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Originally Posted by Nconroe
Excellent research DadMG. Maybe that's why it takes 3 years to judge a draft accurately. I am wondering if perhaps overall defense team ranking fits in there somehow as well. And maybe education level/intelligence?
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Oh, I'm sure those (and other factors such as coaching, college experience) play heavily into rate of development. And, at the very least, overall defense influences the metric by which I was judging these players, Pro Bowl appearances. As I'm sure you've noticed, often times one of the top defenses will have a slew of players make the Pro Bowl all at once.
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Looking at 5 DT on Texans roster now
name, ht, wt, yrs exp, age
Sean Cody, 6-4, 310, 5, 26
Frank Okam, 6-5, 342, 1, 23
DelJuan Robinson. 6-3, 296, 2, 24
Amobi Okoye, 6-2, 302, 2, 21
Travis Johnson, 6-3, 303, 4, 26
So, if theory correct , Sean Cody and Travis Johnson ought to be our best starters this year as they are just entering their prime. The other guys are too young and inexperienced for two more years. At any rate we have a very young Dline and if we draft another we will be even younger.
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I don't think this theory holds that Cody and Johnson are necessarily the best players at the position because they're in their theoretical primes. It just says that right now, and for the next few years, we are likely seeing the best those two players will have to offer. That best might not be as good as the non-prime performance of another player. For instance, Casey Hampton will be 32 this coming year, which is out of those theoretical prime years but I'm sure anyone here would plug him into the lineup in a heartbeat. On the other end of the spectrum, for all we know Okoye could emerge as a better option than either Cody or Johnson whether he's actually hitting his prime or not. If Okoye emerges as a solid starter and Cody doesn't, then it doesn't matter whether Okoye's hit his prime or not because below prime for him might be better than Cody's prime.