Trade Down With Philly?

[HPF Bob]

The Eagels have two #1s (21 and 28) plus a second (53) and are looking to move up. Doing the math by trade chart, Houston's (15) is worth 1050 points. The 28th and 53rd = 1030. Perhaps we can get a 6th to make the numbers completely balance but within 20 points is close enough.

With a low first and a pair of seconds, the Texans can look at rush ends and safeties or possibly an OLB or a running back.

If you want to trade down to 21, that's 800 points so you're talking about a third or a fourth to go with it, instead of a second. Thoughts?

[Roy P]

I'll trade down to #21 and hopefully still be able to get LB Clay Matthews. #28 is too far of a trade down for me to still be able to realistically get one of my 1st round targets. Also, going by the trade chart, I should be able to garner Philly's 85th pick (165 points) and 121st pick (52 points). Most of my core guys are in the 3rd and 4th rounds, so there should be talented players there who can help the roster.

Just for the sake of argument, I went to THR's computer mock and used my draft board. This is what happened after a trade down with Philly.

#21 LB Clay Matthews USC
#46 SS William Moore Missouri
#77 DE Lawrence Sidbury Richmond
#85 LB Gerald McGrath Southern Miss
#112 RB Cedric Peerman Virginia
#121 FS David Bruton Notre Dame
#122 DE Kyle Moore USC
#152 QB Stephen McGee Texas A&M
#188 RB Javarris Williams Tenn State
#223 CB Don Carey Norfolk State

I'd be quite pleased with this draft. I even get a QB to groom

[idymoe]

I wouldn't be very excited moving down to 28 and picking up a pick in the lower half of the second round. I think it would be worth moving that far down for a pick in the upper part of the second round, but that wouldn't be with Philly. If Philly would take our 15 and 45 for their 21, 28 and 157 (5th round), I would like that. With that trade, using Draftek, we could go something like:

21. Darius Butler
28. Conner Barwin
77. Rashad Jennings
112. Michael Hamlin
122. Zack Follett
152. Pat White
157. Sebastian Vollmer
188. Roy Miller
223. Ian Johnson

I doubt my two first round picks would be too popular, but you should have Moreno, Vontae Davis, Harvin, Donald Brown, Alphonso Smith, Michael Johnson, Ayers, Sintim, Mack, Unger, Wood, Ziggy Hood, LeSean McCoy, Sean Smith, Ron Brace, Jarron Gilbert, Louis Delmas, and Paul Kruger, among others. I like two from that list better than 15 and 45, and the 5th rounder is icing.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Roy P

This is what happened after a trade down with Philly.

#21 LB Clay Matthews USC
#46 SS William Moore Missouri
#77 DE Lawrence Sidbury Richmond
#85 LB Gerald McGrath Southern Miss
#112 RB Cedric Peerman Virginia
#121 FS David Bruton Notre Dame
#122 DE Kyle Moore USC
#152 QB Stephen McGee Texas A&M
#188 RB Javarris Williams Tenn State
#223 CB Don Carey Norfolk State

I'd be quite pleased with this draft. I even get a QB to groom

I ran this scenario with DraftTek and was "working against myself" so to speak. Houston selected Matthews at #15 so he wasn't available at #21. Anyway, this is how it turned out.

#21 RB Donald Brown Connecticut
#46 FS William Moore Missouri
#77 SS Chip Vaughn Wake Forest
#85 TE Shawn Nelson Southern Miss
#112 CB Keenan Lewis Oregon St
#121 LB Scott McKillop Pittsburgh
#122 RB Javarris Williams Tenn State
#152 QB John Parker Wilson Alabama
#188 DT Roy Miller Texas
#223 DE Victor Butler Oregon St


I know that there is a lot of negativity towards a 1st round RB, but Matthews was off the board. Donald Brown would be a very good 1b behind Slaton and able to start if Slaton were injured. Moore and Vaughn along with Lewis gives a lot of help to the "back end" that Kubiak talked about. At #85, I didn't go looking for a TE, but Nelson was too good to pass up and should help out in the Red Zone. He's not exactly Mark Bruener in run blocking, but he looks sufficient.

I've discussed my 2nd day picks before, but just wanted to reinforce Butler's pass-rushing specialist skills. I see him as a similar player to UConn's Cody Brown, who is rated much higher. I also considered Pierre Walters here.

[Roy P]

I really like the scenario where we trade down to #21. If EVERYTHING fell into place, this would be my perfect draft.

