Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
Mod note: Splitting this wild card discussion from the Titans game thread.
Yikes, a home dog in the playoffs. I'm usually way better picking heads up instead of against the spread, but I'd avoid picking the Seahawks especially if that spread grows over the week. So give me the Eagles (+1).
My other amateur spread picks...
Houston (-3)… we all know this game will be closer than it should be, and nationally I can see a lot of people taking the points and the Bills here. BUT, a healthy-ish Fuller and a return of Watt at home, and I do think the Texans avoid chuck's predicted ass rape for one more week at least.
Titans (+5.5) and heads up… kinda like the Colts were for the Texans last season, the Pats match up terribly here with the Titans. Plus their WR Brown gives me happy thoughts of what a young Andre Johnson was like. And seeing the Patriots lose at home on *shudder* wild card weekend is a bit of wish fulfillment.
Vikings (+8) but Saints to win... New Orleans is one of the tougher #3 seeds in recent memory. Hard to pick a game giving up more than a TD though as I think the Vikings will play hard throughout, but I could also see this being a blowout win for the Saints.
pick wisely...your mileage may vary.
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Very good. If you haven't guessed by now, I kinda like these discussions. I'm interested in the whole science behind trying to beat the spread...
Having said that, I had a terrible year this year. Even picking straight up.
I started out OK, but it went south during the season. I zigged when I should've zagged. In the money contest I'm in, I went 0-5 to finish the contest culminating in a best bet on the Seahawks that came up about a ˝ foot short of covering on SNF. That's the way it goes sometimes....
I'm thinking the Saints at home are going to run away with it. I see some leftover revenge factor from the Keenum robbery (last year? Two years ago?).
Good Texans will cover, bad Texans won't. I know, not much insight with that statement.... I keep waiting for the Texan defense to find itself - a bit like the Chiefs defense of late. It's lose-and-you-go-home time, so time to get it going.... If you can't beat the Bills.......
Yes, AJ Brown is beasty. Pats are showing some cracks. Very well could be a Titans upset... Tough to go against the Pats at home, though..
I'm leaning Russell Wilson to get it done up in Philly but need to look into it a bit more...
Sometimes the simplest logic is the correct one. I think I over-analyzed quite a bit this year and it led me astray... At any rate, just some thoughts from a guy on a losing streak, eheh....