvin* WR Florida 91
30. Greg Hardy* DE Mississippi 91
31. Terrence Cody* DT Alabama 91
32. Jerry Hughes** DE TCU 90

The prospect of a capped year is bringing out the best of the underclassmen. This is easily one of the best underclassmen drafts I have seen.

Just judging by what they say will be available when we draft, I like:

Maluluaga because I think he is an ideal candidate to shift to Strongside linebacker or we could shift Demeco outside. He is a real thumper, with great athleticism. I like Laurnitis to be a strongside linebacker. I also like Cushing. I know LB is not a need position but I think it could be a huge bump to our line to add an elite LB>

I am not sold on Everette Brown but might look at Beanie Wells for a one two punch.

Out of whats left??? Give me Raji 7 days a week and twice on sunday.