#21 WLB Clay Matthews USC 6 '3 1/8" 240 4.62
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/504552
Showing burst off the snap as a hybrid defensive end and surprising fluidity and instincts in coverage, Matthews posted 56 tackles and finished third on the team in tackles for loss (9.5) and second in sacks (4.5).
Reliable open-field tackler. Versatile defender who flashes as a natural pass rusher off the edge. Good speed upfield and has the balance and burst to redirect his rush. Good initial hand punch to pop the blocker and disengage. Good effort and speed in pursuit. Instinctive defender who played well in space as a traditional linebacker. Excellent special teams player.
Index : 5.46

#46 OC Eric Wood Louisville 6' 4" 310 5.19
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/522812
Compares To: ERIC MANGOLD, New York Jets -- Both centers are savvy blockers who might lack the devastating hand punch to shock an opponent, but both play with good mirror ability and urgency. Wood is alert to twists and games and while he is stiff in his hips, he does fire off the snap quickly to attack his opponent.
Index : 5.0

#77 RB Andre Brown NC State 6' 0 1/8" 224 4.47
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/584399
He gets most of his yardage up the middle, demonstrating the speed and strength to fire into the pile and push it.
If you are looking for a very explosive north-south runner, Brown is the perfect fit. He moves on the ball's snap with no hesitation and it is rare to see him false step. He has great timing at the mesh point and while he lacks loose hips, this is a player with explosive speed, one that can consistently make defenders miss when exploding up the hole. He makes quick decisions and has a sudden burst past the line of scrimmage.
Index : 5.37

#85 SS Chip Vaughn Wake Forest 6' 1 3/8" 221 4.45
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/516539
Vaughn has averaged 90 tackles and has developed a reputation for making big plays in crucial situations. Blessed with rare size and hitting ability, Vaughn is sure to intrigue teams looking for an enforcer and in-the-box presence at safety.
Index : 5.42

#112 DE Cody Brown Connecticut 6' 2" 244 4.76
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/565732
Denied all-Big East honors in 2007, despite 16.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks, because of the talent in the conference. Conference coaches were right to acknowledge his 2008 production, however, and did so -- granting Brown first-team accolades after his 55 tackle, 16.5 tackle for loss, 11 sacks and five forced fumbles made him arguably the conference's most explosive defender.
Index : 5.29

#121 CB Keenan Lewis Oregon St 6' 0 3/4" 195 4.47
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/504720
A 45-game starter, Lewis has the experience in the pass-happy Pac-10 to be able to make an early contribution to an NFL franchise. Blessed with a long, lanky build, strong hand punch and an explosive burst to close, Lewis is well-suited to the aggressive man-to-man schemes Oregon State prefers. He lacks the eye-popping athleticism and gaudy interception totals to warrant a first-round pick, but could ultimately be a better NFL corner than players drafted ahead of him.
Index : 5.40

#122 SLB Scott McKillop Pittsburgh 6' 1" 243 4.72
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/516918
Productive, instinctual player who sorts through the trash to get to the ballcarrier, seems to have an innate sense of how and when to slide through oncoming blockers. … Very good backfield awareness, always seems to know where the ball is. … Recognizes tight ends going out on delayed routes. … Breaks down well in space and makes secure tackles in the open field. … Can get to the outside to meet the back at the edge. … Drops quickly and hustles to meet receivers in intermediate routes. … Gets a good hit on slot receivers to knock them off their route. … Knows where the sticks are and tries his best to keep underneath receivers from getting there.
Index : 5.58

#152 FS Chris Clemons Clemson 6' 0" 208 4.38
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/502303
Lanky build with room for additional growth. … Has at least adequate pure game speed to be the last line of defense. … Takes good angles in pursuit. … Reads the quarterback and gets a jump on the ball. … Flashes a late burst to close. … Good open-field tackler. … Has the lateral quickness and balance to break down in space and wraps up. … Agile enough to slip blocks and make tackles near the line of scrimmage. …
Index : 5.09

#188 RB Javarris Williams Tenn State 5' 9 1/2" 223 4.51
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1248564
He runs with good body lean and works to finish while maintaining balance. He has a good feel for reading his blockers and will get the hard yards up the middle when he keeps his shoulders squared. The thing you see on film is Williams' pick-and-vision when running inside. He does a good job of picking up his feet and is functionally nimble working through tight areas.
Index : 5.05

#223 DT Roy Miller Texas 6' 1" 310 4.98
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1123389
A veteran of 49 games with the Longhorns, Miller leaves with 138 career tackles, 25 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks including 49-11-5.5 as a senior in earning first-team All-Big 12 honors as voted by the conference coaches.
Good lower-leg drive and use of leverage to hold up as a nose guard. … Can anchor against the double-team and create a pile. … Flashes some initial and lateral quickness as a pass rusher. … Quick hands and impressive upper-body strength to disengage from blocks and make tackles at the point of attack. … Flashes some explosiveness as a hitter. … High-effort player who will pursue down the line. …
Index : 5.31

[idymoe]

That would be a great draft, alright. That CBSsports website is very interesting, by the way. I have it bookmarked, now.

