Chargers "came up one pick short" in drafting Brown [San Diego Union-Tribune]

[Keith]

Wow... it's not 100% clear that the Chargers would have taken Duane Brown at #27, but they seemed to be very, very interested in doing so nonetheless.

Funny that the Chargers finally got a tackle with their final pick. They had been stymied from starting off the draft with one when an unprecedented eight tackles were selected before they picked at No. 27.

“We came up one pick short,” said Turner, who along with the rest of the Chargers brass watched Houston trade into the 26th spot and take tackle Duane Brown of Virginia Tech.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports...8chargers.html

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Keith

Wow... it's not 100% clear that the Chargers would have taken Duane Brown at #27, but they seemed to be very, very interested in doing so nonetheless.



http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports...8chargers.html

This is the revelation that shut me up (heard this on NFLn a day or so back). We got lucky getting Brown. If we had tried to get cute, we would have lost our chance at a stud.

[cadams]

yeah, given the run on LTs it makes sense that he wouldn't have been there later than our pick. as i have said, i will reserve judgment on all of the draftees until they get on the field and play, but the current regime has given me no reason to doubt them on talent evaluation to date (as far as the draft goes that is).

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by painekiller

We got lucky getting Brown. If we had tried to get cute, we would have lost our chance at a stud.

I dunno, but I think we (Smith that is) were part lucky and part cute. The thing is, Smith finessed it a bit when he moved back to get the extra picks and he was also lucky it wasn't the 'Bolts jumping ahead of us to grab Brown instead of the Cowboys doing so to grab the CB.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I dunno, but I think we (Smith that is) were part lucky and part cute. The thing is, Smith finessed it a bit when he moved back to get the extra picks and he was also lucky it wasn't the 'Bolts jumping ahead of us to grab Brown instead of the Cowboys doing so to grab the CB.

I think most teams had us going CB in the first due to their idea of need. Might be the reason the bolts stayed put.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Keith

Wow... it's not 100% clear that the Chargers would have taken Duane Brown at #27, but they seemed to be very, very interested in doing so nonetheless.

Before we dislocate our shoulders patting ourselves on the back, remember, the Patriots or some other team was going to trade up and select Jason Babin if we didn't take him in the 1st round.

Let's see how Brown plays this year before we jump to conclusions about this being a good/bad pick in the 1st round.

[NickO]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Before we dislocate our shoulders patting ourselves on the back, remember, the Patriots or some other team was going to trade up and select Jason Babin if we didn't take him in the 1st round.

Let's see how Brown plays this year before we jump to conclusions about this being a good/bad pick in the 1st round.

I think this is more of a response to the Todd McShay's and other draft geniuses hammering the Texans for "reaching" on Brown, who everyone thought was a mid-2nd at best.

Whether Brown turns out to be a good or bad pick remains to be seen, but the idea that the Texans could've traded back again and still gotten Brown seems to be killed by Turner's statement.

[nunusguy]

If a Draft pick fails, does that mean he was a reach or a bust ?
Hindsight is 20/20 as they say, so was Robert Gallery a reach or a bust or
a failure or just a disappointment. Or maybe all of those things ?
To me its like this: you got 8 cars on a car lot and in a short time interval you've gone from 8 or maybe 9 buyers to dozen buyers for those 8 cars.
What happens to the price of those cars ? Of course the price of each car
goes up. Same with Duane Brown: his price went up from a mid or late second-rounder to late first-rounder because there was more teams wanting to Draft high-upside OLTs than the number of tackles on the lot, I mean in the Draft. Its just the very basic economics of supply & demand.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

If a Draft pick fails, does that mean he was a reach or a bust ?
Hindsight is 20/20 as they say, so was Robert Gallery a reach or a bust or
a failure or just a disappointment.

If a draft pick fails, he's a bust.

A reach has nothing to do with hindsight and all about projections. The term "reach" was created by draftniks and fans who want to grade the draft immediately following the selection of Mr. Irrelevant. When 90% of all mock drafts have play "X" as a 2nd or 3rd round pick and player "X" is drafted at #20, then the "Reach" label is applied. Now, player "X" can prove everyone wrong by performing up to expectations of the slot in which he was selected.

