Would you trade Watson for....
 

Disgruntled QB DeShaun Watson may be demanding a trade behind the scenes (what took him so long?) so here are two possibilities:

* Houston trades Watson to Miami (his preferred location) in return for Tua, the #3 overall pick (the one we gave them for Tunsil) and a 2022 second-round pick. Houston gets to hit the reset button with a talented young QB on a rookie deal plus a difference-maker at #3 ( Davonta Smith?) or trade down from #3 for multiple picks.

* Houston trades Watson to Arizona for Kyler Murray, the #16 overall selection, plus their second-rounders in 2021 and 2022. Watson is reunited with D-Hop and his baby mamas out in the desert while Houston again resets with a younger QB plus three draft picks. If you're curious, the Cardinals already owe Houston their 4th this year in the D-Hop trade.

Personally, I prefer brittle Tua over The Midget but either one is the sort of draft haul we *should* have got for Hopkins and Watson certainly shouldn't complain about either destination.

Initial gut says I'd personally want more draft pick(s) in return in either scenario, but worth considering is that both Tua and Murray come at much smaller cap figures versus Watson. That truly means something, especially for the Texans who have several position needs to address.

I'd also want to send Watson as far away as possible, which means to the NFC. Only seeing Watson maybe once every four seasons sounds great.

I'm also not a big Tua fan. I think Murray has a ceiling, and I worry how well his game translates as he gets older, but I'd probably prefer Murray over Tua. I could probably be convinced otherwise if I'm missing something on Tua.

This is madness.

For me personally Murray is the closet thing to Michael Vick I've ever seen and
would do that deal in a heartbeat but suspect Arizona isn't foolish enough to
agree to those terms.
As for Tua, definitely not interested.

I saw some rumor somewhere about Watson to Miami for:

Tua
Xavien Howard
#3
#18

I would do that in a heartbeat...and flip #3 to a QB-needy team in the top 10 for their 1st, 2nd and maybe their 1st next year...just depends on what you can get.

Draft Patrick Surtain II with your top 10 pick and you now have 2 top young CBs. Draft best DL or OL available at #18. Draft a RB in the 2nd.

Then, with Tua, you become more run heavy while you finish rebuilding.

One can dream...

If I got Tua, Howard and the #3, all else would be gravy. The rest would just be negotiated out.

The Oilers flat out don't have the talent right now to be contenders so why not shop the last remaining valuable commodity you have and rebuild?

Tua struggled as a rookie but he didn't look bad for a guy who had no training camp. Howard is true value and if the #3 can't be traded down, we can take Davonta Smith and have the equivalent of Andre Johnson II.

You win in the NFL by...

Having the best QB.
Having the QB playing the best at that moment.
Having a roster so good that you make up for your QB.

These deals don't come close to accomplishing any of these. Our roster is not getting fixed by a Watson trade. We are about 15 players away from being the 2014 Seahawks. A few extra picks and Tua won't turn us into the loaded teams that win despite their QB. It will just turn us into the Jags or any of the other teams who have top draft picks every year but no QB.

Which team has traded away a great young QB and then won in the short, medium, or long term after the deal? It's idiotic. He's got four years on his deal and no way out. You hire a coach, take advantage of your last place schedule and hope a year from now he's happy. If he's not you hope he is a year after that. Maybe you consider a deal in 2023 if he's still not. But you don't give away the prime of a great QB because you could get a couple of draft picks to fix your defensive backfield.

And what if he says "screw it, I am sitting out all season"?

I call his bluff. There is zero chance he does it. If he somehow sat a game, then the same deals are there in September/October/November/December/next offseason. There is no way I let a guy with 3 years left dictate his exit. I interview and hire the coach he wants, I resign Fuller to make him happy, and I start whatever comes next with him at the center of it.

The problem appears to be that Deshaun Watson has a problem with Jack Easterby. There is no way the solution to that problem is to figure out what we can get from the Dolphins. The fact anyone entertains that idea is a sign of stockholm syndrome. That should be absolutely unacceptable from our fan base.

You’ve probably seen the quote from someone close to the team that says in effect that Cal’s firing Easterby wouldn’t really move the needle, that Cal would have to fire Cal.

This is a total shitshow beyond anything I have ever fantasized about. When they fired BOB I thought the team would inevitably redirect into an upward trajectory of some sort. Obviously I was wrong.

The reporting on this is a feedback loop. The Texans franchise is incompetent and that makes for easy stories.

They are also 53 weeks away from their last playoff win and they have one of the most desired QBs in football. Fire Easterby and hire any coach Watson likes and this whole thing goes away. Watson getting a public win over Cal will quickly fix things. It doesn't take a genius to hold onto the guy who signed a 4 year extension 4 months ago. The problem is that it doesn't take a genius to be born into extreme wealth and Cal may be stupid enough and arrogant enough to take a stand on principles of racism and old money.

