4. Energy level, tough spot
The Texans are coming off about as emotional a Week 12 victory as a team could have, 34-17 against a division rival who beat them earlier in the season, three days after the death of the owner of the team. If you want to re-live the energy in the building that night, then watch this video from the Texans, which deserves an award (if there is such a thing for three minute Twitter videos). It is awesome:
(Video at website)
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Houston Texans
✔
@HoustonTexans
Monday night was for Mr. McNair.
2,083
11:01 AM - Nov 28, 2018
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So how will the Texans' energy level be on a short week of prep, as a decided favorite (the spread is Texans -7), and with a more important game lurking the following week against the Colts? This, to me, is the biggest question about Sunday's game — which Texans team shows up, the one that let the woeful Bills hang around for an entire afternoon, or the one that took the Titans to the woodshed on Monday night? For his part, Bill O'Brien has been doing EVERYTHING possible to diffuse any sense of great accomplishment with this eight game winning streak. In fact, this is a good time to pivot to the next bullet point...
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1. Deshaun Watson, 25 is a magic number
Here are Dehsaun Watson's dropback, sack, and QB hit numbers for the first six weeks of the season:
WEEK 1: 37 dropbacks, 3 sacks, 12 QB hits
WEEK 2: 36 dropbacks, 4 sacks, 11 QB hits
WEEK 3: 43 dropbacks, 3 sacks, 11 QB hits
WEEK 4: 49 dropbacks, 7 sacks, 11 QB hits
WEEK 5: 45 dropbacks, 1 sack, 10 QB hits
WEEK 6: 32 dropbacks, 7 sacks, 15 QB hits
Here are Deshaun Watson's dropback, sack, and QB hit numbers for the next six weeks of the season:
WEEK 7: 25 dropbacks, 1 sack, 5 QB hits
WEEK 8: 20 dropbacks, 0 sacks, 1 QB hit
WEEK 9: 28 dropbacks, 4 sacks, 4 QB hits
WEEK 10: BYE
WEEK 11: 27 dropbacks, 3 sacks, 4 QB hits
WEEK 12: 28 dropbacks, 4 sacks, 6 QB hits
No surprise that the formula for how to deploy Watson changed drastically the week that he was forced to take a bus to Jacksonville for the game, because flying would have endangered his bruised lungs. Twenty-five is the magic number — keep Watson under 25 pass attempts, keep him healthy, win the game.
SPREAD: Texans -5.5
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Browns 21
RECORD: 7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS
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