Exhibit A: Jason Babin.
Babin was a "reach" because most draft gurus said he would last until the 2nd round. When he failed to perform up to the standards of a 1st round selection, then he earned the additional label of "bust" by everyone around the NFL.

Exhibit B: Robert Gallery.
Nobody in their right mind at the time of the draft and the months preceding thought this guy was anything other than a top 5 pick. So, he was not a reach in any estimation. However, because he has not done anything as of yet, he is a "bust", just like Babin.

Exhibit C: Logan Mankins.
The Patriots can get away with just about anything. Mankins was never mentioned as a 1st round pick. The Patriots were given the benefit of the doubt because they picked at the bottom of the 1st round and they are the Patriots. In all honesty, Mankins was a reach, by definition (a player selected earlier than the consensus thought he'd be). However, he has done a formidable job on a Super Bowl caliber team, thus avoiding the "bust" label. Hopefully, Duane Brown can fall into this catagory.

[Joshua]

While I haven't done the math, my guess is that virtually every year 50-60% of 1st round picks fail to live up to expectations and a good 30-40% qualify as busts. With that said, if you can avoid having your 1st round pick fall into either of these categories, it was a good pick. Period. All this talk about "reaches" is somewhat silly to me, aside from the possibility of being able to trade back (and get more picks) and still get your guy. It completely discounts the extremely high percentage of picks which fail. Just get your pick right. It doesn't matter where in the draft you do it.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Joshua

. All this talk about "reaches" is somewhat silly to me, aside from the possibility of being able to trade back (and get more picks) and still get your guy

I am not a big fan of the reach thing either. In some cases I think it is warranted, but like you said all that matters is if the pick works out in the end. Brown's a good example. The Texans were widely blasted for reaching. Kiper had him projected to go much later, but if the Texans thought he was a guy who could plat LT for them, and do it very soon and at a high level....then take him. Now we find out that a least one other team was ready to take him in the first and we look pretty smart. How he plays is the only deciding factor.

We spend so much time reading guys like Kiper, McShay, RoyP, and all the rest that we just assume that their projections are correct in regards to draft position. The fact is there is absolutely no way to know how much farther a guy would have fallen if someone didn't reach. Hell, I thought the Miami pick for Ginn was stupid because I didn't think he would be that great in the NFL, but if Miami passes up on him who's to say that someone else might have picked him three or four spots later and he wouldn't have been available for them later. You could try and predict it, but the predictions were already wrong once.

Teams draft boards differ from team to team, and I'm sure are quite a bit different than the "experts". If a guys at the top of your board you take him. If he fails it's because your scouting failed, not becuase you reached.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Exhibit C: Logan Mankins.
The Patriots can get away with just about anything. Mankins was never mentioned as a 1st round pick. The Patriots were given the benefit of the doubt because they picked at the bottom of the 1st round and they are the Patriots. In all honesty, Mankins was a reach, by definition (a player selected earlier than the consensus thought he'd be). However, he has done a formidable job on a Super Bowl caliber team, thus avoiding the "bust" label. Hopefully, Duane Brown can fall into this catagory.

"The consensus" being collectively the mock-drafters, who clearly are semi-professional at best. That's generous I think if you're comparing Mel Kiper's knowledge to Bill Billichecks. 'Cause we don't know what "the consensus" of the NFL Boards were on Mankins ?
How about a year later when the Jets took center Nick Mangold, right at the end of the 1st round (29th). He's by all accounts had a successful NFL career up to this point, but he was taken by the Jets
and not the 'Pats so of course he's not been in a SB or the Pro Bowl IIRC ? And as we know it's unusual to take interior Olineman in the first round, so sounds like the former Buckeye is even more obviously a reach than Mankins ?

[cadams]

[QUOTE=nunusguy;641]"The consensus" being collectively the mock-drafters, who clearly are semi-professional at best. [QUOTE]

no kidding. if kiper was as good as he, or espn, would have us believe he would be working for an nfl team instead of espn.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by papabear

Kiper had him projected to go much later, but if the ______thought he was a guy who could play _____ for them, and do it very soon and at a high level....then take him. Now we find out that a least one other team was ready to take him in the first and we look pretty smart. How he plays is the only deciding factor.

If he fails it's because your scouting failed, not becuase you reached.

