Cowher Predicts 12-4 and Homefield Advantage

[HPF Bob]

ESPN.com playoff rankings.

The Texans are currently 6-3 with a 3-0 division record and a 6-2 conference record. Of the seven remaining games:

@ TAM
@ JAX
vs ATL
@ CIN
vs CAR
@ IND
vs TEN

only four are in the conference and three of those are return matches against our own division. Clearly, the game at Cincinnati is the most critical one left on the schedule in terms of playoff seeding if you presume the Texans will win the division (they have a 1-1/2 game lead now with the tiebreaker advantage). Beat Cincy and we have a great chance to be 10-2 in the conference.

There are only four other AFC teams with two or less conference losses. They are (with conf record and their remaining conference games):

Cincinnati (5-1 - vs PIT, @ BAL, vs CLE, @ PIT, vs HOU, vs BAL)
New England (4-2 - @NYJ, vs KC, vs IND, @ DEN, vs MIA, vs BUF)
Baltimore (4-2 - vs CIN, @ CLE, vs IND, @ SD, vs CLE, @ CIN)
Buffalo (3-2 - @ MIA, @ NYJ, vs TEN, @ SD, vs MIA, vs DEN, @ NE)

If we beat Cincy, then the others would have to run the table in their remaining conference games to beat over conference record which is the first tiebreaker after head-to-head (Baltimore beats us on head-to-head).

So, the Texans do have a good possibility to be the #1 seed and go 12-4 as long as their loss is to an NFC team and they sweep their remaining four AFC games. I will say, though, that if New England wins at the Jets this week, they have a very good chance to run the table the rest of the way and be the #1 seed based on a 13-3 record.