Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?

[popanot]

Originally Posted by Keith

Lock it up: The Texans are drafting a QB with the first round pick.

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

ESPN has Mariota as the top QB and #3 overall. Bridgewater is next at #6, with Manziel and Hundley later in the round. Carr is not listed amongst the top 32 prospects. I don't think I've heard of Carr as a 1st round pick anywhere.

The truth is that only Manziel is even intriguing to me out of that group. I watched Bridgewater look bad against a UH defense that gave up about 700 yards to BYU and has like 2 upperclassmen on the 2 deep. Mariota cannot pass unless he can run which means he cannot pass. Hundley I know almost nothing about except that he looks the part.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

ESPN has Mariota as the top QB and #3 overall. Bridgewater is next at #6, with Manziel and Hundley later in the round. Carr is not listed amongst the top 32 prospects. I don't think I've heard of Carr as a 1st round pick anywhere.

Mariota, Hundley and Manziel are all underclassmen and haven't decided to enter the draft yet. It's probably safe to say Manziel will, but I'm not so sure about Mariota and Hundley. Even adding those 3 into the mix, CBS Sports currently has Carr listed as the 4th best QB prospect and 15th best overall prospect. I've seen a few mocks that have him going top-10 (at least 2 of them I read recently have him going top-5). Are any of these sources (including ESPN) accurate? Who knows, but everything I've read over the last few weeks indicate Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

Mariota, Hundley and Manziel are all underclassmen and haven't decided to enter the draft yet. It's probably safe to say Manziel will, but I'm not so sure about Mariota and Hundley. Even adding those 3 into the mix, CBS Sports currently has Carr listed as the 4th best QB prospect and 15th best overall prospect. I've seen a few mocks that have him going top-10 (at least 2 of them I read recently have him going top-5). Are any of these sources (including ESPN) accurate? Who knows, but everything I've read over the last few weeks indicate Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).

I'm not dismissing anything as far as cosmic jokes when it comes to this sports town.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.


I don't expect the sensational, though it seems Case expects it of himself. Case needs to learn to throw the ball away instead of taking a 16 yard loss and a sack. Reading blitzes, knowing when to throw away... these are things young QBs always struggle with, so combine that with the injuries on offense, and I can understand why the results are what they have been and why people want to give Case a huge benefit of the doubt.

I think he wants to do a good job and maybe he's trying to hard to make plays. He beat the blitz a few times yesterday but no one seems to want to acknowledge that. The Jags backed off and only rushed 4 most of the time. Did you notice all the misfires yesterday? Receiver runs one way, QB throws another? Can't really speculate who is at fault here, but let's say it's 50:50. Reps and practice fix that. He was sacked twice against the Jags - not atrocious for a QB in any game (though admittedly, his sacks are big'uns).

I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games.

The Raiders are not pushovers and the Jags have nothing to lose. The Texans are too dysfunctional to compete these days... Wait till the Pats come in this Sunday...

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....

I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes.

Not sure where you get your stats but I'll assume they are correct. This is a bit puzzling because I believe Keenum was known for his accurate short and intermediate game in college. What it suggests is his vertical game is much better. Keenum is currently at 55% completion overall as a first-year-in-the- NFL-action-starter (some get annoyed when one shortens it to "rookie" as he is not technically a rookie). Andrew Luck completed a whopping 54.1% of his passes in his rookie year...(And it's a real shame the Texans have lost their mojo this year as the Colts just ain't that good).

Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance.

QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Arky

Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

This is exactly why I'd like to pursue one of the top end QB's in this years draft. Decent ain't cutting it in a QB driven league. I'd rather them swing and miss than plod around another 8 years.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

I think he wants to do a good job and maybe he's trying to hard to make plays. He beat the blitz a few times yesterday but no one seems to want to acknowledge that. The Jags backed off and only rushed 4 most of the time. Did you notice all the misfires yesterday? Receiver runs one way, QB throws another? Can't really speculate who is at fault here, but let's say it's 50:50. Reps and practice fix that. He was sacked twice against the Jags - not atrocious for a QB in any game (though admittedly, his sacks are big'uns).



The Raiders are not pushovers and the Jags have nothing to lose. The Texans are too dysfunctional to compete these days... Wait till the Pats come in this Sunday...

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....



Not sure where you get your stats but I'll assume they are correct. This is a bit puzzling because I believe Keenum was known for his accurate short and intermediate game in college. What it suggests is his vertical game is much better. Keenum is currently at 55% completion overall as a first-year-in-the- NFL-action-starter (some get annoyed when one shortens it to "rookie" as he is not technically a rookie). Andrew Luck completed a whopping 54.1% of his passes in his rookie year...(And it's a real shame the Texans have lost their mojo this year as the Colts just ain't that good).

Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance.

QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

You've mentioned before Case critics attacking him. It's not happening on this site so there is no need for you to try to balance things.

Referring to the thread title, I think he is more than a career backup and could have a 2009-2011 pre-injury Matt Schaub ceiling under the right circumstances (top 8-16 starting QB).

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by popanot

Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

Just don't give him #8. We've had problems with QBs who wear that number.

[Keith]

Bumping this.

Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too.

Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum.

I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by Keith

Bumping this.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

as did i, but 32 teams also didn't pass on newton for 7 consecutive rounds

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Bumping this.

Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too.

Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum.

I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

I do not like Bridgewater. He has not been awesome against poor competition and that concerns me. UH largely shut him down and that concerns me. For a lower division guy he doesn't really look the part and appears very slim built, that concerns me.

