[Arky]

Walter Cherepinsky of Walterfootball.com really likes the Texans in this matchup. So much so, he has made this game his October NFL Pick of the Month.

1. Last week was Kansas City's Super Bowl. The players and coaching staff had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. It was their chance to prove to everyone how good they were; for their entire bye week, they listened to the media constantly laugh, "Can you believe the Chiefs are the last undefeated team?"

Kansas City brought the kitchen sink against the Colts. There were onside kicks, creative defensive schemes and attempts on fourth down. Everyone on the Chiefs (except for Dwayne Bowe) played their hearts out. It looked like they had a great chance to win, but just ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. Indianapolis eventually wore them down, and when Mike Hart scored a late touchdown, everyone on the Kansas City sideline looked defeated.

Now, the Chiefs have to travel again to play a Houston squad that looked awful last Sunday. How can Kansas City possibly get up for this game? It's not like they even need to win because everyone else in their division is 2-3.

2. Speaking of the Texans, they were awful against the Giants. As mentioned though, the fact that Andre Johnson and Arian Foster weren't healthy really screwed up the game plan. In the wake of Houston's big loss, this line has dipped down to -4.5. Had the Texans won, we may have seen -5.5 or -6 on the board. We're getting solid value here with the host.

3. Houston is coming off a huge loss. So, what does that mean? Well, for one thing, they have a 72.3-percent chance of covering according to a trend I mentioned in the Chargers-Rams game. Teams that lose the point spread by 25 or more points are 74-36 against the spread the following week. But here's the catch - if they are favored, they're 34-13 against the number. Gary Kubiak is 1-0 in this dynamic.

The explanation behind this trend is simple. First, no one wants to bet on a team that looked inept the previous week, so that drags the line down (and as you can see below, most people are betting on the Chiefs). And second, teams that humiliate themselves have extra motivation to rebound the following week after hearing the national media bash them ad nauseum.

4. More cool numbers: Kubiak is 4-1 against the spread when favored after losing as a favorite. Kubiak is also 4-1 versus the number after losing at home by 10-plus points. And finally, Kubiak is a flawless 3-0 against the line going into the bye. The Hello, Goodbye Trend would apply if Houston were -6.5.

Again, I love the Texans here. I eyed this contest prior to last week's games. My plan was to bet Houston big if the Chiefs lost a close game to the Colts. Little did I know that the Texans would embarrass themselves against the Giants to garner extra motivation.


The Psychology. Edge: Texans. **
The Chiefs put a lot into last week's game at Indianapolis. They played incredibly hard, but ran out of gas at the end.

More info at the link. When Walter uses a two-star Psychology edge (like the Texans have), he's correct 67% of the time. Maybe it's just me but I felt a lot more optimistic about the team after reading this.....