Statistical analysis of Schaub

[Joshua]

Don't know how many of you have access to ESPN Insider articles but this is a pretty interesting one where the author uses statistical analysis to determine Schaub's propensity to make game altering plays for the good and the bad. Basically, based on down, distance, score, time remaining, etc., he looks to see how many times Schaub has made plays which impacted the Texans' chances of winning by more than 20%. While there is clearly some subjectivity here, it still jives with what my eyes are telling me. In short, according to his analysis, Schaub has thrown 14 INTs which resulted in a 20% or more decrease in the Texans' win percentage since 2008. This is far and away the league worst. The next group of QBs all come in at 9 INTs (Sanchez, Romo, Brees, Palmer, Rivers). Also, as a percentage of passes attempted, Schaub is also the worst. In short, since 2008, no one has singlehandedly impacted winning more negatively than Schaub.

The article doesn't stop there, however. He then looks into plays where a QB has increased his team's chances of winning by 20% or more. This makes sense because you can have a "gunslinger" QB who may make some back breaking plays, but who also pulls out some games by making big plays as well. This turns out to be true with Romo (9), Brees (8), Stafford (11), etc. While they occasionally will toss a horrendous INT, they make as many or more big positive plays. Unfortunately for Schaub, there is no upside to go with the downside. Since 2008, Schaub has made 2 plays which increased the Texans' chances of winning by more than 20%. This ties him with Christian Ponder, Shaun Hill, Matt Moore, Curtis Painter, Alex Smith and Stephen McGee.

In short, Schaub is the league worst since 2008 in crippling his team with untimely INTs (14), yet has shown no corresponding ability to make big plays in a positive direction (only 2).

Here's the link -

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mike-sando/post?id=1220

[Joshua]

Here's a couple excerpts since I'm not sure I explained this terribly well -

"A little context is in order before we get to Romo, Schaub and the other NFL heartbreakers. Ten years of play-by-play data have set expectations for winning based on specific game circumstances including the score, down, distance, quarter, time remaining, venue and field surface. This data showed the Cowboys with a 55.9 percent win probability when they had first-and-10 from their own 20-yard line with 2:39 remaining in a tie game Sunday. The sack Romo took on first down reduced those chances by 7.7 percentage points. Then came the fateful pick, and, just like that, the Broncos had the ball at the Dallas 24. Denver's win probability stood at 77.6 percent, and the Cowboys were essentially finished.

. . .

"The pick-six Schaub threw on the third play of the Houston Texans' 34-3 defeat at San Francisco gave him one in four successive games, a record. It was also his least damaging of the four, by far, because so much time remained in the game. His previous three came deeper into one-score games, affecting win probability by between 24 and 39 percent on each. Those three killer picks give Schaub a league-high 14 in the "worst" category reserved for interceptions reducing win probability by at least 20 percentage points. That's five more than anyone else since 2008.

"Schaub needs a high pain threshold. He has thrown 64 picks since 2008, and 21.9 percent of those fell into the "worst" category. That's twice the league average and is the highest rate for any current NFL starter.

"The chart to the right shows the 10 quarterbacks with at least eight interceptions in the "worst" category since 2008. The final two columns show these plays in relation to total pass attempts. Schaub not only has the highest raw total but also has one of the highest rates per pass attempt. Although Drew Brees is tied for second with nine "worst" interceptions, his percentage is half of Schaub's.

. . .

"Some of the quarterbacks most closely associated with these costly interceptions also rank among the leaders in plays producing the largest positive swings. Fifteen of Eli Manning's touchdown passes since 2008 produced gains in win probability of at least 20 points, by far the most in the NFL in that span. Matthew Stafford (11), Romo (9), Tom Brady (9), Brees (8), Rodgers (8), Ryan (7) and Cutler (7) are next on the list.

"The total for Schaub? Two, tied with a group featuring Troy Smith, Stephen McGee, Shaun Hill, Matt Moore, Curtis Painter, Christian Ponder, Alex Smith and a few players whose careers remain in their formative stages.

"This is not an airtight measure. Interceptions aren't the only way a quarterback can significantly hurt his team's chances, just as touchdowns aren't the only way he can effect a positive swing. But if Schaub or any quarterback is going to give away games with so many killer interceptions, we might reasonably expect greater positive return on the other side.

"Schaub remains near the bottom when we expand the criteria from interceptions and touchdowns to include all QB action plays featuring win probability changes of at least 20 points. He has nine plus-20-percent plays and 16 minus-20-percent plays, producing a minus-7 differential that ranks second-worst in the league since 2008 among current starters. Philip Rivers is at minus-13, including minus-3 this season, but he has done enough right to trail only Peyton Manning in Total QBR this season. Schaub ranks 27th in QBR, one spot below Geno Smith and one ahead of winless Eli Manning."

[Nconroe]

As you know statics can be made to show almost anythong depending on data being sampled.

It might be interesting if he ran numbers just for 2011, and 2012 when team had a winning record. And how many of 14 bad and 2 good were during those two years.

But yes turnovers are huge and huge this year for sure.

[HPF Bob]

They used to call Jake Plummer "The Evangelist" because he had the ability to make 70,000 people yell the name of Jesus in unison. Schaub has approached that category. And Plummer had his statistical defenders as well but it didn't stop Shanahan from drafting Jay Cutler when given the chance.

[Nconroe]

I have no problem with planning on replacing Schaub , timing not sure of yet.

Schaubs has some weaknesses and some strengths.

Last 3 games has us focused on the negatives.

I like stats too, just not too sure what they mean, there may be other extenuating circumstances.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

I have no problem with planning on replacing Schaub , timing not sure of yet.

Schaubs has some weaknesses and some strengths.

Last 3 games has us focused on the negatives.

I like stats too, just not too sure what they mean, there may be other extenuating circumstances.

If 3 games shows us only weaknesses, what does analysis going back to 2008 show us?

[popanot]

I think these stats confirm what our eyes see. Schaub makes killer mistakes in big games, and for the most part, wilts when the pressure is on. He's good enough to beat the bad teams, but not good enough to beat the top teams.