Why Can't the Defense Stop Elite QBs?

[Keith]

Starting a new thread here since the other one is focused more on the offense.

Wade Phillips' defense has performed wonderfully against the average and mediocre QBs of the NFL (er, except you, Chad Henne. Not sure what happened there).

It has been atrocious against the likes of Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning (and if I pull out my crystal ball, maybe Andrew Luck too). Hard to feel too bad about that since these guys are Hall of Famers in the making, but if the Texans are going to win a Super Bowl against QBs of this quality, they need to do a better job against them than allowing 4+ passing TDs per game.

Wade likes to blitz and play man. Good QBs can read a blitz. So how do the Texans adjust? Or is different personnel needed? Or when the Texans play these guys again, should Kubiak just assume the offense needs to score 5 TDs to have a shot?

[cadams]

i have thought abou this a lot over the past few weeks. i honestly think it is scheme. wade's defesne is GREAT when everything is working like it should, but that doesn't alway happen (obviously), and the great qbs can really take advantage of the defense not clicking when you leave your pass defenders out on islands in man coverage. brady has had his worst performances when defenses have broken from their mold and added a lot of zone work to throw him off (see jets in playoffs two years ago).

specifically, during the game on sunday, brady repeatedly used the hard count to get a guage on where they blitz was coming from, and it seemed like more often that not he got the right read and was able to exploit a bad matchup. cushing being out really hurt this team in pass coverage, and i think that wade should have recognized that and thrown some wrinkles in to try to offset that disadvantage . . .less man, zone blitzes, etc

[Joshua]

With the way the rules currently favor the offense, trying to put together a defense to stop an elite QB is somewhat of a fool's errand. Not to say you shouldn't try, but I certainly wouldn't try to build my team around winning games 14-10 against QBs like them. However, if you want to concentrate on something, seems like the few who have had success are those who get pressure without blitzing. While this involves some scheming, it is largely just having better players who are winning one-on-one battles. So, yeah, I recommend that.

While clearly upgrading your defense is a good thing and a worthwhile endeavor, I think any team should acknowledge that it likely won't be able to contain a QB like Brady for an entire game and better also be figuring out a way to score in the 30s themselves.

[barrett]

Because they are elite.

Every defense is better against average and mediocre QBs than against the elite ones.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

Every defense is better against average and mediocre QBs than against the elite ones.

Of course, but these guys aren't posting the kind of #s they had against the Texans when they play other teams, even those with lesser defenses, week in and week out.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Of course, but these guys aren't posting the kind of #s they had against the Texans when they play other teams, even those with lesser defenses, week in and week out.

They are posting exactly those kinds of numbers. Brady scored 4 offensive TDs in less than a quarter against the 49ers last month. They might have the best defense in the last 5 years. Brady averaged 300 yards passing and had better than a 4:1 TD to INT ratio this year.

The NFL is designed for offenses to win and defenses to lose. You can mitigate the damage, but when is the last team to win a superbowl primarily with Defense? Probably the 1st Patriots superbowl and then they changed the rules and haven't stopped changing them since.

And our defense did very well against Manning and Luck. Manning had a career high for incompletions in a game and Luck barely had %50 completion. In the games we scored we won against those guys.

And since we didn't play Brees, that means the question is why can't our defense stop Brady and Rodgers, and the answer to that is a million dollar question.

[Keith]

I'll give you Manning and Brees' performances as being normal for them. Brees especially in 2011 was just in an amazing groove that season, and the Texans defense was just in its third game under Phillips.

Brady, Rodgers, and Luck though put up some of their best performances of 2012 against the Texans defense.

Brady threw for 4 TDs against the Texans in Dec (and 3 more on Sunday). He threw 4 TDs in a single game just one other time this season (that weird London game against the Rams). His passer rating in the December game was 125.4, 29 points higher than his season average. It was 115 on Sunday, 25 points higher than his career playoff average. You mention the 49er game... as if the Texans could hold the Pats to 10 points through the first three quarters. Perhaps the 49er defense took their foot off the gas late in the 3rd quarter up 31-3?

