Getting Closer to Draft Weekend Mock

[HPF Bob]

It appears FanSpeak has done a little data mining, collecting which positions users are taking per round in their mock drafts since January.

For the Texans, users preferred:

Round 1
-------------------
OT - 36%
S - 29%
CB - 14%
G - 9 %
C - 7 %

Round 2
-------------------
CB - 25%
WR - 22%
S - 17%
G - 15%
OT - 14%

Round 3
-------------------
RB - 38%
CB - 14%
G - 13%
WR - 11%
S - 9 %

All percentages rounded down. Keep in mind, our needs changed through free agency and some big boards would list a player at different positions. Dalton Risner, for example, would be listed on some boards as OT, some had him as G and a few had him at C.

So, while the data is interesting, it comes with a few caveats. However, if you're drafting for the Texans, your most likely top of the draft was:

1st - OT
2A - CB
2B - WR
3rd - RB

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

It appears FanSpeak has done a little data mining, collecting which positions users are taking per round in their mock drafts since January.

For the Texans, users preferred:

Round 1
-------------------
OT - 36%
S - 29%
CB - 14%
G - 9 %
C - 7 %

Round 2
-------------------
CB - 25%
WR - 22%
S - 17%
G - 15%
OT - 14%

Round 3
-------------------
RB - 38%
CB - 14%
G - 13%
WR - 11%
S - 9 %

All percentages rounded down. Keep in mind, our needs changed through free agency and some big boards would list a player at different positions. Dalton Risner, for example, would be listed on some boards as OT, some had him as G and a few had him at C.

So, while the data is interesting, it comes with a few caveats. However, if you're drafting for the Texans, your most likely top of the draft was:

1st - OT
2A - CB
2B - WR
3rd - RB

So how much did you and I affect the numbers? I think my drafts usually were OT, CB, or OG in the 1st. OT, CB or OG in the 2nd. OT or CB in the 3rd.

And that is why it amazes me when I see a mock not addressing OL in the top four picks.

I saw the email discussing these number and now I am glad I waited for them to be posted here. Thank you for posting the highlights for us.

[HPF Bob]

I was surprised how many chose a safety in round one but, then, they may have noted the loss of Mathieu, Hal and even Kareem Jackson and didn't notice the replacements.

Typically, corners are more valuable than safeties for the same reason tackles are more valuable than guards. The edge skills are harder to find than the interior skills so players who wash out as corners or tackles have a second chance as safeties or guards. That's why you go after safeties and guards in the middle and late rounds more than the top rounds unless they are exceptional.

[painekiller]

HOUSTON TEXANS
Pos. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7

G 9.753% 15.542% 13.335% 9.499% 8.173% 8.119% 9.134%

DL 0.045% 0.032% 0.052% 3.339% 2.423% 3.695% 3.493%

EDGE 0.030% 2.882% 4.767% 7.711% 7.163% 13.961% 13.011%

OT 36.452% 14.698% 6.841% 9.022% 9.718% 8.136% 13.549%

TE 0.058% 0.025% 0.043% 5.286% 4.952% 2.096% 2.003%

CB 14.148% 25.939% 14.710% 10.334% 7.952% 9.365% 13.968%

QB 0.009% 0.003% 0.008% 0.874% 1.030% 1.147% 1.980%

WR 0.052% 22.746% 11.505% 18.045% 28.744% 17.405% 11.436%

LB 1.946% 0.008% 0.017% 3.458% 5.509% 7.998% 6.423%

S 29.833% 17.994% 9.681% 6.598% 7.061% 6.550% 6.721%

C 7.495% 0.084% 0.078% 0.994% 0.779% 1.063% 0.598%

RB 0.179% 0.047% 38.964% 24.841% 16.385% 20.291% 15.769%

K 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.001% 0.154% 0.326%

FB 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.001% 0.020%

P 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.019% 0.577%

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

I was surprised how many chose a safety in round one but, then, they may have noted the loss of Mathieu, Hal and even Kareem Jackson and didn't notice the replacements.

Typically, corners are more valuable than safeties for the same reason tackles are more valuable than guards. The edge skills are harder to find than the interior skills so players who wash out as corners or tackles have a second chance as safeties or guards. That's why you go after safeties and guards in the middle and late rounds more than the top rounds unless they are exceptional.

I agree on the Safety. Have two good ones, so they need to add depth, but not in the 1st. This team has to many holes to go depth in the 1st.

And your edge assessment is spot on. That is why I take 3 OTs in a lot of my mocks. I figure one can be a starting guard and provide tackle depth. Also I allow for the the team knowing how they feel about Davenport, and if they like him as a starting RT at some point. If they do, than RB or some other BPA for need pick.

[bikerack]

Is that actual user picks or does it include the computer picks as well?

There were times I chose to draft as Oakland to have some fun...and to see who the computer would select for Houston. I remember a few times early in draft season where it wasn't an OL or CB.

You've also got to remember that a couple of months ago, guys like Taylor Rapp were borderline 1st rounders so that could be where some of the safety picks came from. It would be interesting to see month by month.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by bikerack

Is that actual user picks or does it include the computer picks as well?

The way I read the site, it was actual user picks.

Bob correct me if I'm wrong on this please.