Statistical analysis of Schaub

[Joshua]

Don't know how many of you have access to ESPN Insider articles but this is a pretty interesting one where the author uses statistical analysis to determine Schaub's propensity to make game altering plays for the good and the bad. Basically, based on down, distance, score, time remaining, etc., he looks to see how many times Schaub has made plays which impacted the Texans' chances of winning by more than 20%. While there is clearly some subjectivity here, it still jives with what my eyes are telling me. In short, according to his analysis, Schaub has thrown 14 INTs which resulted in a 20% or more decrease in the Texans' win percentage since 2008. This is far and away the league worst. The next group of QBs all come in at 9 INTs (Sanchez, Romo, Brees, Palmer, Rivers). Also, as a percentage of passes attempted, Schaub is also the worst. In short, since 2008, no one has singlehandedly impacted winning more negatively than Schaub.

The article doesn't stop there, however. He then looks into plays where a QB has increased his team's chances of winning by 20% or more. This makes sense because you can have a "gunslinger" QB who may make some back breaking plays, but who also pulls out some games by making big plays as well. This turns out to be true with Romo (9), Brees (8), Stafford (11), etc. While they occasionally will toss a horrendous INT, they make as many or more big positive plays. Unfortunately for Schaub, there is no upside to go with the downside. Since 2008, Schaub has made 2 plays which increased the Texans' chances of winning by more than 20%. This ties him with Christian Ponder, Shaun Hill, Matt Moore, Curtis Painter, Alex Smith and Stephen McGee.

In short, Schaub is the league worst since 2008 in crippling his team with untimely INTs (14), yet has shown no corresponding ability to make big plays in a positive direction (only 2).

Here's the link -

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mike-sando/post?id=1220