Rodgers threw for 6 TDs against the Texans in Dec. It was a career high. His passer rating of 133.8 was 29 points higher than his season average.

Andrew Luck had a 4:0 TD:INT ratio and passer ratings of 95.6 and 96.0 in his two games against the Texans, both numbers 20 points higher than his season average. Take away the two Texans games, and his TD:INT ratio was 19:18.

[popanot]

I think it's the combination of our front 4 not getting sufficient pressure (Barwin, Reed and Smith were MIA most of the year), and then throw in sub-par LB play (and especially if the blitzing LB/DB can't get to the QB either), it puts incredible pressure on the secondary and LBs to stay with their man. To top that off, our secondary was wreck the last 1/3 of the season.

When you're playing guys like Alexander, James, Ruud, gimp-Sharpton, Keo, Harris and Ball you better pray you're main pass rushers are playing at a semi-Pro Bowl level or the elite QB's are going to pick you apart. Of course, some of it is on the coaching staff too for not coming with better schemes, players and getting better play out of thier core guys (Barwin, Reed, Manning, etc.).

Rodgers' bad games this year were due to him being under incredible pressure. We couldn't get any on him and he killed us for it.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

I'll give you Manning and Brees' performances as being normal for them. Brees especially in 2011 was just in an amazing groove that season, and the Texans defense was just in its third game under Phillips.

Brady, Rodgers, and Luck though put up some of their best performances of 2012 against the Texans defense.

Brady threw for 4 TDs against the Texans in Dec (and 3 more on Sunday). He threw 4 TDs in a single game just one other time this season (that weird London game against the Rams). His passer rating in the December game was 125.4, 29 points higher than his season average. It was 115 on Sunday, 25 points higher than his career playoff average. You mention the 49er game... as if the Texans could hold the Pats to 10 points through the first three quarters. Perhaps the 49er defense took their foot off the gas late in the 3rd quarter up 31-3?

Rodgers threw for 6 TDs against the Texans in Dec. It was a career high. His passer rating of 133.8 was 29 points higher than his season average.

Andrew Luck had a 4:0 TD:INT ratio and passer ratings of 95.6 and 96.0 in his two games against the Texans, both numbers 20 points higher than his season average. Take away the two Texans games, and his TD:INT ratio was 19:18.

In the Indy games, they scored 38 offensive points (not counting the KR TD). That is 19 points a game. That is less than we allowed on average and less than they scored on average. If either the offense or special teams is average in the 2nd game than our defense plays well enough to sweep them. Our defense against Luck was solid.

Rodgers and Brady killed us. They kill just about everyone. Specific to our defense, they are going to eat up man coverage unless they are under heavy pressure. We were not very good at rushing the QB this year. Barwin and Reed combined for 5.5 sacks and Mercilous had 6 in about %10 of the snaps they played. We need an edge pass rush or we will continue to struggle with the elite offenses.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

We were not very good at rushing the QB this year. Barwin and Reed combined for 5.5 sacks and Mercilous had 6 in about %10 of the snaps they played. We need an edge pass rush or we will continue to struggle with the elite offenses.

This is where I'm getting... if the Texans are going to take the step from playoff fodder to playoff champion, they need to evaluate where they need to see the sort of improvement where they can slow down Brady, Manning, etc.

If Barwin is gone (or at best no more effective than he was in 2012), and if Mercilus cannot improve his edge contain and run defense, then there's the argument there to go get the best pass rushing front 7 player they can find in the draft or free agency next year. Even if Barwin is back and Mercilus improves, Antonio Smith then isn't getting to the QB often enough. That need (DE and/or OLB) ought to trump taking an ILB in spite of how thin the Texans are at that position or really any other position. Seems crazy given how they've invested high picks in Reed and Mercilus lately, but apparently it isn't enough.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

This is where I'm getting... if the Texans are going to take the step from playoff fodder to playoff champion, they need to evaluate where they need to see the sort of improvement where they can slow down Brady, Manning, etc.

