One of the older truisms in picking football winners was to take the underdog in the last two weeks of the season. Teams that have already clinched are in rest-up mode and let's-just-stay-healthy mode and not inclined to give 100% effort. The books have gotten wise to this and have adjusted accordingly these days but it still holds true, just not as definitive as it used to be. There is a certain amount of easing up that is going to take place over the next 2 weeks. One has to be very selective when implementing this strategy as there will still be favorites that cover....
Some teams will still be fighting for the playoffs and need a win badly - this is not a good reason to pick a team. There's a saying that goes (paraphrasing), "if a team needs to win, then they must not be very good in the first place". In other words, if they were good, they would have already wrapped up a playoff spot. Happens every year - a team badly needs a win to advance to the playoffs and they inexplicably lose to a lesser team.......
|