Picking the correct winner against the spread (ATS) is a very tough thing to do. It is even hard to maintain a 2:1 ratio (67% correct) picking straight up (SU) as those entered in the pickem contests will verify (It blows my mind how good some of the people in the ESPN pickem contests are. Some of these guys should go straight to Vegas). Picking against the spread is just that much tougher. A lot of smart men can be made to look silly... A monkey can get it right at least 50% of the time, right?
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Originally Posted by HPF Bob
But I don't follow the idea that the Texans are looking past last year's SB champions who could have a head-to-head tie-breaker over playoff seeding against them because they are looking ahead to two NFC opponents. I was ready to agree up to that talking point, which is stupid.
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I wouldn't call it stupid. Maybe faulty logic would be better. One thing I've learned is I want to have a
really good reason why I made my pick so in case it loses, I can still feel somewhat justified about the pick. Quirky things happen sometimes (fumbles, INT's, a DB that knocks down a hail Mary pass straight into the hands of the wrong team). Picking the Chargers because they got cool looking uniforms is not a
really good reason.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HPF Bob
Gamblers try to look for numerical trends to base their decisions. That's what this review is basing their decision on. I'm sure by the same logic, they were betting on the Eagles to cover last night because almost everything they are saying about the Ravens could have been said about the Eagles (home game, need the win, fired up to play ex-coach, more explosive offense, etc.) and most of what they are saying about the Texans applied to Chiefs (on the road, lucky to be 2-0, etc.). EDIT: BTW, Philly was -3 to -3.5 favorite last night.
I just hope it doesn't come down to field goals.
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Actually, Walt had the Chiefs last night (see first game at the
link).
There are some that rely heavily on trend data. Some of this data can get quite obscure (home team coming off a road loss in a Monday night game in the month of October). Most use some combination of trend data and logic, team "hotness", injuries, a feel for team psychology, Ouija board (j/k), etc. You've heard the expression "past performance is no indication of future performance"? That's both true and false in the world of picking ATS.
Though Walt has been slumping the last couple of years, he had a nice run before that. He's not off to a good start this year but what one can't accuse him of, is not doing his homework.....
That said, I hope he's wrong but I would not be shocked if the Ravens won. If the Texans win by 3 or better, at least Walt has some pretty good reasons for picking the way he did.