As much as I'm in favor of a new QB, I don't like Bridgewater or Mariota at all. Mariota seems like a faster Locker. He cannot pass unless he can run, which means he cannot really pass.

I am intrigued by Manziel and don't really know too much about Hundley other than he looks the part. I liked Boyd coming into the season but he was abysmal against FSU.

I don't think there is a QB that I would feel good about at #1 overall, especially since it appears I could have a guy like Boyd at #33. If we traded down or were drafting between 5-10 I would be tempted to go Manziel, but I don't think I could pass on Clowney (or possibly the UCLA DE?) if I was drafting 1 or 2.

If a new coach had the confidence to keep Keenum as a short term option because we went QB in round 2 and didn't want to rush a guy like Boyd onto the field I would not complain. But a new coach would need a pretty big pair to have the hometown hero to be measured up against his new draft pick.

Plus if I was Keenum I think I'd want to be somewhere that didn't have the QB of the future on the roster yet (a backup wherever Kubs or a shanahan lands perhaps?).

[HPF Bob]

Keenum is currently 19th in NFL QB rating (86.1) which is better than Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, RG3, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck among others. He is next to last, however, among qualifiers in completion percentage (54.2%). He is 10th in yards per attempt (7.54) despite all the incompletes. Philly's Nick Foles has an ungodly 125.2 QB rating, best in the NFL and 12 points higher than Peyton Mannings who is second.

ESPN's Total QBR ranks Keenum 30th but still higher than Eli Manning and Matt Schaub.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by popanot

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

I know very little about the QBs who might be available in the upcoming Draft other than some of their names ? Have not seen a single one play as I don't watch that much college ball. Another Carr in Houston seems intriguing to say the least ? What known similarities and differences does he have with David, who was certainly not without talent but was also notoriously lazy ?
One thing is obvious though, even more than ever a competent QB seems a necessity to be successful in the NFL these days, so I'm of the opinion if there's even a reasonably good prospect out there at QB and your team needs one, then you draft him even ahead of somebody like a Clowney who might be one of the greatest defensive prospects of his time. Of course ideally you draft Clowney and use a later pick for somebody who's gone unnoticed in the top rounds, like a Russel Wilson. Whatever ?

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

One thing is obvious though, even more than ever a competent QB seems a necessity to be successful in the NFL these days, so I'm of the opinion if there's even a reasonably good prospect out there at QB and your team needs one, then you draft him even ahead of somebody like a Clowney who might be one of the greatest defensive prospects of his time. Of course ideally you draft Clowney and use a later pick for somebody who's gone unnoticed in the top rounds, like a Russel Wilson. Whatever ?

These are my thoughts exactly. The QB position is more valuable than ever and your odds of ultimate success without a top flight QB are exceedingly slim.

[HPF Bob]

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

only magic if you get it right, but better chance of getting it right if you take the best prospect out of the group

[Keith]

Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.

Originally Posted by Arky

Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time....

I don't expect the sensational, though it seems Case expects it of himself. Case needs to learn to throw the ball away instead of taking a 16 yard loss and a sack. Reading blitzes, knowing when to throw away... these are things young QBs always struggle with, so combine that with the injuries on offense, and I can understand why the results are what they have been and why people want to give Case a huge benefit of the doubt.

I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games.

I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes.

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

It's not, and taking Clowney or Matthews may be a good move, especially since the round 1 cap hits are easier on teams now, but a couple things... your list ignores that Denver, KC, and Arizona each have 1-1 guys as their QBs (even though they didn't draft them).

So what this list tells me is that most playoff teams DO need a quality QB, and quality is typically found higher in the draft than later. Are there exceptions? Of course. But Brady's and Romo's are far from the norm, and I don't count Keenum as being in that class.

With a new regime presumably coming in, a new QB at the top just seems all the more likely.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by Keith

your list ignores that Denver, KC, and Arizona each have 1-1 guys as their QBs (even though they didn't draft them).

By design. The premise (as I see it) is that we MUST draft a QB for next year in the first round. Denver, KC and Arizona didn't do that even though they got, admittedly, 1-1 quarterbacks. They found other ways to get one.

With a new regime presumably coming in, a new QB at the top just seems all the more likely.

And what if it is Sumlin or Briles - two coaches who already have a relationship with Keenum and might want to develop him further?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

How does that data compare to the number of teams who have a QB drafted in the 2nd round who is still with them and leading them to the playoffs? How about the 3rd round? I would bet there are more teams with 1st round drafted QBs in the playoffs every year than 2nd round drafted QBs every year. But of course rounds 2-7 plus FA and Trade gets more QBs than just round 1 by itself.

How many playoff teams have RTs they drafted in the 1st round? (I bet none)

DEs they drafted in the first round? (I bet just as many as QB)

You are manipulating data to fit a pre-determined opinion (you don't want a 1st round QB).

Actual analysis says 3 teams drafted their QB in round 1, 1 team in round 2, 1 team in round 3, 1 team in round 6, and 1 UDFA. 2 others signed FAs, and 2 traded for theirs. This means the most likely way to get a playoff QB is to draft one in the 1st round (Luck, Stafford, Newton).

But remove the original team caveat and you get this;

Manning, Luck, Stafford, Newton, Palmer, and Alex Smith were not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks. That means half of this year's playoff QBs were #1 overall picks.

Does any of this mean we MUST go QB. Absolutely not. It just means Bob's stats were misleading and I can mislead with stats just as easily if I so desired.