2009 Cap
 

According to the Keith cap page, we'll have roughly 29 mil? Is that for real? Are Wong, Davis etc (the last of CCs regime), finally off the books? I know our free agency luck has sucked but no one seems to excited; so I am puzzled why this thread wasn't started last Monday. First priority hopefully is Dunta, but after that what? Who is out there that could help?

Good suggestion of something to analyze.

of course from the 29 mil we need to resign several of our own FA, not just Dunta, and rookies, but it should be over 10 mil if desired, although if team decides it is a down economic year, could be go slowly on this. FA in general seem a second choice to building through draft.

some of important dates are:
February 19 Last day for NFL teams to use their franchise tag
February 27 Free agent signing period begins

some top FA
http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story?...o&confirm=true

here is a good list of FA by position
http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/featu...tion=RB&y=2009
and
http://www.nowpublic.com/sports/2009-nfl-free-agents

or here with some analysis
http://www.footballsfuture.com/freeagents.html

I think we can forget signing any of the top tier free agents. No way we use almost all our cap space on one player.

just wondering, would these guys fit in the budget and be helpful perhaps if available:
Nnamdi Asomugha CB Height: 6-2 Weight: 210 Age: 27 , currently Oakland
Karlos Dansby OLB Height: 6-4 Weight: 250 Age: 27, currently Arizona

I'm sure Asomugha would be helpful, but I'm thinking he's going to get a big time payday, much like Peppers will. That, or he'll be franchised.

Both of those guys will be franchised. They are their teams version of the Texans Dunta. Not way they let those guys get to free agency.

The Texans while they do have alot of cap room, but need to come to contract agreements with Owen Daniels, Dunta Robinson as well as extending Demeco. That will eat up some serious cap dollars. We will still have money to spend though.

I doubt you will see big splash free agents, instead we will fill in gaps like last year. They will get a deal done with Dunta. It will cost them more than the Reeves deal. Our CB's next year will be Dunta, Reeves, Fred and Molden.

As we work our way through the next two months of the offseason, I'm sure I'll offer more details on my thoughts on the front page of the site. For now though, I think Mike is right.

One other thought I have not seen discussed much anywhere... 2009 is the last capped year. This is very similar to the situation a few years ago before the CBA was extended, but I have heard very little via the media in terms of upcoming extension talks between the owners and the union. Perhaps this has quite a bit to do with the passing of Gene Upshaw.

Anyhoo, there were not any radical changes imposed with the last extension, but I wonder whether that will be the same after 2009. Regardless, I think it impacts how some teams handle free agency this offseason as some teams may look to structure UFA contracts.

Generally speaking, the Texans are in as good a position as ever to make whatever offseason moves they choose. That said, they are still probably somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of cap room (considering too that they do not have 53 players signed yet) as several other teams have done exceptionally well in managing their salary caps as well.

I'd love to add Asomugha or Dansby - both were franchised last year I think - but I don't think either will hit the open market. Dunta ought to be f-tagged if not re-signed. F-tags usually suck for the player but could really benefit Dunta if he proves to be fully recovered in 2009 (and avoids any new injury, of course, the rub for f-tagged players).

In addition to the guys Mike listed, don't forget that Matt Schaub's option could be exercised or renegotiated during the 2009 cap year. Also, that dead money from Wong, Domanick, etc. may be gone, but there may be new dead money from Weaver, Greenwood, Demps, and Green, to name a few.

The Texans have also avoided holdouts (mostly because they sucked with underperforming players), but that could change this offseason as well with cap implications. Slaton is worth more than he is paid. Pitts is entering a contract year on a Pro Bowl alternate season. Walter has outperformed his current deal and will be a UFA after 2009 as well. Kris Brown (signed thru 2009) has also earned an extension as well. I doubt any will holdout, but the ingredients for doing so are there, DeMeco and Daniels included.

Stephanie asked that I write something for her blog on chron.com... I did, but I posted it here too since I've been lagging on site updates through the holidays and my since-concluded vacation.

Towards the end of the thing I have a little more info on the state of the CBA negotiations, or lack thereof.

