[Arky]

The Texans are the biggest choke artists in the NFL.

This is the worst spread in NFL history.

Wow, the dude over at walterfootball.com is about as subtle as a sledgehammer. Can't say I share his love for hyperbole... At any rate, he makes some good points and likes New England 24-20. Here's the full jist of his comments:

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: This line would seem to indicate that the Patriots won't be playing their starters, but that's hardly the case; I'll discuss this further in the recap, but Bill Belichick said that no healthy starters will be rested this week.

I expect to see Tom Brady playing for at least three quarters. Brady finally looked healthy for the first time in about a month last week, going 23-of-26 for 267 yards and four touchdowns. You may argue that those numbers were a byproduct of Jacksonville's horrific defense, and I couldn't dispute that. However, Houston's secondary isn't very good either.

The Texans really excel at stopping the run, so don't expect as many long Sammy Morris runs this week. Still, I can't see Houston's defense having much success as long as Brady is in the game.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of poor secondaries, New England's has had its share of embarrassment in that area this year. However, it's worth noting that the Patriots just completely shut down David Garrard, so perhaps their defensive backfield has improved.

Having said that, it's pretty difficult to contain Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Patriots don't have the pass rush to get to Schaub, who has taken just one sack in the past three weeks. Schaub will have all the time in the world to torch New England's secondary.

Like the Patriots, Houston's ground attack won't be much of a factor. I have no faith in Arian Foster, and New England stops the run pretty well.

RECAP: In 2005, the Patriots were locked into the No. 4 seed. Brady and the starters played only one quarter against the Dolphins in Week 17, ultimately losing, 28-26 to a hot Miami squad that had ripped off six straight victories (but finished at 9-7). That was the Doug Flutie drop kick game.

However, just one year later, New England was the No. 4 seed again, but had a chance to move up to No. 3 with an Indianapolis loss. The Patriots played the Titans, who needed a victory to get into the playoffs. In that contest, Brady played three quarters, beating Tennessee, 40-23.

This game seems a lot like the 2006 iteration. The Patriots are currently No. 3 but could move down to No. 4 with a loss and a Cincinnati win. You may wonder what the difference between those seeds are. Think about it this way: If New England is the top-seeded team remaining come the AFC Championship - a very likely scenario if they beat San Diego; the Colts have given up - they would host the Bengals. If the Patriots lose this contest, they'd have to travel to Cincinnati instead for the AFC title game.

This is the worst spread in NFL history. The assumption is that this game means nothing to the Patriots, which is dead wrong. That's exactly why Belichick said his healthy starters would play.

But what about the Texans? Don't they need a victory more than New England? Of course they do. And that's exactly why I love the Pats here. The Texans are the biggest choke artists in the NFL. How are they going to win this game, let alone cover a touchdown? I don't get it.

I'm strongly considering this as my January NFL Pick of the Month. I'll make my decision later in the week.