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Originally Posted by HPF Bob
All I can say, Barrett, is that if past drafting history is irrelevant, we would have Derek Carr as our quarterback now and would not have needed to chase Osweiler. Yes, I see your point that it *should* be irrelevant but other times it just history repeating itself.
I remember reading a report once from a guy who said he'd never draft a (Univ. of) Texas player because former strength coach "Mad Dog" Madden would add weight on them with no definition (much like himself). The scout predicted All-America OT Mike Williams would be a bust as a pro because he was "all fat". Buffalo took him at #4 or #5 that year based on reputation and, indeed, Williams turned out to be a bust and quickly out of the league.
The facts are we drafted Nix out of Notre Dame in the third who never played a down, Martin out of ND in the second who hasn't played a down and Fuller out of ND in the first who can't catch a pass but at least can suit up. If I were Rick Smith, I would look into Notre Dame's conditioning program before I drafted another Irish player, particularly a lineman.
Applying this to drafting Mahomes, it is easy to name record-setting QBs from Texas Tech, but name me one who turned into a solid or successful NFL quarterback.
As for this Webb kid, if he's the guy who beat the Longhorns last year, he needs to bring his WR with him (Martin??) because those two were lethal together. Webb graduated from (guess?) Texas Tech and still had a year of eligibility so he contacted Cal (which just lost Goff to the NFL) and agreed to enroll just enough to stay eligible but his true major was "NFL quarterback studies". Had he stayed at Tech, he would have been behind Mahomes but this guy felt he had NFL talent if he could just get to play. I must say, what I saw of him at Cal was impressive but then slicing and dicing the Longhorn secondary was ridiculously easy last season.
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Anyone can cherry pick a random assortment of draft results and make them appear to mean something.
The year before Mike Williams, UT had 3 lineman drafted, Leonard Davis, Casey Hampton, and Shaun Rodgers. All 3 played at least a dozen years in the NFL. Not drafting UT players based on who was the strength coach in that time would have been idiotic.
The Patriots are lucky they didn't stay away from Michigan QBs in 2000 after Elvis Grbac (1993), Todd Collins (1995), Brian Griese (1998).
The Panthers were sure hurt by taking a read option guy. They should have gone with the pro style guy who was also top 10 that year, Jake Locker.
Nick Hayden and Matt Shaughnessy were Wisconsin DL who busted in the 3 years before JJ Watt. I guess the strength coach must be an issue and we should have stayed away from Watt.
Talent is talent is talent. You draft talent and put it in position to succeed. Who else went to school somewhere shouldn't be in the top 50 concerns a talent evaluator has.