Keith,

Fantastic front page article. If you did not have a day job and this site, I would submit that you should write the Texans blog on the comical, with me as a co-writer. :D

seems a rookie cap might be a discussion item to prevent those exorbitant first round signing bonuses when unproven results.

Keith,

Good write-up. Your research and presentation definitely put the financial "state of the Texans" into perspective. Sadly though, I guess that means we can't just put together a "free agent wish list" and go out and buy whatever we want since we've pretty much moved away from the Casserly "blunders".

Since this is the "speculative" time of year, what does your gut tell you about the direction of the CBA. You've spent the time to get a lot closer to this topic than any of the rest of us so I appreciate your insight. Thanks, and Happy New Year!

Yeah, my day job pays me way too well to give it up. And sadly, my free time between my day job and my job as a husband and father has caused me to turn down a few 'fun' offers... I simply lack the time to give a blog like that the time it deserves. I would like to be more active with this site, and hopefully that will be the case in the offseason through the draft.

I'd be open to periodically posting guest articles for the site though if they were well-written and offered a new perspective on the team.

Changes to the rookie cap is #2 on the owners' wish list for a new CBA after restructuing the overall financials of the labor agreement.

I'm reminded of the popular rephrasing of Occam's razor in times like this where there seem to be so many possibilities of where this might go next. The bottom line is that too many teams are thriving and both sides have too much to lose in a work stoppage for something really wild and unforeseen to happen.

So while I expect this to get uglier than the last negotiation three years ago (with a more unified ownership and an eager new NFLPA director), ultimately I still think this will get resolved with the majority of the existing CBA, including the salary cap, in tact before March 2011, maybe even by March 2010 like Upshaw had hoped. Neither side is completely satisfied, but that's part of what makes it a compromise.

Someone pointed out that this was a comment in one of John McClain's blogs a few days ago.

I don't know who Larry is (anyone here?), but the response is interesting. John is mostly correct. He's right in that independent salary cap pages are almost always wrong. I say so myself on the page even. But they (ItB.com's and other amateur cap pages around the league) are more accurate than ever before.

One reason of course is that we understand the rules better, that helps. It also helps that there was a leak last spring that allowed several of us (myself included) to view all the details that seem to elude the media. Hopefully John and others will help us this spring in reporting (accurate) details of the new contracts signed.

I am not Larry. Plus I cannot even listen to the man on the radio let alone bring myself to read his blog regularly. I trust McClains knowledge, reporting skills, and investigation skills less than my 2 year olds.

McClain's entire response was more to discredit the poster and his sources. yes we understand the cap page here is off. Howver if you look at the cap page here on ITB and see the projected 3M under the capf or 2008, Keith is probably on the higher side rather than the lower side. Which means that the projected 30M for 2009 could really be 33M plus cuts. Also John pointed out that the team wouldnt guarantee 30M to a single player, of course they wont. They may spend it over 3-5 years but not in a single year.

I have no designs for a big FA spash this year, or any year for that matter. FA money is typically not worth it. Add in the facts that Keith has already pointed out about the CBA and the FA market and signings could be rather odd this offseason. Some players will attempt to lock in and some will want good payoffs quick in hopes of an uncapped season. It will really depend on how greedy and selfish they are.

I think this is one reason why I am and have been so fascinated by Dunta's contract situation. Given his injury and inconclusive 2008 performance (by his own pre-injury standards), I had been thinking that the F-tag really might be the best way to go.

But if that means then trying to negotiate with Robinson's agent in an uncapped year after he (optimistically) has justified his full return to pre-injury form, then that would cost the team a whole heck of a lot more by using the F-tag.

It'd be a gamble by Robinson to come to the table next month asking for the moon knowing the F-tag might be the consequence, but it would certainly be a calculated one.

Owen Daniels is in a slightly similar position, different since he is a RFA and coming off his best season ever, injury-free. And really, same question can be applied for all those other '09 UFAs like DeMeco Ryans... do you pay them now under the current cap system when you have ample room to do so or do you wait until next year and follow the Domanick Davis lesson of why pay now when you can pay later? But if you wait, then there may not be a cap, at least for one year and maybe more.

