Official Texans @ Ravens Game Thread, 9/22/2013

[HPF Bob]

What the above review is talking about is the gambling side of it - the point spread. I actually agree. The Texans have done nothing to deserve a 2.5 favorite status against the Ravens on the road. But the Texans *could* win by one or two points and this reviewer would still "win" by picking the Ravens.

But I don't follow the idea that the Texans are looking past last year's SB champions who could have a head-to-head tie-breaker over playoff seeding against them because they are looking ahead to two NFC opponents. I was ready to agree up to that talking point, which is stupid.

In the NFL, you play one week at a time. The Texans may lead the AFC South but their biggest rival just added a stud RB so do you think the Texans are going to relax?

The Ravens, I'm sure, feel just as comfortable that their biggest rival is a game behind them and they can tell themselves their one loss was against the probable "class" of the conference that needed to get revenge for last year's playoff blunder.

While the Texans stomped the Ravens at home last year, I'll bet many of them remember their last trip to Baltimore (playoffs '11) and feel they still have something to prove. At least I hope so.

But, in reality, the game boils down to match-ups which is why it matters if Duane Brown, Andre Johnson and Ed Reed are healthy. Can Myers hold down Ngata? Can our RG/RT keep out Thuggs? Will our FG kicker find himself in time or keep adding to his own pressure?

The Ravens also have injury issues to key players and will their guys be ready or will their backups? There are also some former Texans (Jones, Leach) who are probably going to be pumped for this game.

Gamblers try to look for numerical trends to base their decisions. That's what this review is basing their decision on. I'm sure by the same logic, they were betting on the Eagles to cover last night because almost everything they are saying about the Ravens could have been said about the Eagles (home game, need the win, fired up to play ex-coach, more explosive offense, etc.) and most of what they are saying about the Texans applied to Chiefs (on the road, lucky to be 2-0, etc.). EDIT: BTW, Philly was -3 to -3.5 favorite last night.

I just hope it doesn't come down to field goals.

[barrett]

People get caught up a ton with what the point spread should be and the 3 points for the home team, but Vegas doesn't do anything on accident. If the "extra" points convince people to bet on the Ravens when it really should have been a pick em', than the only way Vega loses is a 1 or 2 point Ravens win. And since anything under a FG is really a pick em already, all those 2.5 points do is get people to put money on Baltimore.

I would predict Houston to win so I would also predict Houston to win by 2.5.

And I agree with Bob it is stupid to think the Texans are looking past this game.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

And I agree with Bob it is stupid to think the Texans are looking past this game.

Texans really have a bit of a rivalry with the Ravens at this point, they are the defending SB champs, and most important of all they and not the Seahawks or 49ers are in the AFC. All of these things point to the Texans viewing this as a bigger game for tfhe team than the following 2 weeks.
But with it looking more and more likely that Duane Brown doesn't play Sunday, I'm not feeling the least bit confidant about this game with Newt & Harris facing Dumervil & Suggs.

[Arky]

Picking the correct winner against the spread (ATS) is a very tough thing to do. It is even hard to maintain a 2:1 ratio (67% correct) picking straight up (SU) as those entered in the pickem contests will verify (It blows my mind how good some of the people in the ESPN pickem contests are. Some of these guys should go straight to Vegas). Picking against the spread is just that much tougher. A lot of smart men can be made to look silly... A monkey can get it right at least 50% of the time, right?

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

But I don't follow the idea that the Texans are looking past last year's SB champions who could have a head-to-head tie-breaker over playoff seeding against them because they are looking ahead to two NFC opponents. I was ready to agree up to that talking point, which is stupid.

I wouldn't call it stupid. Maybe faulty logic would be better. One thing I've learned is I want to have a really good reason why I made my pick so in case it loses, I can still feel somewhat justified about the pick. Quirky things happen sometimes (fumbles, INT's, a DB that knocks down a hail Mary pass straight into the hands of the wrong team). Picking the Chargers because they got cool looking uniforms is not a really good reason.

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Gamblers try to look for numerical trends to base their decisions. That's what this review is basing their decision on. I'm sure by the same logic, they were betting on the Eagles to cover last night because almost everything they are saying about the Ravens could have been said about the Eagles (home game, need the win, fired up to play ex-coach, more explosive offense, etc.) and most of what they are saying about the Texans applied to Chiefs (on the road, lucky to be 2-0, etc.). EDIT: BTW, Philly was -3 to -3.5 favorite last night.

I just hope it doesn't come down to field goals.

Actually, Walt had the Chiefs last night (see first game at the link).

There are some that rely heavily on trend data. Some of this data can get quite obscure (home team coming off a road loss in a Monday night game in the month of October). Most use some combination of trend data and logic, team "hotness", injuries, a feel for team psychology, Ouija board (j/k), etc. You've heard the expression "past performance is no indication of future performance"? That's both true and false in the world of picking ATS.

Though Walt has been slumping the last couple of years, he had a nice run before that. He's not off to a good start this year but what one can't accuse him of, is not doing his homework.....

That said, I hope he's wrong but I would not be shocked if the Ravens won. If the Texans win by 3 or better, at least Walt has some pretty good reasons for picking the way he did.

[HPF Bob]

Trending well on the injury front: Andre Johnson has been cleared and will play.

Ray Rice and DL Chris Canty are both listed as doubtful. If Rice cannot go, his backup is the underrated Bernard Pierce but I'd rather see Pierce than Rice.

[WMH]

D Brown is officially out. Did not make the trip.

Suggs and Dumervil vs. Harris and Newton.

3 steps, boots, screens and draws a plenty.

[WMH]

@McClain_on_NFL: Ed Reed is starting against the Ravens.

@MarkBermanFox26: Texans inactives: QB Case Keenum, WR Lestar Jean, OLB Sam Montgomery, OT Duane Brown, ILB Justin Tuggle, DE Tim Jamison, G Cody White