[TexanJedi]

I think of all the teams that might like to move up Philly is the best bet. We need Detroit to take Stafford or Sanchez at 1, then the other tackles not named Oher to be gone by 15. The Eagles worried that San Diego or Detroit might take a tackle phone the Texans and trade picks - hopefully Jenkins is still on the board and New Orleans decides they can't pass. Ideally, Matthews is still on the board at 21, the Texans get their man and an extra 3rd rounder like last year. Getting 6 players in the first 4 rounds could give the Texans nice depth.

Regarding which LB the Texans might target, I think we need to ask who the Texans have more faith in, Diles or Adibi? Diles was all over the field last year, until his unfortunate injury. He should be fine and we have depth with Bentley. Adibi was really active when he saw the field, but between his weight concerns (hopefully no longer a problem) and the fact that we have no depth after releasing Greenwood, I would say a Will LB is more likely. The Texans also looked at Burnett in free agency and I think given his size Will would have been his position here in Houston. Matthews seems to be a better fit at Will than Cushing. By taking the versatile Matthews I'm sure the Texans can create some packages to get him and Adibi on the field at the same time during certain situations.

[mussop]

Stupid question after reading some of youre posts.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The Eagels have two #1s (21 and 28) plus a second (53) and are looking to move up. Doing the math by trade chart, Houston's (15) is worth 1050 points. The 28th and 53rd = 1030. Perhaps we can get a 6th to make the numbers completely balance but within 20 points is close enough.

Now that the Giants have released Burress, they may be looking to move up with that extra pick they have for Shockey. #29 + #45 = 1090 points. Would you be willing to go down to #29 for "just" #45 as compensation? #45 is worth 450 points. Now Detroit could swap us #65 + #82 for that #45. The other option is New England trading #58 + #89 for that #45.

Why not deal with the Tuna? He's got extra picks. #25 + #56 = 1060 points.

Perhaps the Patriots would like Matthews at #15. #23 + #58 = 1080 points.

Just doing my due dilligence to see how I can get more 2nd and 3rd round picks.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Now that the Giants have released Burress, they may be looking to move up with that extra pick they have for Shockey. #29 + #45 = 1090 points. Would you be willing to go down to #29 for "just" #45 as compensation? #45 is worth 450 points. Now Detroit could swap us #65 + #82 for that #45. The other option is New England trading #58 + #89 for that #45.

Why not deal with the Tuna? He's got extra picks. #25 + #56 = 1060 points.

Perhaps the Patriots would like Matthews at #15. #23 + #58 = 1080 points.

Just doing my due dilligence to see how I can get more 2nd and 3rd round picks.

How about the more likely case of dropping 4-6 spots once and then do that again with another team. That would would get you two more 3rds, most likely. Then two 3rds gets you back into the 2nd if you see someone you have to have. That is a lot of wheeling dealing, but the value in this draft is between #25 to the early 3rd round. So the more picks the merrier.

[Roy P]

Well that is a possibility, I was just looking to see which team has "extra" picks that they may feel as if they are playing with house money. I have seen the idea floated that we could trade up using our "extra" 4th round pick that we got for Sage. If we are willing to perhaps trade down to #28 with Philly, we should also consider New England, Miami, and New York Giants. It's hard to say which scenario is more likely unless you have spoken with the GMs of those teams.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The Eagels have two #1s (21 and 28) plus a second (53) and are looking to move up. Doing the math by trade chart, Houston's (15) is worth 1050 points. The 28th and 53rd = 1030. Perhaps we can get a 6th to make the numbers completely balance but within 20 points is close enough.

Saw a purported revised draft pick value chart reported/supported on PFT from a year ago, brought up again recently on the site.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/...t-trade-chart/

As we know, the cost to move up is probably too high, especially in the top ten or so of the first round. But if this new chart were the one used to evaluate a move down with the Eagles, the compensation changes some.

15 = 1140 points

28 = 770 points
53 = 370 points

...which conveniently equals EXACTLY 1140 points, eliminating the need for any additional trade compensation. So, should this be the deal, something to keep in mind before judging the GMs.

[Blitzwood]

Using this trade scenario, I have the Texans trading their 15th for Phili's 28, 53, and 141(5th rounder) to sweeten the pot.

