2nd Half Reset

[HPF Bob]

The Browns dismantled the Steelers in the most Steeler-esque way possible with multiple helmet-to-helmet KO's punctuated by a game-ending brawl after Myles Garrett ripped off Mason Rudolph's helmet and then swung it at Rudolph's head! This was the same Rudolph that was KO'd by Earl Thomas earlier in the year.

Thursday Night Footbrawl. The real winner was the Raiders who took over the #6 seed, at least temporarily. Another winner was the Texans who now inch that playoff clinching percentage up a few more points.

Commissioner Goody Two Shoes is going to have his hands full with this one. It's not hard to imagine multiple suspensions coming down after this. I always wondered what would happen if a head coach said "F--- it, just put as many of their players in the hospital as you can. I'll pay your fines." That's what this looked like. Sorta like Rollerball on cleats. This was payback for every thug-ass cheapshot handed out by Mean Joe, Jack Lambert and James Harrison rolled into one night.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The Browns dismantled the Steelers in the most Steeler-esque way possible with multiple helmet-to-helmet KO's punctuated by a game-ending brawl after Myles Garrett ripped off Mason Rudolph's helmet and then swung it at Rudolph's head! This was the same Rudolph that was KO'd by Earl Thomas earlier in the year.

Thursday Night Footbrawl. The real winner was the Raiders who took over the #6 seed, at least temporarily. Another winner was the Texans who now inch that playoff clinching percentage up a few more points.

Commissioner Goody Two Shoes is going to have his hands full with this one. It's not hard to imagine multiple suspensions coming down after this. I always wondered what would happen if a head coach said "F--- it, just put as many of their players in the hospital as you can. I'll pay your fines." That's what this looked like. Sorta like Rollerball on cleats. This was payback for every thug-ass cheapshot handed out by Mean Joe, Jack Lambert and James Harrison rolled into one night.

I guess when you lose 10 straight to a team you need to push the envelope a bit.

[HPF Bob]

I'm going to spot the Ravens a win over the Rams Monday night (if they lose, it changes nothing) so here are the Week 12 playoff standings (conference record in parentheses):

New England 10-1 (6-1)
Baltimore 9-2 (6-2)
Houston 7-4 (6-2)
Kansas City 7-4 (5-3)
Buffalo 8-3 (6-2)
Pittsburgh 6-5 (5-3)
----------------------------
Oakland 6-5 (4-3)
Indianapolis 6-5 (5-5)
Tennessee 6-5 (4-4)
Cleveland 5-6 (5-3)

Houston has the tiebreaker over KC (head-to-head but also conference record). Pittsburgh wins the four-way tie for the sixth seed (Indy owns tiebreak with the Titans but are eliminated with losses to both Pittsburgh and Oakland head-to-head, then Pittsburgh prevails on conference record)

ESPN now has that wonderful "what if", the NFL Playoff Machine

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

where you can tweak your favorite scenarios. In my first run-through, the Texans take the AFC South but fall behind KC into the 4th seed. Buffalo slides entirely out of the playoffs with defeats against Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and New England leaving the Steelers and Oakland as the Wild Cards. Houston hosts Pittsburgh in the first round and loses because the refs love the Steelers even with a third-string free agent at quarterback.

[Arky]

Fivethirtyeight.com now has the Texans with an 80% chance to make the playoffs and 64% chance to win the division. Just an 8% chance to get a 1st round bye. Pats and Ravens would seem to have those two 1st round byes locked up although, the Texans could mess things up with a win over the Pats on SNF.....

Colts have fallen to 34% chance to make the playoffs and and a 19% chance to win the division...

Texans now power-ranked 10th in their calculations.....

[HPF Bob]

Updated week 13 AFC playoff standings...

Baltimore 10-2 (6-2)
New England 10-2 (6-2)
Houston 8-4 (7-2)
Kansas City 8-4 (6-3)
Buffalo 9-3 (6-2)
Pittsburgh 7-5 (6-3)
----------------------------
Tennessee 7-5 (5-4)
Oakland 6-6 (4-4)
Indianapolis 6-6 (5-6)
Cleveland 5-7 (5-4)

Baltimore has head-to-head tiebreak with New England, Houston has head-to-head tiebreak with Kansas City, Pittsburgh has conference record tiebreaker with Tennessee. Pittsburgh would be the visitor for wild card week in Houston if the standings stayed this way until the end of the season.

