2009 Cap

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Mike

Keith,

Fantastic front page article. If you did not have a day job and this site, I would submit that you should write the Texans blog on the comical, with me as a co-writer.

Yeah, my day job pays me way too well to give it up. And sadly, my free time between my day job and my job as a husband and father has caused me to turn down a few 'fun' offers... I simply lack the time to give a blog like that the time it deserves. I would like to be more active with this site, and hopefully that will be the case in the offseason through the draft.

I'd be open to periodically posting guest articles for the site though if they were well-written and offered a new perspective on the team.

Originally Posted by Nconroe

seems a rookie cap might be a discussion item to prevent those exorbitant first round signing bonuses when unproven results.

Changes to the rookie cap is #2 on the owners' wish list for a new CBA after restructuing the overall financials of the labor agreement.

Originally Posted by da Bull

Since this is the "speculative" time of year, what does your gut tell you about the direction of the CBA. You've spent the time to get a lot closer to this topic than any of the rest of us so I appreciate your insight.

I'm reminded of the popular rephrasing of Occam's razor in times like this where there seem to be so many possibilities of where this might go next. The bottom line is that too many teams are thriving and both sides have too much to lose in a work stoppage for something really wild and unforeseen to happen.

So while I expect this to get uglier than the last negotiation three years ago (with a more unified ownership and an eager new NFLPA director), ultimately I still think this will get resolved with the majority of the existing CBA, including the salary cap, in tact before March 2011, maybe even by March 2010 like Upshaw had hoped. Neither side is completely satisfied, but that's part of what makes it a compromise.

[Keith]

Someone pointed out that this was a comment in one of John McClain's blogs a few days ago.

General,

According to Keith Weiland at inthebullseye.com: http://www.inthebullseye.com/cap2009.html

the available salary cap is $29,304,804. If you expect them to cut Ahman Green, add $2.8 million, Will Demps add $1.8 million and Greenwood add $3.2 million, that would come to approx. $37 million. Is this wrong? they don't expect to spend it all? What numbers do you have?

{Larry, I don't know anyone anywhere who knows exactly what teams have avaiilable under the cap unless they work for the team and have every salary available to them with all the clauses with bonuses and adjustments, etc. Uusally, they're several million off for a number of reasons, beginning with they -- and us -- don't know what teams are doing behind the scenes with contracts. The Texans will have more to spend than in the past, but they won't spend $30 mil guaranteed on a free agent. It's not their style. They'll use their money to re-sign their best players and then try to fill needs. They'll also keep money available for next season when injuries will cause them to sign players. Happy New Year. -- JOHN}



Posted by: Larry House at January 2, 2009 02:17 PM

I don't know who Larry is (anyone here?), but the response is interesting. John is mostly correct. He's right in that independent salary cap pages are almost always wrong. I say so myself on the page even. But they (ItB.com's and other amateur cap pages around the league) are more accurate than ever before.

One reason of course is that we understand the rules better, that helps. It also helps that there was a leak last spring that allowed several of us (myself included) to view all the details that seem to elude the media. Hopefully John and others will help us this spring in reporting (accurate) details of the new contracts signed.

[kravix]

I am not Larry. Plus I cannot even listen to the man on the radio let alone bring myself to read his blog regularly. I trust McClains knowledge, reporting skills, and investigation skills less than my 2 year olds.

McClain's entire response was more to discredit the poster and his sources. yes we understand the cap page here is off. Howver if you look at the cap page here on ITB and see the projected 3M under the capf or 2008, Keith is probably on the higher side rather than the lower side. Which means that the projected 30M for 2009 could really be 33M plus cuts. Also John pointed out that the team wouldnt guarantee 30M to a single player, of course they wont. They may spend it over 3-5 years but not in a single year.

I have no designs for a big FA spash this year, or any year for that matter. FA money is typically not worth it. Add in the facts that Keith has already pointed out about the CBA and the FA market and signings could be rather odd this offseason. Some players will attempt to lock in and some will want good payoffs quick in hopes of an uncapped season. It will really depend on how greedy and selfish they are.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by kravix

Some players will attempt to lock in and some will want good payoffs quick in hopes of an uncapped season. It will really depend on how greedy and selfish they are.

I think this is one reason why I am and have been so fascinated by Dunta's contract situation. Given his injury and inconclusive 2008 performance (by his own pre-injury standards), I had been thinking that the F-tag really might be the best way to go.

But if that means then trying to negotiate with Robinson's agent in an uncapped year after he (optimistically) has justified his full return to pre-injury form, then that would cost the team a whole heck of a lot more by using the F-tag.

It'd be a gamble by Robinson to come to the table next month asking for the moon knowing the F-tag might be the consequence, but it would certainly be a calculated one.

Owen Daniels is in a slightly similar position, different since he is a RFA and coming off his best season ever, injury-free. And really, same question can be applied for all those other '09 UFAs like DeMeco Ryans... do you pay them now under the current cap system when you have ample room to do so or do you wait until next year and follow the Domanick Davis lesson of why pay now when you can pay later? But if you wait, then there may not be a cap, at least for one year and maybe more.

It is a philosophical question for the front office, and I am very interested to find out what path they choose. This one offseason could have huge ramifications on the future of this team well beyond what happens on the field in 2009.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Keith

I think this is one reason why I am and have been so fascinated by Dunta's contract situation. Given his injury and inconclusive 2008 performance (by his own pre-injury standards), I had been thinking that the F-tag really might be the best way to go.

But if that means then trying to negotiate with Robinson's agent in an uncapped year after he (optimistically) has justified his full return to pre-injury form, then that would cost the team a whole heck of a lot more by using the F-tag.

It'd be a gamble by Robinson to come to the table next month asking for the moon knowing the F-tag might be the consequence, but it would certainly be a calculated one.

Owen Daniels is in a slightly similar position, different since he is a RFA and coming off his best season ever, injury-free. And really, same question can be applied for all those other '09 UFAs like DeMeco Ryans... do you pay them now under the current cap system when you have ample room to do so or do you wait until next year and follow the Domanick Davis lesson of why pay now when you can pay later? But if you wait, then there may not be a cap, at least for one year and maybe more.

It is a philosophical question for the front office, and I am very interested to find out what path they choose. This one offseason could have huge ramifications on the future of this team well beyond what happens on the field in 2009.

My guess is to do it now if you can is the best way to go. History (of the NFL) shows that salaries are only going to go up. We have some young talented players that I'm sure McNair wants to keep around. The owners are supposedly a united front on the CBA this time around, but if things go uncapped I can't imagine one or two wouldn't go on spending spree (read Jones, Jerry and Synder, Dan). That's only going to make negotiations that much more difficult.

With Dunta's injury I'm very tempted to use the F-tag if negations stall, but hopefully it never comes to that. There's nothing to stop these guys from demanding a new contract and threatening holdouts if a things go uncapped and they see lesser players, at least in their minds, cashing in. Either way, guys like Owen, Demeco, and Dunta are too important to not lock in.