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Originally Posted by barrett
I agree with everything you are typing here and I think it is why DL is in play. There simply are not many other good options/values.
There is no position on offense I would go with in round 1. RB is our only need there, but you don't draft a backup RB in round 1 even if he is going to share time. I think a bigger back can be had round 3 or later.
FS would be a great pick but with Mays gone I don't know if any warrants the #15 pick.
SLB is the most useless and low impact position on a defense. They are 2 down players who make very few plays.
A WLB or a MLB that would move Demeco is slightly more valuable than a sam, but it is a huge price both financially and asset-wise to pay for a 4-3 OLB. The OLB is just not a huge position in the 4-3.
If Dunta is gone than I think it almost automatically becomes a CB unless there is a run of them off the board before us.
DT does not make that much sense to me since we have 3 decent young guys in Okoye, TJ, and Robinson. I understand some picking up a bigger type to clog the middle and would be ok with it, but don't think it is a huge key. Honestly our LBs stayed pretty clean this year. The bigger problem of the DTs was penetration and we are supposed to have that guy already in Okoye. Replacing him won't happen yet because he was a pick of this staff.
That leaves DE. Mario is the only DE we have drafted and he worked out great. But like Roy P, I would rather see a 2 down player from either Buhlman or a low draft pick, and then couple them with a pass rush specialist who is middle round because of his size. I don't think it has to be a 1st round pick.
So who do I want? Honestly I would love to trade down, because I simply don't see the value and need meeting up for us at #15. If we could drop out of the first round altogether or drop down twice even better. If we end up with a pair of 2s and pair of 3s we can get all of the things we are looking for (big RB, FS, DE, Josh Freeman to develop as a QB to replace Sage).
If we get stuck at #15, then BPA out of the FS, DT, DE (or CB if Dunta is gone).
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In order to figure out who the Texans WILL draft, instead of who we as fans would select, I think it is important to try to get inside Smith's and Kubiak's heads. That's a pretty hard thing to do because of how close to the vest they play their cards. That said, here's what I think: I think Kubiak is relatively pleased with last year's safety play.
I know a lot of fans in Houston want a true-old-style-roaming-speed- burning free safety, but that's not the style of safety Kubes covets. I'm not saying he wouldn't play one if he fell into our hands, but I just can't see Kubuak giving up a top draft choice to get one of those guys. On the other hand, if a tremendous SS fell to us in the second round, one who was an exceptional tackler and also good in coverage, I guess the Texans might take him. But I don't see anyone like that on the horizon. So I personally see us going with our two older veterans backed up by Harrison and Barber. Demps may get cut, but if he doesn't, that would create such a log jam at safety that I just don't see us going for a safety even in a lower round.
I'm thinking the most likely for our first pick is a run stuffing tackle as a rotation guy, or a DE who would allow us to cut Weaver and his huge salary. I could also see up going for a LB if the coaches fall in love with one. I could even see us going for Moreno if the coaches are in love with him. If we go with a DE in the first, I could see us going for another one in a lower round. The roster right now isn't exactly full of talented DEs.