Quote:
Originally Posted by Arky
The Panthers were 3½ pt favorites early but the injury to Texan QB Tyrod Taylor made the line shoot up to 7½ to 9. If the Texan defense can keep on forcing some turnovers, I'll take a chance on the rookie holding his own so gimme those points:
Panthers 28, Texans 26
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This is an ick game to pick against a spread. Short week, plus it's Mills' first start without the benefit of even a full week of prep. But home teams are tough on Thursday nights, and the better coached team always has an advantage. In a small sample size, the Texans coaches seem to have the team outperforming their perceived talent. Plus, the Panthers offense is great with McCaffrey, but it seems hard to expect Darnold to pile on points through the air.
The Panthers are winning this though, just a question of by how much. The closer this game gets to -9, -9.5, -10 or higher, the more I'd avoid. Games with rookie QBs can spiral out of control in a hurry, but I don't see Mills throwing a bunch of picks. I don't see the Texans slowing down the Panthers ground game. And they're likely to play behind at least half or more of this one, with the Panthers' keeping the clock churning. Feels like Panthers 23-13 to me. I'd take the Panthers, boot the points and take the under.