Interesting read from Barnwell:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...broncos-week-4
Schaub Story
It's safe to say that Texans fans are beginning to turn on Matt Schaub. Schaub, whose skill level almost perfectly matches the public perception that the Texans are good enough to make the playoffs and not good enough to do any serious damage once they get there, threw a horrific pick-six on Sunday to open the door for a Seahawks comeback win, which is exactly what ended up occurring in overtime. Houston fans were so angry after the game and Schaub's third pick-six in three weeks that they went to the parking lot and started burning Schaub's jersey. That's the third-most destructive act you can execute as a Houston sports fan after denouncing advanced basketball statistics and attending an Astros game, so these are pretty brutal times.
Allow me to play both sides here. Schaub's interception was grotesque and impossibly ill-advised, and it's been a distressing stretch of pick-sixes from him, but this bad run comes with some excuses and there's no reason to think that Houston absolutely needs to upgrade from Schaub to have a quarterback "good enough" to win the Super Bowl.
Start with that throw, which was more shocking and virulent than anything else on television Sunday night. The throw itself is ugly on aesthetics alone; Schaub rolls out right off play-action and, with a man in his face, decides to lob up a pass to a receiver he must have thought was wide open. Somehow, he fails to see the best cornerback in the league lurking behind that tight end, and Richard Sherman is all too happy to undercut the throw as it hangs in space for all eternity. It's a pass we would all have made fun of for weeks had it been thrown by Mark Sanchez or Blaine Gabbert.
What's worse is that it came in a situation when Schaub needed to err on the side of protecting the football. Houston was facing a third-and-4 with 2:51 left in a game where it was up 20-13; even if the Texans didn't convert on third down and punted, Seattle was going to have to drive the length of the field and score a touchdown to tie the game. I'm all for being aggressive and trying to win games, and I actually like Gary Kubiak's decision to try to throw the ball with a safe pass underneath on third down, but Schaub should never have even considered forcing a throw. He should have been happy to take a sack and either run clock or force Seattle to take a timeout. He needs to know that, and you can imagine how hard it will be for Kubiak to trust him in the same situation next time, even though a throw might be the best call in that game down the line. In all, ESPN Stats & Information calculated Schaub's interception to be the most meaningful play of the week in terms of win expectancy, as the Texans had a 95.1 percent chance of winning the game before the play and merely a 56.3 percent chance of winning afterward. The game wasn't over, since Houston still had a two-minute drill and two drives in overtime to try to win the game, but it failed to score on any of those possessions and lost a heartbreaker when the Seahawks kicked a field goal to win it late in overtime.
Terrible throw. Now, again, let's put it in context. It was Schaub's third pick-six in three weeks, but it's not like Schaub has some disease where he throws awful pick-sixes; according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Schaub didn't throw a single pick-six in either the 2011 or 2012 seasons. He has 10 across seven seasons as the Houston starter, which isn't an egregious average. Fans wouldn't think too hard about a quarterback throwing an interception per week over a three-week stretch, but because they've resulted in instant touchdowns, fans are naturally more upset about the results of those interceptions.
That's part of being a fan, but it doesn't mean Schaub is somehow doomed to be a guy who gives up too many dangerous throws for pick-sixes. Plenty of famous quarterbacks have thrown three pick-sixes (or more!) in a three-week stretch before or during successful careers that included Super Bowl–winning seasons. Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees each had three-game stretches with three or more pick-sixes and then didn't throw another one for a year each. Peyton Manning had such a stretch in 2001, threw one pick-six between 2002 and 2006, did the same thing again in 2008, didn't throw a pick-six in 2009, then threw four of them in two weeks in 2010. He's still doing OK.
In fact, Eli Manning threw three pick-sixes in one game against the Vikings in November 2007 and didn't throw another pick-six until the following campaign. That ugly game also started a dismal run for Eli, one which suggested he might not be ready to play at the high level the Giants envisioned after taking him first overall. Sure enough, Manning was dragged to the playoffs by his team at the end of the season and put together an incredible run there, producing an unlikely Super Bowl win just two and a half months after his three-pick-six day.
That Eli could play so poorly and still get a ring speaks volumes to how useless the "good enough to win the Super Bowl" signifier is. We5 treat it at times as if it's some kind of clear line of demarcation — like you need to be this tall to ride the roller coaster and this good to win the Super Bowl. Recent history should tell us that there's no such clear line.
Pretend, for a moment, that Eli Manning and Joe Flacco had produced the same Week 4 performances this week without any notable run in the playoffs to their name. Would anybody in their right mind look at their days (or 2013 seasons, for that matter) and suggest they were good enough to win the Super Bowl? Of course not! In fact, Giants and Ravens fans would be sitting in the same parking lots saying the same things about how they needed to upgrade at quarterback to have any hope of winning a Super Bowl. Because Manning and Flacco each already won a Lombardi Trophy, we don't think about them in the "not good enough to win a Super Bowl" way, despite what their poor performance would otherwise suggest. Just as they were capable of winning a Super Bowl and are still capable of having bad games, Schaub can have a bad game (or string of games) and still be capable of winning the Super Bowl.
And like any quarterback, he's going to need help from his team, which hasn't offered much: Arian Foster's per-carry numbers are down, as he's averaging 3.8. Andre Johnson got hurt and has missed time over the past few weeks. The team has already been without elite left tackle Duane Brown for the past two games, and star inside linebacker Brian Cushing missed the fourth quarter (when Seattle came back from 20-6 down to tie it up) with a concussion. Remember that Flacco struggled a year ago once his team started losing talented veterans left and right and only really righted the ship once they started making it back onto the field in January.
I feel comfortable saying Schaub is good enough to win a Super Bowl, because I've seen quarterbacks who were worse than him during their season at the helm get hot during the playoffs and win the big trophy. As critical as you are of his throw (and you should be, since it was terrible), there's nothing about it that proves he can't win when it really counts in the longer term. Let T.J. Yates sit on the bench. Schaub should be the guy in Houston. At the very least, when you've got nothing to wear six weeks from now, you're gonna really wish you didn't burn your jersey in the parking lot.
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