2012 Draft Needs?

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

You may be right. We have apparently got 54 players under contract including Cody.

I guess that includes RFA Adrian Foster and Quentin Demps.

Texans seem to have 15 FA , several on Oline, so keeping that consistency may be high priority.

Unrestricted Free Agents )

QB Jake Delhomme
QB Jeff Garcia
RB Derrick Ward
WR Bryant Johnson
TE Joel Dreessen
OG Mike Brisiel
OC Chris Myers
OG Kasey Studdard
DT Tim Bulman
LB Tim Dobbins
LB Mario Williams
CB Jason Allen
S Dominique Barber
K Neil Rackers
P Matt Turk

Delhomme just retired. Garcia, Johnson and Turk can be scratched off the list. Ward, Dreesen, Studdard, Bulman, Dobbins, Allen and Barber are back-ups and thus non-essential. I'm ambivalent about Rackers, So that really leaves Brisiel, Myers and Mario as the key players. I want Mario re-signed but mostly as a trade chip we can hopefully barter for draft choices or upgrades but if he stays with the Texans, I'm good with that too.

Deep down, I still think Mario is a 4-3 DE and has major trade value as such.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Deep down, I still think Mario is a 4-3 DE and has major trade value as such.

Deep down I think Mario had five sacks in five games playing a brand new position in a defense he didn't understand very well. A rotation of Mario, Connor and Brooks would be outrageous. Tom Brady can't throw a first down pass to Wes Welker if he's on his ass.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by chuck

A rotation of Mario, Connor and Brooks would be outrageous.

But you can only play two of them at a time. I understand, this adds depth and perhaps you can move Mario down to DE in obvious pass situations.

To me, this is like the Cardinals and Albert Pujols. No question Pujols is a great player and his absence leaves a hole in the Cardinals lineup but the cost to keep Pujols would keep them from upgrading other positions for a decade. They were smart to lose him, just as the Rangers were smart to get rid of A-Rod.

Likewise, the Texans will miss Mario's abilities if he goes elsewhere but his absence - if done right - allows us the freedom to upgrade elsewhere and, as we could see from Mario's injury the second half of this season, the Texans can still play very well without him.

Dealing Mario is not like dealing Hunter Pence where it is done just to dump salary. Dealing Mario is to upgrade the entire roster because of the talent we can get back and the cap flexibility it gives us.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

But you can only play two of them at a time. I understand, this adds depth and perhaps you can move Mario down to DE in obvious pass situations.

To me, this is like the Cardinals and Albert Pujols. No question Pujols is a great player and his absence leaves a hole in the Cardinals lineup but the cost to keep Pujols would keep them from upgrading other positions for a decade. They were smart to lose him, just as the Rangers were smart to get rid of A-Rod.

Likewise, the Texans will miss Mario's abilities if he goes elsewhere but his absence - if done right - allows us the freedom to upgrade elsewhere and, as we could see from Mario's injury the second half of this season, the Texans can still play very well without him.

Dealing Mario is not like dealing Hunter Pence where it is done just to dump salary. Dealing Mario is to upgrade the entire roster because of the talent we can get back and the cap flexibility it gives us.

Look at the Giants. They have now beaten two unbeatable teams with unstoppable passing offenses in the last 4 years. There are only so many Bradys, Brees and Rodgers in the NFL. So you either have one of those guys, or you have the ability to stop one of those guys or you go home sad at the end of the year. And we don't have one of those guys and won't anytime soon. So unless we can stop those guys we won't sniff a title. And there is only one way to stop them and that is the pass rush.

The Giants this year have Kiawanuka, Unemiyora, Tuck, and Pierre-Paul and they have no problems with having too many to play at once even though all are basically DEs. In fact they didn't turn the corner defensively until Tuck came back.

There is no #2WR, LT, #2CB, #2MLB, NT, PR, or any other non-essential postion that will push us past a team like GB next year (or NE who should be much better than this year). Only an upgrade at QB or in the pass rush will do it. I don't think we have the guts to change our QB, so that leaves pass rush. It is the 2nd most important piece of a football team. When we had it in the 2nd half Sunday we neutered Flacco. When we didn't hit him for the first 25 minutes they scored 17 points.

If we are looking to make a trade because we have 3 pass rushers than we are the dumbest team in football. And if we look at our 3 pass rushers and say, "Lets get rid of the hands down best of the 3." Then the closest we'll get to a superbowl is the next time we host.

[HPF Bob]

Okay, let's throw out a hypothetical here. Suppose we franchise Mario and then trade him for a first and second rounder. Just so I'm not stacking the deck for myself, let's say the deal is with Seattle for #11 and #44.