If Barwin is gone (or at best no more effective than he was in 2012), and if Mercilus cannot improve his edge contain and run defense, then there's the argument there to go get the best pass rushing front 7 player they can find in the draft or free agency next year. Even if Barwin is back and Mercilus improves, Antonio Smith then isn't getting to the QB often enough. That need (DE and/or OLB) ought to trump taking an ILB in spite of how thin the Texans are at that position or really any other position. Seems crazy given how they've invested high picks in Reed and Mercilus lately, but apparently it isn't enough.

I think if Mercilous plays more it will make a huge difference. Like I said, he had more sacks than the rest of the guys combined despite his limited playing time. Sure, he doesn't play the run as well as those guys, but Cushing's healthy return (fingers crossed), should allow us to get away with Mercilous and not miss the run defense from what is really a pass rushing spot (WOLB). An improvement at NT could also help offset Mercilous in the run game. But he gets to the QB and has to play more.

I also really hope Antonio Smith is back. I think he is a huge part of Watt's success, and he puts up fantastic 34 DE numbers in his own right.

I really think most of the defensive issues are tied to Cushing's absence and problems running down hill. He is the tough guy and emotional leader. Watt is phenomenal but kind of a goof ball (smarter Gronkowski). Cushing is the tackling machine that allows all of the front 7 to slant and stunt so much, he's one of our best pass rushers, he's our best LB in coverage by a mile (and the Pats killed us with RBs and TEs in the passing game), and he is a guy that strikes a little fear in the opposing team just from how violent he is.

But obviously if Barwin goes we need another 34 OLB pretty early in the draft. I would for sure look there before ILB just because of the relative values in our scheme. Plus I am ok with James/Dobbins/Mid Round rookie if Cushing is healthy.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by barrett

I also really hope Antonio Smith is back. I think he is a huge part of Watt's success, and he puts up fantastic 34 DE numbers in his own right.

Watt is spoiling the fans here, Smith's year was comparable to the year that Gary Walker had in 2002 and that got Gary to the Pro Bowl. Smith is not the problem.

We need an ILB who is a force to go along with Cushing, and we need better production from the OLBs. Sadly I have five positions that could be addressed with the 1st round pick: ILB, OLB, NT, WR or TE.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Watt is spoiling the fans here, Smith's year was comparable to the year that Gary Walker had in 2002 and that got Gary to the Pro Bowl. Smith is not the problem.

We need an ILB who is a force to go along with Cushing, and we need better production from the OLBs. Sadly I have five positions that could be addressed with the 1st round pick: ILB, OLB, NT, WR or TE.

I'd be ok with any of those 5. I had not considered TE, but if there was a great one available I would probably prefer that to a WR since we are more likely to effectively use a great TE. An ILB would have to be special and multitalented (a pass rush and coverage guy in addition to regular ILB skills).

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by painekiller

. Sadly I have five positions that could be addressed with the 1st round pick: ILB, OLB, NT, WR or TE.

Guys that fit these positions who might be available when we pick in the 1st:

ILB - Manti Te'o Notre Dame (who knows how far he will fall), Kevin Minter LSU
OLB - Alex Okafor Texas; Ezekiel Ansah BYU; Margus Hunt SMU
NT - Jesse Williams, Alabama; John Jenkins Georgia; Sharrif Floyd Florida; Kawann Short Purdue
WR - *Cordarrelle Patterson Tennessee; Tavon Austin West Virginia; Robert Woods Southern California; DeAndre Hopkins Clemson; Terrance Williams Baylor; Justin Hunter Tennessee
TE - Zach Ertz Stanford; Tyler Eifert Notre Dame

