How good is our offense, really?

[Joshua]

While the Texans' offense has racked up some impressive numbers this year, something about it has still troubled me (ignoring the obvious-turnovers) and I think I've finally put my finger on it. Despite the gaudy numbers, we are not that good at executing when the other team has a pretty good idea of what's coming.

I already knew this was the case in short yardage situations. However, this was really driven home for me when it was noted in the Green Bay game that the Texans were 0 for 29 in 3rd and 9 or longer situations. Also, I think we are all aware of our mediocre play in the red zone.

Good running teams can still run the ball even when the D knows it's coming. Good passing teams can still make plays in the passing game even when the D knows its coming. Our short yardage and 3rd and long stats suggest that we're not good at either when the other team knows it's coming. If the other team can either tee off on the run or the pass without worrying about being fooled, we are consistently losing those battles. Thus, despite the big offensive numbers, we rarely just line up and beat the other team.

While I'm probably a little more pessimistic than necessary (and I do realize that the D is still the greater concern), I'm not sure our offense is quite as good as the numbers suggest.