Wild Card Weekend Discussion [Split Thread]

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

Mod note: Splitting this wild card discussion from the Titans game thread.


Yikes, a home dog in the playoffs. I'm usually way better picking heads up instead of against the spread, but I'd avoid picking the Seahawks especially if that spread grows over the week. So give me the Eagles (+1).

My other amateur spread picks...
Houston (-3)… we all know this game will be closer than it should be, and nationally I can see a lot of people taking the points and the Bills here. BUT, a healthy-ish Fuller and a return of Watt at home, and I do think the Texans avoid chuck's predicted ass rape for one more week at least.

Titans (+5.5) and heads up… kinda like the Colts were for the Texans last season, the Pats match up terribly here with the Titans. Plus their WR Brown gives me happy thoughts of what a young Andre Johnson was like. And seeing the Patriots lose at home on *shudder* wild card weekend is a bit of wish fulfillment.

Vikings (+8) but Saints to win... New Orleans is one of the tougher #3 seeds in recent memory. Hard to pick a game giving up more than a TD though as I think the Vikings will play hard throughout, but I could also see this being a blowout win for the Saints.

pick wisely...your mileage may vary.

Very good. If you haven't guessed by now, I kinda like these discussions. I'm interested in the whole science behind trying to beat the spread...

Having said that, I had a terrible year this year. Even picking straight up.
I started out OK, but it went south during the season. I zigged when I should've zagged. In the money contest I'm in, I went 0-5 to finish the contest culminating in a best bet on the Seahawks that came up about a ½ foot short of covering on SNF. That's the way it goes sometimes....

I'm thinking the Saints at home are going to run away with it. I see some leftover revenge factor from the Keenum robbery (last year? Two years ago?).

Good Texans will cover, bad Texans won't. I know, not much insight with that statement.... I keep waiting for the Texan defense to find itself - a bit like the Chiefs defense of late. It's lose-and-you-go-home time, so time to get it going.... If you can't beat the Bills.......

Yes, AJ Brown is beasty. Pats are showing some cracks. Very well could be a Titans upset... Tough to go against the Pats at home, though..

I'm leaning Russell Wilson to get it done up in Philly but need to look into it a bit more...

Sometimes the simplest logic is the correct one. I think I over-analyzed quite a bit this year and it led me astray... At any rate, just some thoughts from a guy on a losing streak, eheh....

[HPF Bob]

AJ Brown is All-Airport, alright. He lasted longer in the draft because of character concerns but, on raw talent, he may be better than his Ole Miss teammate Metcalf. Brown can be another Terrell Owens if he can stay focused.

I see the Texans-Bills game as being similar to the Oakland wild card game we had here when Osweiler was QB. Buffalo has a lot of good players but a suspect quarterback. Romeo needs to focus on the ground game, use McKinney as a spy, mix up the blitz packages and let their QB know the playoffs are a different animal. Conversely, Watson needs to utilize the TE, give Fuller V a few deep looks and then find Stills coming from the slot. If the Bills switch off D-Hop then start looking for him. OL needs to block well or it may be one of those 13-10 contests.

Having J.J. back at home should fire up the crowd to another level.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Arky

I'm thinking the Saints at home are going to run away with it. I see some leftover revenge factor from the Keenum robbery (last year? Two years ago?).

Yeah, if I flip on any of my picks, this would be the one. Chances of a Saints blowout victory are rather large. The Vikings are running out of steam.

Ok, I'll flip and take the Saints (-8) at home.

The Pats will probably do well to take Brown out of the game, kinda how they do when playing the Texans to take away their best option to make you beat them with someone lesser. Winning at Foxboro is tough, but these are not your older brother's Patriots anymore. Gronk is not walking out of that tunnel. Feels weird to say, but I'll be pulling for *gulp* Vrabel and the Titans.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

.......... but I'll be pulling for *gulp* Vrabel and the Titans.

Yep, me too. My disdain for the Pats supercedes the same for the Titans. I'll probably end up picking the Pats to win - they aren't dead until someone knocks them out. It's a bounce-back situation for the Pats after losing to the Dolphins - a wake up call. Titans have a good chance to cover the 5 pts, though.... Pats by a 4th qtr FG?

[HPF Bob]

Pats by a 4th qtr clearly blown call?