[HPF Bob]

Final four week schedule for each contending team:

Baltimore
---------------
@ BUF
vs NYJ
@ CLE
vs PIT

New England
---------------
vs KC
@ CIN
vs BUF
vs MIA

Houston
--------------
vs DEN
@ TEN
@ TAM
vs TEN

Kansas City
--------------
@ NE
vs DEN
@ CHI
vs LAC

Buffalo
--------------
vs BAL
@ PIT
@ NE
vs NYJ

Pittsburgh
--------------
@ ARI
vs BUF
@ NYJ
@ BAL

Tennessee
--------------
@ OAK
vs HOU
vs NO
@ HOU

Oakland
--------------
vs TEN
vs JAX
@ LAC
@ DEN

Indianapolis
---------------
@ TAM
@ NO
vs CAR
@ JAX

[HPF Bob]

From CBS Sports:

That was a statement win by the Texans that keeps them in the lead for the division and throws the AFC into chaos. The Texans have a tiebreaker over the Chiefs and Patriots, the Chiefs have a tiebreaker over the Ravens, the Ravens have a tiebreaker over the Patriots and the Chiefs and Patriots are playing next week.

Oh, and let's not forget the Bills are lingering with a chance to snipe the division. In fact, the Bills can actually steal the No. 1 overall AFC seed -- if they win out (they play the Ravens next week and have the Patriots again) and the Chiefs beat the Pats next week, Buffalo would be the top seed in the AFC. This race is going to be wild down the stretch.

BTW, the Patriots have had a home field playoff game every year since 2008 (the year Brady got knee-capped and they had to play Matt Cassel at QB). It would be really sweet to watch the Patriots have to try to reach the Super Bowl via three road games without their sloppy weather for a change.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Final four week schedule for each contending team:

Houston
--------------
vs DEN
@ TEN
@ TAM
vs TEN

I can see the Texans going 3-1 in those games. Beating Denver and Tampa, and splitting with Tennessee.

It would be nice to win out, but this is a Houston team and nothing ever goes the easy way.

[Arky]

If the Chiefs can beat the Pats next weekend in Foxboro (Pats favored by 3), that could really make things interesting. Still, although the Texans have the tie-breaker over both the Chiefs and Pats, the Texans winning out would seem to be very difficult...

[HPF Bob]

It looks like maybe the Texans-Patriots game was a mirage. The Texans aren't really that good and the Patriots are worse than we thought.

Here's the Week 14 playoff standings:

Baltimore 11-2 (7-2)
New England 10-3 (6-3)
Kansas City 9-4 (7-3)
Houston 8-5 (7-3)
Buffalo 9-4 (6-3)
Pittsburgh 8-5 (6-3)
----------------------------
Tennessee 8-5 (6-4)
Cleveland 6-7 (6-4)
Indianapolis 6-7 (5-6)
Oakland 6-7 (4-5)

Those last three are two games back in the wild card and will need to run the table and hope for help. Houston has a one-game tiebreaker lead on Tennessee based on division record (3-1 compared to 2-2) but the two remaining head-to-head games will decide the division. If one or the other sweeps, they're in. If they split, Houston will go unless Houston loses to Tampa Bay and Tennessee beats New Orleans.

[HPF Bob]

Houston's win over Tennessee puts them on the cusp of clinching the AFC South with two weeks to play. A win over Tampa or Tennessee the final two weeks or a Titan loss to New Orleans in Week 16 seals the deal.

In addition, the Texans are almost stuck as the #4 playoff seed unless Kansas City slips to either the Bears or Chargers while the Texans run the table. Therefore, it's all but assured that the Texans will host Buffalo in the Wild Card round (conference records, final opponents in parentheses):

Baltimore 12-2 (8-2, @ CLE, vs PIT)
New England 11-3 (7-3, vs BUF, vs MIA)
Kansas City 10-4 (8-3, @ CHI, vs LAC)
Houston 9-5 (8-3, @ TAM, vs TEN)
Buffalo 10-4 (7-3, @ NE, vs NYJ)
Pittsburgh 8-6 (6-4, @ NYJ, @ BAL)
----------------------------------------------
Tennessee 8-6 (6-5, vs NO, @ HOU)

As I write, Indy (6-7) still has a tiny chance of making the wild card but they would need to run the table and hope Pittsburgh tanks.