I think the tweet by the usually understated and stoic but yet influential Andre Johnson was ominous, so on this MLK Day gotta say if Watson is truly serious and committed to playing in the NFL in a different city and team than the Houston Texans I think he will get his way.
In the latest SI installment of the ongoing saga on Kirby many Texans'
front office employees reportedly have gotten into the habit of referring to Cal as "Tommy Boy", the character in the movie of the same name played by the late Chris Harley. At this point that comparison seems pretty appropriate.
This whole mess by the Texans organization, so badly handled is not a good look for the league and Black athletes, especially one of the most high profile young ones in the countries most popular sport have more power in these
tumultuous times than ever.

I've had distractions going on so I may not understand this right but if I read this correctly:

* trading Watson to a place he prefers, regardless of the haul received back, is "giving in" and should not be done because it sets a bad precedent for other star players.

* firing Easterby and hiring a head coach Watson wants is not "giving in". While we're at it, let's re-sign one of his butterfingered receivers just to placate Watson, but that's not "giving in" either.

Am I missing something?

For the record, I am seeing trade scenarios floated online for Watson to Jacksonville, the Jets, Carolina and Denver as well as Miami, with each sending their top draft pick to Houston as part of the package.

Are you missing something? Maybe the whole point.

I don't care about giving in or not giving in. I'm not sure why you would frame it that way. I am guessing our owner is worried about who gives in just like you are.

I care about trading the best player on our team in an unprecedented trade of a star young QB with a long contract. Anyone focused on anything else is an idiot.

I would get a new owner before I would trade a QB this good.

CBS is pushing a trade where Watson goes to the Jets for their #2 overall, a first-rounder is 2022, 2023 and an additional low-round pick next year.

Then they have the Oilers using #2 overall on Ohio State QB Justin Fields which would be completely stupid. Somebody want to tell me the last Ohio State QB who starred in the NFL. Go ahead, I'll wait.

If it were me, I might just sign Fitzmagic on a one-year deal rather than take a rookie QB just to watch him get killed. I'd rather draft Davonta Smith in that scenario or trade down for multiple firsts.

The East Coast media tom toms are banging the drum for a Watson-to-Jets trade.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/d...-trade-him-to/

They claim the Jets are Watson's personal favorite destination. I'd bet there are zero players on the Jets who think the Jets are their personal favorite destination. Certainly it's true by the way they perform on the field.

But, okay. Listen up, Jets. You want Deshaun? Here's what Houston's asking price should be:

FOUR first round selections in the next three years including the #2 overall this spring plus THREE second-round picks in the next five years. No discounts. Whomever is running the Oilers needs to publicly set the bar and tell them "here's your price".

Watch the New York media choke on that like a Cuomo nursing home patient.

Matthew Stafford is a slightly above averaged 32 year old QB, and he was just traded for Goff, two 1sts, and a 3rd. Jamal Adams got two 1sts after a trade demand and a big public fight and with the Jets. Every Watson deal suggested in the media is absurd. Watson is worth about 10Xs more than Adams (and Stafford). The media was so eager to fill space that they forgot QBs are worth about 50Xs their weight in gold (if Deshaun Watson was gold he'd only be worth about $5 million). I don't think there is a GM in the league who has the job security and power to offer the low end of what Watson is worth. Honestly you could trade all the picks in 3 consecutive drafts and you probably only approach what Watson is worth. Watson with an idiot like Bill O'Brien was winning playoff games about 55 weeks ago. He makes any team an instant playoff team and he makes any functional team a contender.

In finance, economics, etc and other areas involving money there's a concept used to convert future monetdary receipts and disbursements into
current or present values, and this principle more or less also applies to future NFL Draft picks.
According to reports the Stafford-Goff trade includes the Rams sending the Lions three draft picks but only the 3rd round pick is in this years Draft because the two first round picks are in the 2022 Draft and the 2023 Draft.
So what are those future years picks worth in todays Draft picks ? Some people discount future year picks a full round for each year in the future, so in todays terms some would say that those two first round picks are worth only a second and third round pick in 2021 values. But the most important point here is that Matthew Stafford is not fetching the Detroit Lions anything like two 2021 first round Draft picks in their trade with the Rams.

If you have a sub to The Athletic, they have a pretty good article where beat writers submit trade offers for DW4 and then they analyze them.

I won't copy/paste the entire article, but here is the link and the hypothetical trades...interestingly enough, the Broncos and Raiders "entered the group chat" yesterday...

https://theathletic.com/2359640/2021...offers-texans/