28. Percy Harvin RB/WR- since having a good F.A. signings, Texans go for best value here and take the extremely versatile Harvin; teams are going to be faced with a tough dilemma when they play the Texans because if they choose to double A.J.,then K.Walters, O.Daniels, and Percy Harvin (who can line up anywhere) are going to have single coverage. He also will spell S. Slaton at RB and slot.

46. Sean Smith CB- terrific cover and ball skills, very agile for a 6-3 DB, could start in spot duty if D. Robinson can't stay healthy or start at FS.

53. Rashad Jennings RB- big powerback, strong and durable, perfect for goalline and short yardage situations.

77. Chip Vaughn SS- does a good job against the run, high motor, very productive

112. Jason Williams OLB- very fast with above average cover skills, reliable tackler

122. Chris Baker DT- 6-2, 325 lbs, 4.94 forty, 1.65 10 yard, 35" vert., enough said!

141. S. Vollmer OT- RT backup

152. Lee Robinson OLB- depth for an injury plagued LB corp.

188. Phillip Hunt DE- LDE depth since we have none

223. Ray Feinga OG- Solid in pass protection and run blocking, quick feet

UFA-Herb Donaldson RB

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Blitzwood

122. Chris Baker DT- 6-2, 325 lbs, 4.94 forty, 1.65 10 yard, 35" vert., enough said!

Enough said? How about this?

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1661883

Baker struggled with off-field incidents at Penn State. He was suspended from the team at the end of the 2007 season and finally dismissed from the Nittany Lions in July 2008 after pleading guilty to two counts of misdemeanor assault and criminal trespass following two fights in 2007. He received two years of probation. Baker showed versatility playing at defensive end in a 3-4 after starting the year at nose tackle for Hampton. He earned first-team All-MEAC honors with 62 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Baker and his family decided it was time to leave the Pirates after his redshirt junior season, but character concerns follow him into the NFL.

[Blitzwood]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Enough said? How about this?

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1661883

Baker struggled with off-field incidents at Penn State. He was suspended from the team at the end of the 2007 season and finally dismissed from the Nittany Lions in July 2008 after pleading guilty to two counts of misdemeanor assault and criminal trespass following two fights in 2007. He received two years of probation. Baker showed versatility playing at defensive end in a 3-4 after starting the year at nose tackle for Hampton. He earned first-team All-MEAC honors with 62 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Baker and his family decided it was time to leave the Pirates after his redshirt junior season, but character concerns follow him into the NFL.

Roy,


maybe I should have chosen my words better, but if bringing up the campus fight is your biggest complaint, then go ahead and complain......
I never said he was a model citizen. At least he's got some fire in his belly, which is more than I can say about Okam or T.J...

And speaking of Okam, the coaching staff knew about his lack of dedication and heart at Texas before they drafted him, but they felt the risk/reward was worth it.

I just wonder if they'll take a risk on a guy with the opposite problem...

Baker has outstanding athleticism for a guy his size to go along with a nasty demeanor, which is probably what got him in trouble in the first place, who knows, maybe somebody else started it,... but the Texans have rolled the dice on players with potential in the later rounds before, maybe they'd want to project him next to Okam and lite a fire under him and finally get him motivated, I'm fine with that...
I'd rather have a guy with too much fire, than a player with a real lack of motivation and heart.

Also from cbssports.com(pay attention to the last sentence):

Adequate build in the upper and lower body. … Good quickness off the snap. … Gets his hands into his man's jersey quickly, attacks a shoulder and constantly works to the quarterback. … Can also extend his arms inside the numbers to get leverage and push into the backfield. … Also able to stand up his man on run plays, use his upper-body strength to move him to either side and make a play on the ball. … Uses arm-over move and violent hands to shoot the gap inside. … Will split double-team blocks to pressure the passer. … At end, he held his ground against the run and used his strength, hands and quickness to get by offensive tackles one-on-one. … Shows fairly quick feet, can stay off cut blocks, chase down the line and hustle downfield to get to the ball. … Doesn't back down from anyone.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Blitzwood

if bringing up the campus fight is your biggest complaint, then go ahead and complain......
I never said he was a model citizen. At least he's got some fire in his belly, which is more than I can say about Okam or T.J...


… Doesn't back down from anyone.

I am complaining about a pattern of behavior.

Travis Johnson has some "fire in his belly". Remember when he didn't back down from Trent Green? I'd rather not bring in a bunch of thugs in order to bring some "attitude" to the defense.

This may be a high risk/reward guy, but I think there is better value with less risk. It takes a lot than just getting into a fight, to get kicked off the football team at Penn State. Just ask Maurice Evans.