2nd Half Reset

[HPF Bob]

Believe it or not, the 5-3 Texans would be the sixth seed in the playoffs if they started today. Here's how the AFC looks after eight weeks:

New England 8-0
Baltimore 5-2
Indianapolis 5-2
Kansas City 5-3
Buffalo 5-2
Houston 5-3
============
Jacksonville 4-4
Tennessee 4-4
Pittsburgh 3-4
Oakland 3-4
L.A. Chargers 3-5

Offensively, the offensive line appears to be regressing. The false starts are especially a problem. Watson is spending too much of his time running for his life or spinning out of trouble. Hyde and Johnson have been a decent 1-2 punch and Watson has found a new weapon in Darren Fells to join DeAndre Hopkins.

Defensively, the loss of Watt hurts and the secondary is in shambles but they've been able to hold up decently up until now. The only game they really looked bad was against Carolina.

On special teams, I wish we had a better PK than Fairbairn but he's league average. I don't think we've had a real threat on kick returns since Andre' Davis (2007-09).

The second half schedule shows:

vs JAX (@ London)
BYE
@ BAL
vs IND
vs NE
vs DEN
@ TEN
@ TAM
vs TEN

That looks like a 4-4 finish or maybe 5-3. That's right on the border of making the playoffs but there are so many teams that are virtually out, one has to look at the rest of the AFC and realize we could be 9-7 and get the last spot by default.

Having tiebreakers with Oakland and the Chargers might be keys. We're also 4-1 in conference record, tied for second in the AFC with Buffalo behind you-know-who. After head-to-head, conference record is the second tiebreaker except with division foes.

My point is that we need not obsess over beating Indy. If they win the division, we can still make the playoffs unlike many previous AFC South seasons. If they can keep Watson healthy and heal up at key spots, their chances at returning to the playoffs (and likely getting embarrassed) seem better than 50-50 insuring O'Brien keeps his job another year.

[Arky]

Clint Stoerner on 610am was making the point that if the Texans can take 2 of the next 4, (Jax, Balt, Indy, NE - pick 2), then they go into a somewhat easy part of the schedule with the final 4 games (Denver, Tampa, Tenn x2). So, say they go into the final 4 games at 7-5, then a 3-1 finish or better is possible for a 10-6 or an 11-5 record.

That's optimistic, for sure. Playing Indy, NE, Tenn and Denver at home helps... but an unexpected bungle like losing to the Jags tomorrow could throw a wrench into everything.... We'll see, I guess...

[HPF Bob]

Wow...Texans look good going into their bye week. Revised Week 9 standings (conf record):

Patriots 8-1 (6-1)
Ravens 6-2 (4-2)
Texans 6-3 (5-1)
Chiefs 6-3 (4-2)
Bills 6-2 (4-1)
Colts 5-3 (4-3)
========
Steelers 4-4 (4-2)
Raiders 4-4 (2-2)
Jaguars 4-5 (4-3)
Titans 4-5 (2-4)
Chargers 4-5 (2-4)

[Arky]

I got beating the Colts as the #1 priority over the next three games. These division games are like double value (double win or double loss). You get a division win/loss and a conference win/loss. Since losing the first match-up to the Colts, that Thursday-nighter at home (vs. Colts) is pretty much a must-win.

If the Texans are truly contenders, then at least beating one of Baltimore or New England should be doable. I'd prefer a win over the Pats but either one would be fine. Two losses would be hard to stomach but made more palatable if they were close, hard-fought games (although we've seen that movie before).

Sweeping all three would be highly unlikely but if it happened, man, everyone and their ugly sister would be talking about the Texans....

[HPF Bob]

Beating the Colts will be easier if Brisket is still out and we get to face Brian "The Playoff Destroyer" Hoyer at QB.

I'll be shocked if the pass-rush-less Texans can beat either the Ravens or the Patriots but the Patriots might be easier than trying to chase down Jackson, plus we get the Pats at home with some extra rest and the Ravens may have exposed a few weaknesses. They no longer look so unbeatable.

I fully expect them to go 1-2 during that stretch but they could go 4-0 the final month, in which case they finish 11-5 with either the third seed or the fourth seed where they will eventually die in the cold tundra of Baltimore or Foxboro.

[HPF Bob]

Update: Per Mortensen, Brissett has an MCL "sprain" and could play against the Dolphins if needed for Week 10 but will likely be held out for caution and because, well, it's the Dolphins at home.

The Colts play at home against Jackwagonville before playing the Texans so it is likely both Brissett and Hilton will be healthy again by our game against them (drat!).

Also saw an item that said Keke Coutee was held out against the Jaguars not for injury but because of "lack of attention to detail". O'Brien also added that Keke is "a great guy" so I guess the coach likes him even though he doesn't remember what he's doing out on the field, like maybe running the right routes or throwing a block when called upon.

We ought to be using Stills more anyway. If you've noticed, Stills grabs the ball with his hands while Fuller and Coutee tend to body the ball against their chests, not trusting their hands alone to make the catch. Hopkins and Stills use their hands which is what you should be coached to do. Fells also uses his hands while Akins is more of a body-catcher.