First, let me just say that "reaching" for a player is not necessarily a bad thing. If that guy who was projected to be a later pick produces, then you look pretty smart.

I showed you guys my draft board and I had Antoine Cason as my top pick for the Texans. According to Kiper, Mayock, and the majority of "draft experts" that would have been a reach. Cason was a guy, like Brown, that was projected as a mid 2nd round pick. However, from what I saw of him on game days and his Combine numbers, he was worth a 1st round pick. Apparently, San Diego agreed with me and selected him right after our pick. So, in essence, San Diego "reached" just like I was willing to do.

Now, we have to see if Cason and Brown play like 1st round picks.

Basically, guys like Kiper are looking for credibility. When a draft expert makes bold predicitons, its likely that many of them will be wrong (just like the weatherman). Therefore, when a guy fails who was selected earlier than we thought they would be, we can say "I told you so" back when team X reached for him on draft day. It's a defense mechanism. Lord knows they show enough clips of when (insert expert) predicted something that was ludicrous.

On the NFL Network they showed Mayock last year stating that Adrian Peterson was drafted too early. On ESPN they show Kiper talking up Eason and discounting Marino in the '83 draft. Etc. etc. It's all apart of the draft hype.

As for scouting and reaching....When your scouts fail and lead you to believe that player X is going to be great when nobody elses scouts shared that opinion, it can make you reach for a player. You just have to trust what your scouts see, that's why you hired them.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

"

How about a year later when the Jets took center Nick Mangold, right at the end of the 1st round (29th).
And as we know it's unusual to take interior Olineman in the first round, so sounds like the former Buckeye is even more obviously a reach than Mankins ?

Actually, looking back at 2006, Mangold was averaging around the #26 pick. Here's my list of that draft:

1 RB Reggie Bush
2 DE Mario Williams
3 QB Matt Leinart
4 OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson
5 LB AJ Hawk
6 TE Vernon Davis
7 S Michael Huff
8 DT Haloti Ngata
9 QB Vince Young
10 QB Jay Cutler
11 DT Brodrick Bunkley
12 RB DeAngelo Williams
13 LB Chad Greenway
14 CB Tye Hill
15 WR Chad Jackson
16 OT Winston Justice
17 RB LenDale White
18 CB Jimmy Williams
19 S Jason Allen
20 WR Santonio Holmes
21 DE Kamerion Wimbley
22 CB Jonathan Joseph
23 LB Ernie Sims
24 RB Laurence Maroney
25 DE Manny Lawson
26 OC Nick Mangold
27 S Donte Whitner
28 CB Antonio Cromartie
29 LB D'Qwell Jackson
30 LB DeMeco Ryans
31 LB Bobby Carpenter
32 DE Mathias Kiwanuka

The above list was an average of about 20 different Mock drafts/Talent Boards before the draft, obviously.

So, Mangold wasn't considered a reach at the time. Donte Whitner was a "reach" when he was selected #8 by the Bills. Cromartie was coming off an injury, so going #19 was a surprise too.

It's also interesting to note what I call "revisionist history" concerning DeMeco Ryans. It's been said how we were lucky to get what many considered to be a 1st round talent in the 2nd round. People tend to forget that he was projected to go around #30 and we selected him at the very top of the 2nd round with #33. The way people talk about it, he was a top 10 pick who miraculously slid down to the 2nd round.

[Warren]

I'm not real big on blasting somebody for "reaching" either, because we really don't have anything to base it on. If a team has a good feel for what the rest of the league thinks of a player so they feel they can risk waiting, that's great, as they can move back and pick up more picks or take another player who they don't believe will be there later. But otherwise they need to trust their evaluations and not worry about what anybody else thinks.

Looking at it from the other end, every year there are guys who get drafted much later than the "consensus" expects, either because of medical or character issues that aren't public or at least fully public, or because the real scouts just don't think they're as good as the "experts" do. I can't think of a glaring example this year, except maybe LBs Erin Henderson and Ali Highsmith, both of whom were projected by some as high as the 3rd round but went undrafted. If the Texans had picked one of those two in the 4th or 5th it would have been considered a solid value pick and if they had picked one in the 6th or 7th it may have been considered a steal. With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that those picks would have been too early.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by Roy P

It's also interesting to note what I call "revisionist history" concerning DeMeco Ryans. It's been said how we were lucky to get what many considered to be a 1st round talent in the 2nd round. People tend to forget that he was projected to go around #30 and we selected him at the very top of the 2nd round with #33. The way people talk about it, he was a top 10 pick who miraculously slid down to the 2nd round.

