Why we'll keep Mario...

[popanot]

If this regieme won't admit KJ is a weak link and bench him because of his draft status, what makes anyone think they'll let a young, talented, proven #1 overall DE/LB walk? Say what you will about $$, but I think don't think they'll let him walk or trade him for anything other than a huge blockbuster deal at this point. Just sayin'...

[WMH]

Man....I hope your right, but unfortunately, I just don't see it. You can't disregard the dollars associated with Mario's contract. The Texans are/will be cap strapped for the next 2 years. By not signing Mario, it gives them the ability to extend several other key contributors that are expiring in '13 (Schaub, Barwin, Brown come to mind) + bring back Foster, Myers, and Briesel this year.

Don't see a trade being able to work out. We re-sign or he walks.

Not saying that is what I would do, or what I would like to see done, but it sure seems it makes too much sense NOT to re-sign him.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by WMH

Man....I hope your right, but unfortunately, I just don't see it. You can't disregard the dollars associated with Mario's contract. The Texans are/will be cap strapped for the next 2 years. By not signing Mario, it gives them the ability to extend several other key contributors that are expiring in '13 (Schaub, Barwin, Brown come to mind) + bring back Foster, Myers, and Briesel this year.

Don't see a trade being able to work out. We re-sign or he walks.

Not saying that is what I would do, or what I would like to see done, but it sure seems it makes too much sense NOT to re-sign him.

Where are you getting the idea the Texans are cap strapped if they resign Mario?

His cap number will go significantly down with any long term deal. Maybe as much as $5-10 million less than the $18 million this year.

And the salary cap explodes next year based on increased TV revenue. Meaning even if we were tight this year we would have money next year before we needed to worry about any 2013 guys.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by barrett

Where are you getting the idea the Texans are cap strapped if they resign Mario?

His cap number will go significantly down with any long term deal. Maybe as much as $5-10 million less than the $18 million this year.

And the salary cap explodes next year based on increased TV revenue. Meaning even if we were tight this year we would have money next year before we needed to worry about any 2013 guys.

Agree with all of this with one exception/question. I read somewhere that it's 2014, not 2013, when the cap will take off because of the new TV deal. Not sure it changes the calculus much, but if anyone knows the answer I would appreciate it.

[nunusguy]

I've heard the new TV deal will be fed into the cap incrementally instead of in the form of a big pop the first year the cash-flow from the networks become effective. And regardless I think it's a bad deal if we have to give Mario a contract that includes from 35 to as much as 50 M guaranteed money. I don't think he's worth that kind of money and wonder if he's really more valuable to the team than other players who become FAs in '13 like Duane Brown and
Connor Barwin, not to mention Schaub ?

[barrett]

You're not sure if Mario is more valuable than Barwin?

[HPF Bob]

In the games after Mario went down, were there any where we were dominated by the other team's offense? Really, the Carolina game was all I could think of and that, I think, was just a flat performance all around.

Granted, we didn't really play many great offenses either but I thought the defense did very well with Mario on the sidelines. I don't want to see him leave and get nothing in return nor do I want him to leave if contracts can be arranged where he stays without costing us other key players but I think we can survive without him if it came to that. I think we already have.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by barrett

Where are you getting the idea the Texans are cap strapped if they resign Mario?

His cap number will go significantly down with any long term deal. Maybe as much as $5-10 million less than the $18 million this year.

And the salary cap explodes next year based on increased TV revenue. Meaning even if we were tight this year we would have money next year before we needed to worry about any 2013 guys.

IIRC - Cap grows by leaps and bounds in '14, not '13.

It is being reported that we have ~$3-$4MM in cap room, that is with Mario at ~$18. Say Mario gets.........$12MM/yr (-$6MM). Arian gets......$6MM/yr (+$5MM). Myers gets......$4MM/yr (+$1MM). The cap "savings" you get from a long term Mario contract is eaten up by Arian and Myers deals, plus we still have to resign Briesel. Dressen might have to walk as well.

I'll be the first to admit, I haven't a clue what I am talking about when it comes to the cap, but in just looking at the raw numbers, it seems to me that the above example will likely hold fairly true. This puts us in the exact same spot next year when they go to re-up Brown, Barwin, and Schaub (might be others as well....Antonio Smith? Wade Smith?). Another year in Wade's system, and Barwin is going to command top dollar as well.

That's just the way I see it. Hope I am wrong, but that sure makes sense to me.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by WMH

IIRC - Cap grows by leaps and bounds in '14, not '13.

It is being reported that we have ~$3-$4MM in cap room, that is with Mario at ~$18. Say Mario gets.........$12MM/yr (-$6MM). Arian gets......$6MM/yr (+$5MM). Myers gets......$4MM/yr (+$1MM). The cap "savings" you get from a long term Mario contract is eaten up by Arian and Myers deals, plus we still have to resign Briesel. Dressen might have to walk as well.

I'll be the first to admit, I haven't a clue what I am talking about when it comes to the cap, but in just looking at the raw numbers, it seems to me that the above example will likely hold fairly true. This puts us in the exact same spot next year when they go to re-up Brown, Barwin, and Schaub (might be others as well....Antonio Smith? Wade Smith?). Another year in Wade's system, and Barwin is going to command top dollar as well.

That's just the way I see it. Hope I am wrong, but that sure makes sense to me.

I doubt Mario's cap number would be as high as 12 million. If he signs a 6 year $72 million deal (a huge one), it is not spread equally over 6 years. It is hugely back loaded. This is why he got $18 million in the last year of this past deal. That was a 6 year $54 million dollar deal and a full ONE THIRD of it was in the last year. I would bet a long term deal for Mario puts him under $10 million for cap purposes next year.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by barrett

I doubt Mario's cap number would be as high as 12 million. If he signs a 6 year $72 million deal (a huge one), it is not spread equally over 6 years. It is hugely back loaded. This is why he got $18 million in the last year of this past deal. That was a 6 year $54 million dollar deal and a full ONE THIRD of it was in the last year. I would bet a long term deal for Mario puts him under $10 million for cap purposes next year.

I hear ya, but I'm thinking that his numbers are going to be quite a bit bigger than that. IIRC, Peppers got a 6 yr, $80ishMM ($40ish guarranteed) contract two years ago....that was before teams had to start inching towards a salary floor. Charles Johnson (yeah, who?) 6 yrs, $76MM ($32MM gtd.). It is quite possible that if he hits the market, it would/could be the biggest FA deal for a DE ever.....not good for the hometeam

[cadams]

if they can get mario at a reasonable number (reasonable for the caliber player he is, not reasonable in real world) and get foster resigned, i bet they can make the cap work to get most of the others back. they can convert parts of otehr player's salaries for 2012 into signing bonuses (bringing their base salary down to league minimuim) and spread that out over the next few years. that would drop cap figures and allow them to get the people back they want.

my thought is they keep everyone, with the only wild card being how much mario wants. if he wants to be the highest paid d-end in the league, he will be playing somewhere else. and unfortunately, one of the teams who has a ton of cap space and a need on d-line is tennessee.