It is a philosophical question for the front office, and I am very interested to find out what path they choose. This one offseason could have huge ramifications on the future of this team well beyond what happens on the field in 2009.

My guess is to do it now if you can is the best way to go. History (of the NFL) shows that salaries are only going to go up. We have some young talented players that I'm sure McNair wants to keep around. The owners are supposedly a united front on the CBA this time around, but if things go uncapped I can't imagine one or two wouldn't go on spending spree (read Jones, Jerry and Synder, Dan). That's only going to make negotiations that much more difficult.

With Dunta's injury I'm very tempted to use the F-tag if negations stall, but hopefully it never comes to that. There's nothing to stop these guys from demanding a new contract and threatening holdouts if a things go uncapped and they see lesser players, at least in their minds, cashing in. Either way, guys like Owen, Demeco, and Dunta are too important to not lock in.

I'll ignore the financials for the moment and answer the question. I never really like to sign the highest salaries anyway.

1. Cut Ahman Green and look to draft Slaton's counterpart.
2. Cut Anthony Weaver and sign Jovan Haye from Tampa Bay.
3. Cut Morlon Greenwood and go after Jonathan Vilma from New Orleans. If he's too expensive - get another LB in the draft.
4. Cut Will Demps and inquire about the services of Sean Jones from Cleveland. Otherwise we keep our fingers crossed and hope that Mays or Moore is available when we pick.
5. Jason Brown can play RG or OC from the Ravens and I would look at his price tag closely.

I don't know Jason Brown, but if he isn't a ZBS kind of guy I don't see us going after him. The same goes for any bruiser type running backs in the draft. I definately expect us to draft a running back, but it could easily be another Slaton type. Also, we don't save much by cutting Weaver so I expect him to stay. I expect Green, Greenwood and Demps to be history.

Just a couple points:
1) All teams have some sort of zone-blocking in their offenses, so the skill itself doesn't bother me as much as the coordination with other linemen.
2) No idea of his agility, but Brown's a big boy (6'3", 320lbs). Myers certainly had trouble holding the point of attack at times this season, and with Henderson/Haynesworth in the division (at least for now), it's something to think about.
3) Myers is cheap (4yrs, $11MM, $3MM bonus), durable, and has 16 games of experience with the same linemen.

Brown could also play RG.

As for his agility...he was in the 2005 draft class. At the Combine his numbers were.....

1.85 - 10 yard split
4.52 - Shuttle
7.72 - Cone

If you compare those numbers to Chester Pitts' Combine of the following:

1.84 - 10 yard
4.81 - Shuttle
7.84 - Cone

then, you might think he could do a decent job along the Offensive line in a ZBS under Gibbs.

Just to show that the Texans' 2009 cap room is nothing special, here's a clip from Adam Schefter's blog on today's playoff teams:
http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/01/10/satu...hape-for-2009/

A couple names mentioned though that might be interesting if the Texans wanted to spend big this offseason.

Yeah, here's to hoping that Carolina tags Gross over Peppers.

Imagine a line with Peppers and Mario...then pick up Mays or Moore in the draft and we might have ourselves a decent D

Not to start an argument, but Gibbs is ZBS all the way. I know lots of teams use some ZBS but Gibbs has been quoted as saying going hybrid is a mistake. In other words, you MUST only go after linemen who are very quick and backs who are quick, have great vision, and don't like dancing around. If you look at the three players we added to the offense last year (Slaton, Brown, and Myers), they describe to a T what Gibbs is looking for, though Gibbs obviously would like a center with more core strength. If Jason Brown doesn't fit Gibbs' system, then he won't be here.

According to Lombardi, Carolina is nowhere close to a contract with Peppers and will almost assuredly use the tag on him.

More info on the last capped year and the potential of an uncapped year for those interested. In addition to noting some key rule changes to keep in mind, I found this angle I sorta alluded to in an earlier article:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/...ey-matters-20/

The idea that some teams (mostly smaller market teams) spent so closely to the cap floor is evidence of a severe crack in the uniformity of the ownership. Worse still, I fear if something doesn't change with the new CBA, the NFL will lose some more of what makes it special in terms of trying to keep the field level between large market and small market teams.