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Guys that fit these positions who might be available when we pick in the 1st:

ILB - Manti Te'o Notre Dame (who knows how far he will fall)

I don't watch too much college ball so didn't see this guy play all year until the BCS game with 'Bama, but if you saw that game he was very disappointing IMO.
The 'Bama Oline pushed him around and when he had a chance to make a play one-on-one vs a back he looked foolish a couple times. And I'm not talking missing the runner in space, he had the 'Bama back coming right thru his gap at the los and failed miserably in his attempt to get him on the ground.
But how do we not use our top picks (atleast 2 of top 3) to draft somebody to play RT and maybe most of all a WR, especially with Andre turning 32 this year ?

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I don't watch too much college ball so didn't see this guy play all year until the BCS game with 'Bama, but if you saw that game he was very disappointing IMO.
The 'Bama Oline pushed him around and when he had a chance to make a play one-on-one vs a back he looked foolish a couple times. And I'm not talking missing the runner in space, he had the 'Bama back coming right thru his gap at the los and failed miserably in his attempt to get him on the ground.
But how do we not use our top picks (atleast 2 of top 3) to draft somebody to play RT and maybe most of all a WR, especially with Andre turning 32 this year ?

Teo flashed all this and last season, until he played Bama. Watch the tape on the kid, he is an impact player. Now the questioned surrounding the girlfriend story point to huge judgment issues off the field, so the team that takes him will need to do their homework on him. He was a top 15 pick IMO before this story.

As for a RT, IMO Newton showed more growth at RT then we saw from Duane Brown after 16 starts, that is pointing to an upside that I can live with at RT.So I do not have the RT as a top priority, now if the team were to take a guy like Oday Aboushi or Barrett Jones I would not be upset.

I just see 5 or 6 other positions as bigger needs right now.

**note** 6 = I forgot to add Safety to the need positions if we do not resign Quin.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Teo flashed all this and last season, until he played Bama. Watch the tape on the kid, he is an impact player. Now the questioned surrounding the girlfriend story point to huge judgment issues off the field, so the team that takes him will need to do their homework on him. He was a top 15 pick IMO before this story.

OK, like I said I don't watch much college ball and I know you do, so if his game vs Alabama was not really him then I'll call that effort an outlier. But there's still this -with Cushing's contract would you really want to tie up 1st round money in a second ILB which is afterall a low-priority position ?

Originally Posted by painekiller

As for a RT, IMO Newton showed more growth at RT then we saw from Duane Brown after 16 starts, that is pointing to an upside that I can live with at RT.So I do not have the RT as a top priority, now if the team were to take a guy like Oday Aboushi or Barrett Jones I would not be upset.

I wish I shared your optimism of Newton as the Texans answer on a long-term basis for RT.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

OK, like I said I don't watch much college ball and I know you do, so if his game vs Alabama was not really him then I'll call that effort an outlier. But there's still this -with Cushing's contract would you really want to tie up 1st round money in a second ILB which is afterall a low-priority position ?

Someone else maybe better versed on the new labor agreement, and the slotting of the 1st round picks. My understanding is that after the top 10 the money is not crazy like it used to be.

And I want an impact player no matter what position we pick. I was has clamoring for Stephen Hill last off season, so I still think we need to go with an offensive play maker.

[WMH]

Watching the game yesterday brought me to the conclusion that we weren't effective against the Pats due to stubbornness by Phillips.

Do the Ravens have that much more talent on D than we do?

I sure don't think so, but they changed thier scheme to combat the quick pace, short passing game that Brady and Co. thrive at. The result, they gave up 13 pts......

Oh, and the Ravens bitch slapped them around too.

Frustrating.

[cadams]

yeah, i am very concerned that no changes to the defensive shceme were made by phillips after the first patriots game. there is a book on the way to try to slow brady down, and it seemed like phillips just decided that he plays defesne his way and that is that.

i don't know that i am right, but it seems like it.