Official Texans vs. Jags Game Thread, 12/30/2018

[chuck]

Zierlein speculated that BOB was running Watson so much because he wants next week's opponent to have to spend time game planning that.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by chuck

Zierlein speculated that BOB was running Watson so much because he wants next week's opponent to have to spend time game planning that.

That suggests guile on OB's part....

If memory serves, we should learn times and pairings sometime during the SNF game tonight.....

[chuck]

Early game on Saturday, in case there was any doubt at all.

[barrett]

During the game today CBS ran a graphic about how a team has gone last to first for 15 of the past 16 seasons. This year the Texans and Bears did it. They marvel over how this happens.

How it happens is the NFL openly doctors the schedule to make it happen. 13% of your schedule is determined by your divisional finish. So last year the Jags used the last place schedule to win a division and everyone declared them good. Then they played a first place schedule with the same roster and went 5-11. The NFL is a tiny sample size league and a few extra wins here or there change the whole tone of a season.

So the Texans got last place last year and because of that got to beat the Broncos and Browns (last place teams from a year ago). The Colts went 1-1 against the Raiders and Bengals. The Titans went 0-2 against the Ravens and Chargers. That means every team went 9-5 against their identical schedule and the division was handed to the Texans and the playoffs to the Colts via artificial parity.

It honestly amazes me that the NFL does this and everyone just accepts it. There is no way MLB would just say the Rangers got last so they get an extra 10 games against the Tigers and Orioles next year while the Astros play 10 extra against the Red Sox and Indians. But somehow the NFL sells parity through a doctored schedule and everyone just accepts it.

[Keith]

It's a good point about the scheduling. The Texans clearly benefited from an easy slate of opponents this season. Next season? They get the Patriots and Ravens on the schedule (while facing the rotation of division opponents from the AFC West and NFC South).

[Arky]

Early line = Texans by 2½ over the Colts.

Others:

Dallas by 2½ over Seattle

Baltimore 2½ to 3 over LAC

Chicago 5½ over Philly

[chuck]

Originally Posted by Arky

Early line = Texans by 2½ over the Colts.

Others:

Dallas by 2½ over Seattle

Baltimore 2½ to 3 over LAC

Chicago 5½ over Philly

If I were a betting man, and I'm not, thankfully, since I have more than enough problems as it is, but if I were a betting man, I would wong the shit out of those three 2.5 point dogs.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by chuck

If I were a betting man, and I'm not, thankfully, since I have more than enough problems as it is, but if I were a betting man, I would wong the shit out of those three 2.5 point dogs.

Road teams are typically bad plays in the playoffs but not necessarily the first round. Parlay all four road dogs and I'd bet you'd get 2-3 winners. Even if they lose the game, they could beat the spread.