I think that is based on a number of things. First, clearly if everyone could do the draft over again Ryans would go very high, but that could be said for a lot of players, so it doesn't really count. You are correct in that he was projected to go around where we got him before draft day, but I think part of what people are talking about were the projections of where he would go before his last college season. I think people had him rated to go between 15-20 going into his last season and he slid for a number of reasons, but of course Texans fans are going to spin it in the best manner for their team. that is natural. but you are correct in that he wasn't considered a "steal" like mendenhal was this year. i am fine with that though, and i ma glad he got dropped on everyone else's board so we could get him.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by cadams

but you are correct in that he wasn't considered a "steal" like mendenhal was this year.

I dunno, was Mendenhal really considered a consensus steal at what 23 or 24in the first round ? I know some people felt that way, most notably the NFLNetworks Mayoc who thought he was the top back even ahead of McFadden. I know I'm glad we didn't pick him.

[bckey]

I'm happy with the Brown Pick. I think what bothered me the most was that Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak seem to have committed themselves to drafting a LT in the 1st round no matter what. It looks like getting Gibbs to come out of retirement heavily influenced their decision making. Maybe they felt obligated because of this and also a little pressure because of the short time most of us think Gibbs will be with the Texans. This type of thinking can cause you to reach or mortgage the farm to move up to get a player you really want badly. Luckily we have the one of the smartest GMs around.

This article makes drafting Brown in the first a little against the norm for Gibbs.

Gibbs, 59, crafted great offensive lines mostly with players other teams had no use for. Unlike just about every other coach, Gibbs didn't lobby to have his team select players for him in the high rounds. He preferred the leftovers, players who have something to prove. Gibbs tore these players down further, and then built them up.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...25/ai_69404525

The Texans came out with a pretty good draft imho. At #18 Smith must have thought that Duane Brown would have been a reach. He was savy enough to trade back and turn the pick into 3 players. The pressure was reported to be extreme on Kubiak waiting to see if Brown would make it to the 26th slot. That alone says volumes about how badly they wanted to give Gibbs a LT to work with. I'm glad they got their man. I'll bet Gibbs is too. With Brown being a 1st rounder Gibbs might be in his a$$ even more. Break em down and build em up.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by bckey

I'm happy with the Brown Pick. I think what bothered me the most was that Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak seem to have committed themselves to drafting a LT in the 1st round no matter what. It looks like getting Gibbs to come out of retirement heavily influenced their decision making. Maybe they felt obligated because of this and also a little pressure because of the short time most of us think Gibbs will be with the Texans. This type of thinking can cause you to reach or mortgage the farm to move up to get a player you really want badly. Luckily we have the one of the smartest GMs around.

This article makes drafting Brown in the first a little against the norm for Gibbs.

Gibbs, 59, crafted great offensive lines mostly with players other teams had no use for. Unlike just about every other coach, Gibbs didn't lobby to have his team select players for him in the high rounds. He preferred the leftovers, players who have something to prove. Gibbs tore these players down further, and then built them up.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...25/ai_69404525

The Texans came out with a pretty good draft imho. At #18 Smith must have thought that Duane Brown would have been a reach. He was savy enough to trade back and turn the pick into 3 players. The pressure was reported to be extreme on Kubiak waiting to see if Brown would make it to the 26th slot. That alone says volumes about how badly they wanted to give Gibbs a LT to work with. I'm glad they got their man. I'll bet Gibbs is too. With Brown being a 1st rounder Gibbs might be in his a$$ even more. Break em down and build em up.

I look at this way. If Brown was thought by most to be no more than a
second or even third-rounder, but if eventually he turns out to be our starting
LT he's more than worth it. In retrospect, to me Charles Spencer was worth the 26th pick in the 2006 Draft even though we didn't take him until the third round. And of course his very unfortuante injury, which could actually end his career, is a moot issue.