Let's say that at #11 we take a Mario replacement just so we don't here whining about trading him and we select Quinton Coples of North Carolina or Courtney Upshaw of Alabama. Coples has the size to play at DE as well. Pass rush addressed.

With our own #27, we select WR Kendall Wright of Baylor to give us a legit deep threat. If Wright is gone, we take SS Mark Barron of Alabama to help with the secondary.

At #44, we go get the WR of DB we didn't get at 27 or possibly upgrade at DT or OL.

Then, with the additional cap space from not signing Mario, we go after a free agent wide receiver from the list provided on another thread (maybe a Colston or a Vincent Jackson).

Now you've addressed the #2 WR problem, possibly twice, replaced Mario as a pass rusher and helped out our secondary, all for the money we would have spent on just Mario and our own #1.

This is just one possibility and I wasn't even talking about "best case".

Are you going to tell me that's not an upgrade?

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Okay, let's throw out a hypothetical here. Suppose we franchise Mario and then trade him for a first and second rounder. Just so I'm not stacking the deck for myself, let's say the deal is with Seattle for #11 and #44.

Let's say that at #11 we take a Mario replacement just so we don't here whining about trading him and we select Quinton Coples of North Carolina or Courtney Upshaw of Alabama. Coples has the size to play at DE as well. Pass rush addressed.

With our own #27, we select WR Kendall Wright of Baylor to give us a legit deep threat. If Wright is gone, we take SS Mark Barron of Alabama to help with the secondary.

At #44, we go get the WR of DB we didn't get at 27 or possibly upgrade at DT or OL.

Then, with the additional cap space from not signing Mario, we go after a free agent wide receiver from the list provided on another thread (maybe a Colston or a Vincent Jackson).

Now you've addressed the #2 WR problem, possibly twice, replaced Mario as a pass rusher and helped out our secondary, all for the money we would have spent on just Mario and our own #1.

This is just one possibility and I wasn't even talking about "best case".

Are you going to tell me that's not an upgrade?

You sure you're not talking "best case?" For one, why would anyone trade a 1st and a 2nd for Mario if that same team could just draft someone who is his equal with their mid-1st round pick (which is what your hypothetical suggests should be easy to do)?

[Joshua]

And here is every 1st round defensive linemen drafted since Mario -

2011 - DL
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 3 Marcell Dareus
DT Alabama Buffalo Bills

1 11 J.J. Watt
DE Wisconsin Houston Texans

1 13 Nick Fairley
DT Auburn Detroit Lions

1 14 Robert Quinn
DE North Carolina St. Louis Rams

1 18 Corey Liuget
DE Illinois San Diego Chargers

1 20 Adrian Clayborn
DE Iowa Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1 21 Phillip Taylor
DT Baylor Cleveland Browns

1 24 Cameron Jordan
DE California New Orleans Saints

1 30 Muhammad Wilkerson
DT Temple New York Jets

1 31 Cameron Heyward
DE Ohio State Pittsburgh Steelers


2010 - DL
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 2 Ndamukong Suh
DT Nebraska Detroit Lions

1 3 Gerald McCoy
DT Oklahoma Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1 10 Tyson Alualu
DT California Jacksonville Jaguars

1 13 Brandon Graham
DE Michigan Philadelphia Eagles

1 15 Jason Pierre-Paul
DE South Florida New York Giants

1 16 Derrick Morgan
DE Georgia Tech Tennessee Titans

1 26 Dan Williams
DT Tennessee Arizona Cardinals

1 28 Jared Odrick
DE Penn State Miami Dolphins

1 31 Jerry Hughes
DE Texas Christian Indianapolis Colts


2009 - DL
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 3 Tyson Jackson
DE Louisiana State Kansas City Chiefs

1 9 B.J. Raji
NT Boston College Green Bay Packers

1 11 Aaron Maybin
DE Penn State Buffalo Bills

1 13 Brian Orakpo
DE Texas Washington Redskins

1 16 Larry English
DE Northern Illinois San Diego Chargers

1 24 Peria Jerry
DT Mississippi Atlanta Falcons

1 32 Ziggy Hood
DT Missouri Pittsburgh Steelers

2008 - DL
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 2 Chris Long
DE Virginia St. Louis Rams

1 5 Glenn Dorsey
DT Louisiana State Kansas City Chiefs

1 7 Sedrick Ellis
DT USC New Orleans Saints

1 8 Derrick Harvey
DE Florida Jacksonville Jaguars

1 28 Lawrence Jackson
DE USC Seattle Seahawks

1 29 Kentwan Balmer
DE North Carolina San Francisco 49ers

2007 - DL
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 4 Gaines Adams
DE Clemson Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1 8 Jamaal Anderson
DE Arkansas Atlanta Falcons

1 10 Amobi Okoye
DT Louisville Houston Texans

1 13 Adam Carriker
NT Nebraska St. Louis Rams

1 16 Justin Harrell
DT Tennessee Green Bay Packers

1 17 Jarvis Moss
DE Florida Denver Broncos


Everyone can judge for themselves how easy it will be to replace Mario.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Everyone can judge for themselves how easy it will be to replace Mario.

