Wild Card Weekend Discussion [Split Thread]

[Arky]

FiveThirtyEight certainly looks a little different in the post-season. Guess who they have rated last among the 8 remaining teams? Eheh.

The Ravens are the heavy favorites to make it to the SuperBowl and win it....

Click the link and check out the probabilities....

[HPF Bob]

Does 538 still list Hillary Clinton as a 98% chance to win the 2016 presidency?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

FiveThirtyEight certainly looks a little different in the post-season. Guess who they have rated last among the 8 remaining teams? Eheh.

The Ravens are the heavy favorites to make it to the SuperBowl and win it....

Click the link and check out the probabilities....

Like all predictive models they value margin of victory over win/loss. This is smart in 162 games of baseball, but the sample size is tiny in football, and a single blowout in either way can tilt the whole model.

[Arky]

Sample size in football IS tiny compared to say baseball but after 16-17 games, IMO, a team has pretty much shown what it is made of. When a season starts, I don't even look at team stats till there is at least 4 or 5 games to work with.

We've all heard the expression "defense wins championships". That may have been truer a few years ago but not so much these days. Don't get me wrong, a good defense surely helps but just a competent defense can keep you in games if you have a good to great offense.

Of the remaining 8 teams in the playoffs, here's where the remaining teams rank in defense , yds/game:

2. San Francisco
4. Baltimore
14. Minnesota
17. Kansas City
18. Green Bay
21. Tennessee
26. Seattle
28. Houston

Note that #1 New England and #3 Buffalo are out along with 6 others from the top 10.

--------------------------------

Here's the same group ranked by points allowed/game, defense:

3. Baltimore
5. Minnesota
7. Kansas City
8. San Francisco
9. Green Bay
12. Tennessee
19. Houston
22. Seattle

A little different look, eh? Points allowed per game has more of the remaining competitors in the top 10 defensively.

Some teams you can move the ball on but they get stingy in the red zone.

The yds/game stat has been used as THE ranking stat for like ages but it doesn't tell the full story. Like all raw stats, it is just one piece of the puzzle.

Calculated rankings, power rankings and new age metrics are fun to look at but I think I still prefer looking at the raw data....

So far, everything is pointing to a San Francisco/Baltimore Superbowl but sometimes one of the lower ranked teams goes on a hot streak and blows up all the models. We'll see how that works out this year...

[Arky]

It's San Francisco vs. Kansas City and early line has it as Pickem to Chiefs by 1½ in Super Bowl LIV.

[HPF Bob]

Watching SF run makes me think they'll be just as difficult to stop on the ground as Tennessee was but you have to keep milking the clock and putting up points to beat the prolific KC offense. If I were to bet (and I don't), I would pick the 49ers straight up because they have the better all-around team but the Chiefs have the ability to erase any deficit and put the pressure on Garappolo to keep sustaining drives and putting up points.

[Arky]

Those Mahomes scrambles were just killer for the Titans yesterday just like they were against the Texans. No one expects him to run so, when a play breaks down, there are good chunks to be had.

I'll be rooting for the Niners as I find it hard to pull for Kelce/Hill and company....

[barrett]

Mahomes passing and the design of the offense eat up zone coverage. Teams end up playing lots of man with deep safeties to take away the most dangerous options. But that turns into Mahomes casually running down the field while the defense’s heads are still turned. There’s no real way to stop them, so you have to score and keep them off the field while scoring. I think they sometimes press when they don’t see the ball for a long stretch.