The other wrench in the situation is if Buffalo upsets New England this week and then captures the AFC East which then means the wild card game could be a rematch of New England at Houston. Personally, I'd rather face Buffalo because I think Josh Allen could be rattled in his first playoff game.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Personally, I'd rather face Buffalo because I think Josh Allen could be rattled in his first playoff game.

Yeah but...
beat Buffalo at home then the Texans likely have to go to Foxboro the following week. Looking past a home game in the wild card round is surely foolish with this team, but would you rather:

Bills at home then the Patriots on the road
or
Patriots at home and Bills on the road?

Kinda think that while getting the Bills first is the best chance to go to the divisional round that the best path to the conference championship might be the latter.

[Arky]

The Ravens are the looming monster. They look pretty much unstoppable to get to the AFCC game. So, not to dismiss Pitt (or even Tenn), but it looks like it will be a fight between Texans, Bills, Chiefs and Pats over who eventually gets to meet the monster.

The Bills @ Pats game follows the Texans @ Bucs game this Saturday. Should be a good one - gotta think the spunky Bills will give the Pats a hard time - possibly win......

[HPF Bob]

It's a Brees! Indy is officially eliminated so only seven AFC teams are left for six playoffs spots with Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Houston the only ones who haven't clinched a spot. As noted earlier, Houston just needs to win one of their final two games to clinch the AFC South. Pittsburgh has the edge on the last wild card spot but they still must beat Baltimore or hope Tennessee loses to either New Orleans or Houston in the final two weeks.

Just to clarify, if Houston is the #4 seed as expected, then a first-round win almost surely means a second-round rematch in Baltimore, not New England. The Ravens own the tiebreaker with New England so even if they share the same regular-season record, Baltimore will still be the #1 seed.

[Keith]

Ha.

I'm rooting for the 6th seed, obvs.

[chuck]

I'd rather not travel to Buffalo for a playoff game if you don't mind. I don't know why, exactly, but it just feels like a bad idea.

[HPF Bob]

According to ESPN, even if Buffalo beats New England and they end up tied for the AFC East, the Patriots still have the tiebreaker but they go all the way down to common opponents to break the tie (meaning head-to-head, division record and conference record are even).

[Keith]

Originally Posted by chuck

I'd rather not travel to Buffalo for a playoff game if you don't mind. I don't know why, exactly, but it just feels like a bad idea.

OhNoYouDidn't.gif

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Keith

OhNoYouDidn't.gif

You beat me to it

[HPF Bob]

Congratulations to the Texans for winning the AFC South again and taking their familiar spot as the 4th seed. They are almost guaranteed to be hosting the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the playoffs.

Tennessee, meanwhile, lost and became the front-runner for the final wild card berth. How did that happen? Well, Pittsburgh did have an edge in conference record over the Titans but Pittsburgh's loss to a conference opponent while Tennessee lost to an NFC opponent means they are now tied. The tiebreaker goes all the way down to strength of schedule where playing the Bengals twice drags down the Steelers' SOS giving the final spot to the Titans.

Oakland, meanwhile needed four games to break their way just to still have an outside chance of making the playoffs and all four happened! Next week, they will need at least three games to break for them and if these happen too, the Raiders ought to head for Las Vegas. Oh, wait. They are.

Heading into the final week (opponent in parentheses):

Baltimore 13-2 (vs PIT)
New England 12-3 (vs MIA)
Kansas City 11-4 (vs LAC)
Houston 10-5 (vs TEN)
Buffalo 10-5 (vs NYJ)
Tennessee 8-7 (@ HOU)
---------------------------------
Pittsburgh 8-7 (@ BAL)
Oakland 7-8 (@ DEN)

Congrats, also, to the Bengals who won the Joe Burrow sweepstakes.