First, welcome. Not sure why you post in bold, it really isn't necessary.

As for what will happen should the cap return after an uncapped year, I have no idea other than I'm sure something will be considered in negotiations. It's been so long since the league first had a salary cap (1994), that I don't remember exactly how Year One went. It was different then though, because the cap came as a sort of negotiating item to even having free agency as I remember it, i.e. teams wrote contracts in '93 knowing that the cap was coming the next year (and even then some teams didn't know how to manage it, hence all the cap-strapped teams in the late 90s and early 00s).

The last time the CBA was extended (2006) would have been relatively equivalent to having it extended again during the first week of March 2009, which is to say that the extension happened just before the league opened the new year that would have been the last capped year.

Given the NFLPA still doesn't even have a director, I think it's a safe assumption that we'll be entering unfamiliar territory when free agency opens in another six weeks. That said, I imagine the owners will look to continue (or re-introduce) the cap at some point, and as such, I think spending will for the most part remain somewhat in line as if the cap were still in place. Granted, there will be some major exceptions, but in the scheme of things, there are probably far fewer 'haves' than 'have nots'.

Both sides have said that if an uncapped year were to happen then it is possible they may never go back. The players definatly wouldnt want to, but unless FA is addressed in the new agreement without a cap the owners can hold it over the players head to put a cap back in. It is kinda pointless to go uncapped and have no FA for the players.

From ESPN.com's AFC South blog:
It differs from the ItB.com '09 cap page, but without more info from the blog, it's difficult to determine where the variances lie. It could be an interpretation issue, it could be something I'm missing.

As always, if anyone has input into the figures I have here, let me know. The #s were solid as of 10 months ago, so I can't imagine I'm too far off, but things can change, especially if something slipped the media.

Shadowy capologist AdamJT13 posted at KFFL what teams used the Philly Loophole to increase their 2009 cap space and by how much. Take the link to read it in full detail (27 of the 32 teams took advantage of the loophole this year).

Pertinent to the Texans is this:
So, this is interesting for a couple reasons.
(1) The Texans finished the 2008 season somwhere shy of $3 million in available space (last credible figure I seem to remember having was around $2.41 million, yes the ItB.com page is a little out of date in that regard). The # above forwarded to 2009 shows a minimum of available space left in 2008.
(2) It obviously reflects some additional purchasing power in 2009, but it ranks around 21st if I counted down correctly, so please hold your cartwheels.
(3) In order to forward this sum, the Texans had to of renegotiated a contract with Brisiel... something which not surprisingly eluded our local media. Basically the team inserted a junk incentive very late in the season into Brisiel's contract; the extent to which the rest of his contract was altered is at this time unknown.

Brisiel had been scheduled to become a ERFA this offseason. The NFLPA currently shows him under contract for 2009 at a minimum base salary ($460k) for someone with his # of years. Other similarly situated players, like Earl Cochran, don't appear to have been tendered yet.

A few sites are trying to pull together cap data for all teams as they look ahead to the opening of the UFA signing window on 2/27. AsktheCommish is one such site, and like our cap page here, they acknowledge that the data is unofficial and compiled largely from NFLPA and "various media sources" (as I'm guessing USAToday and even ItB.com might qualify).

Anyhoo, the Texans rank 10th on this list with the most available cap room. I've seen another adjusted for the forwarded cap space from 2008 that ranks the team around 11th.

http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/numbers.asp

Most striking to me is that the Cardinals, defending NFC champs, are 2nd with roughly $41 million available. The Titans are 5th.

So while 11th puts the Texans closer to the middle of the pack than way out in front, it does represent the team's ability to re-sign all they players they choose. It also affords them an opportunity to take a hard look at other UFAs as well.

We are nearing the end of the calm here (if you discount the Outside the Lines thriller)... in another two weeks or so, we're going to be busting with some news.

