We have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Pittsburgh but Baltimore has the head-to-head over us. The problem is that if the Texans tie with both then the first elimination is between Pittsburgh and Baltimore which Baltimore wins due to a 2-0 series win over Pittsburgh which then gives Baltimore the tiebreaker over us too.
So, somehow, the Steelers have to finish a game ahead of the Ravens but manage to lose again themselves while Houston wins out in order for Houston to get a first-round bye. That means Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have to lose one more time while Houston does not.
Then it will be:
New England 13-3
Houston 12-4
Pittsburgh 12-4 (loses tiebreaker)
Baltimore 11-5 as a wild card.
In any other rational scenario, we're the #3 seed.
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