The only guy on the list I would immediately trade Mario for already plays for the Texans.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by chuck

The only guy on the list I would immediately trade Mario for already plays for the Texans.

Although I certainly don't follow every team closely enough to speak with too much certainty, my initial impression is there are only about 3 guys I would think are close (Watt, Suh and Pierre-Paul) with Orakpo a possible 4th. That's out of 39 draft picks. Not good odds.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Although I certainly don't follow every team closely enough to speak with too much certainty, my initial impression is there are only about 3 guys I would think are close (Watt, Suh and Pierre-Paul) with Orakpo a possible 4th. That's out of 39 draft picks. Not good odds.

Pierre-Paul is pretty damn good. It would not bother me at all to have that guy on my team.

[barrett]

Seriously. Who looks at their roster and says let's get rid of our best pass rusher?

If we can't get a deal done or he wants out, than salvage the situation and make a deal. But priority 1 should be a long term deal for Mario.

[HPF Bob]

Who looks at their roster and says "let's get rid of our best passer"?

Oh, wait. There's Indianapolis.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by Joshua

For one, why would anyone trade a 1st and a 2nd for Mario if that same team could just draft someone who is his equal with their mid-1st round pick (which is what your hypothetical suggests should be easy to do)?

They will because Mario is an outstanding 4-3 DE miscast as an OLB. He's a known quantity while any draft choice is a gamble. Because they already Barwin and Reed, the Texans can better afford to gamble and develop a first-round pick than a team which has fewer pass-rush options. Mario was far from a sure thing when he was drafted.

Ever heard of "buy low, sell high"?

BTW, listing DTs is irrelevant because losing Mario has no effect on our DTs. If you wanted a fair comparison, you would list first-round 3-4 OLBs like Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. THAT'S Mario's present contemporaries.

[Nconroe]

Also you can gain cap space by giving Mario an extension fairly soon before he hits FA.

As I nderstsnd it Marios salary this year was like 15mil, but cap hit was 18 mil from deferred bbonus. Then if you franchise him it is 120 % of 18 or 22 mil.

Most likely you can sign Mario to some back loaded guaranteed contract and reduce this years 18 to something below 14 mil given injury history and good win-win situation.

So that lkeeps Mario which need to do and keeps cap space flexibility without considering other cap moves they might make, like extending Schaub.

Considering draft picks only work out 30-50% of time it really would be foolish to trade a top 5 olb/De for draft picks.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

They will because Mario is an outstanding 4-3 DE miscast as an OLB. He's a known quantity while any draft choice is a gamble. Because they already Barwin and Reed, the Texans can better afford to gamble and develop a first-round pick than a team which has fewer pass-rush options. Mario was far from a sure thing when he was drafted.

Ever heard of "buy low, sell high"?

BTW, listing DTs is irrelevant because losing Mario has no effect on our DTs. If you wanted a fair comparison, you would list first-round 3-4 OLBs like Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. THAT'S Mario's present contemporaries.

First, why do you keep saying he is miscast in the 3-4? While I agree he is not in the traditional mold, he did perform exceedingly well in the short time we saw him there. In fact, through 5 games, he was on pace to have his best year ever. Serious question, what would you need to see to put this idea to bed?

As for a draft choice being a gamble, I'm well aware and it is you who seems to think that Mario is easily replaced. That was why I listed the DL drafted in the last 5 years to show that it not so easy and these guys don't always pan out. The odds that anyone we drafted at 11 (or wherever else) would be as good as Mario is quite slim in my opinion.

As for the inclusion of the DTs, when you sort the draft by position on nfl.com, it includes all D-linemen. Feel free to exclude whoever you want. Not sure why you think this changes the point. As for 3-4 OLBs, as I said, you can't sort that way, near as I can tell. However, if you have some long list of 1st round 3-4 OLBs from the last 5 years which are Mario's equal, feel free to share, you might just change my mind about how easy it is to find these guys.

[NBT]

Correct me if I am wrong, but since Arian was an undrafted FA back when, and he has played out his 3 year initial contract, by the CBA, isn't he an URFA?

[WMH]

Originally Posted by NBT

Correct me if I am wrong, but since Arian was an undrafted FA back when, and he has played out his 3 year initial contract, by the CBA, isn't he an URFA?

Nope, he is a RFA.