As long as we can afford to resign Dunta, Demeco, and Daniels, I am good.

I've updated the 2009 salary cap page to reflect some recent changes. I'm in a rush at the moment, but I'll probably write up something here later about key points, plus I plan to do one final clean-up of the 2008 cap page later tonight as well.

http://www.inthebullseye.com/cap2009.html

Some good news on the ItB.com '09 cap estimate....

PFT.com seems to think they have solid info on all 32 teams' 2009 cap expenditures. For the Texans, they estimate $101 million (or about $22-23 million available) as of yesterday. I wish they would have reported this number out another couple of digits.

Regardless, since I would guess that this figure does not include the recently announced cuts of Green and Greenwood, that would lower the cap committments by $4.868 million for Greenwood and (roughly) $5 million for Green, for a total of about $10 million...

Meaning, with the PFT figure adjusted down to roughly $91 million, this falls very closely in line with the $91.4 million I have now on the ItB.com cap page.

Thanks again Keith for all this detail work and update to the 2009 cap nos.

I was wondering, the guys down on bottom of payscale , that were perhaps on practice squad, if they are cut, does that stay on cap or go away?

And just for discussion, if Demps were cut how much cap would that save?

For any players cut, the dead money remains. Cap-wise, a few of them don't really get a true signing bonus, sometimes just the standard workout bonuses. I don't detail each of these when they get cut, but I do keep track of them to sum their measly bonuses... they often add up to a couple hundred thousand or so.

As for Demps, if he were cut, the team would save the base salary of $2.35 million. The remaining bonus amortization for the final year of his contract would become $500k in dead money.

I think Demps (and possibly Weaver) haven't been cut yet because the team still feels like there's potential for him. With $30 million or so in cap room, there is no rush to move Demps since that base salary isn't guaranteed until Week 1. Might as well keep him through camp, especially since he (a) performed so well down the stretch in '07 and (b) might be worth keeping if the team needs bodies. Remember that C.C. Brown and Eugene Wilson are UFAs, at least at the moment.

A couple things, mostly about Mario...
- It's official. Mario Williams is a badass. His performance to date has apparently allowed his contract to trigger a couple key functions, namely his ability to void the final two years (2010 and 2011). Fear not, per the original agreement, the Texans exercised the buyback option, but only at supercharged base salaries of $9.4 million and $13.6 million, respectively.

The buyback bonus is $8.5 million, and per my notes from a year ago, it was supposed to have been payable within two equal installments, the first on 3/15/2010 and the second one year later. Since it appears as though the option has already been bought back, I'm a little unclear as to whether this affects the 2009 cap right now. I don't think it does, which would be good if 2010 remains an uncapped year. Mario's cap figure will be ginormous in 2010 and 2011 if there is a salary cap.

- Chris Brown is still on the roster. I know, I'm surprised, too. He finished the 2008 season on IR, and apparently there was no injury settlement from what I can tell. Maybe he'll take care of the bug problem in the Reliant Stadium basement until the payroll glitch gets fixed.

Even though 2010 is looking like an uncapped year, I still intend to publish a 2010 cap page on the site when I get some time to put one together, hopefully in the next day or two. In spite of Williams' huge cap figure, the available cap space might have grown another $10 million or so. Given the # of teams with literally dozens of millions of cap room this year, I think it is a little easier to see why some owners think the players' piece of the pie is getting harder to stomach. Specific to the Texans... they have very little reason to "make it happen" when it comes to re-signing the UFAs and RFAs they want around (Dunta, Owen) and other key players (DeMeco, Pitts, Walter, K. Brown).

Keith- Wouldn't it make sense to sign Mario to a long term extension...maybe after this year, to spread out the cap hit?

You'd have to think he'd have Jared Allen/(new)Julius Peppers money coming to him. Regardless, I can't imagine an argument against signing him long term.

You gotta pay to have one of the best DE in the league.

Well, cap hit may be irrelevant after this year. And an extension would mean more up front bonus money (probably in excess of the base salary). I think to avoid some uncapped year rules in '09/'10, they would probably wait until early 2011 or so to do this.