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-   -   Official Wild Card Playoff Round - Texans vs. Bills Game Thread, 1/4/2020 (http://inthebullseye.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2293)

Arky 01-01-2020 03:25 PM

Official Wild Card Playoff Round - Texans vs. Bills Game Thread, 1/4/2020
 
The 10-6 Houston Texans will host the 10-6 Buffalo Bills this Saturday in a late afternoon game at NRG stadium in round 1 (wildcard round) of the playoffs. Both teams are coming off a week of taking it easy as the Texans fell to the Tennessee Titans at home 35-14 and the Bills fell to the NY Jets 13-6 at home.

There are 20 other teams sitting at home so if the Texans can win, they can advance to the final 8 (divisional round). A win there and they would advance to the final 4 (conference championship round) - a place they've never been before in their somewhat short history. But first things first...

The Bills defense is rated #3 (yds/game) behind the Patriots and 49'ers. The Texans defense is rated #28 which is bottom 5. The Texans, however, have the better offense statistically. The Bills were knocked out in the wild card round in 2017 but before that, you have to go back to 1999 for their last playoff appearance. The Texans have made the playoffs 4 of the last 5 years so, give the edge to the Texans for playoff experience.

It would be nice for the Texans to have relatively clean game that is not marred by an excess of turnovers, coaching blunders or defensive lapses. Well, that's probably not going to happen but I still see it:

Texans 17, Bills 13

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TV = ABC/ESPN (channel 13 local), 3:35 pm CST, Saturday, 1/4/2020

Announcers = (probably) Joe Tessitore, Booger McFarland (talk to me, Booger!)

The line = (mostly) Texans by 2½

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Other playoff games:

CBS (Saturday night) = Tennessee @ New England, 7:15 PM CST

FOX (Sunday early) = Minnesota @ New Orleans, 12:05 PM CST

NBC (Sunday late) = Seattle @ Philadelphia, 3:40 PM

Arky 01-01-2020 03:51 PM

Team records ATS (against the spread):

Texans = 7-8-1

Bills = 9-6-1

-----------------------------------------

Walterfootball likes the bet-against 1st time QB in the playoffs angle. He provides:

Quote:

To sum it up:

Home favorites: 5-16 ATS, 8-13 SU
Home underdogs: 2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 6-9 ATS, 3-12 SU

Combined Record: 14-32-1 ATS, 15-32 SU

Fading first-time playoff quarterbacks allowed you to go 3-1 against the spread last year, with the only loss coming in the Chiefs-Colts divisional-round game. Call me crazy, but Allen is no Patrick Mahomes.
He likes the Texans to win and cover.

HPF Bob 01-01-2020 06:31 PM

Texans are 3-3 in common opponents while Buffalo is 2-3. A big chunk of that stat is that Buffalo was 0-2 against New England, whom we beat, while Houston split with Tennessee, whom they beat. However, the loss to Tennessee comes with an asterisk as Houston certainly wasn't playing their best players.

Buffalo, like the Pats, benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule - 4 games against the Jets and Dolphins plus games against Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Washington and the Giants. That should be 9-0 right there. The Bills went 7-2.

Their "good wins" were against Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Dallas, two of which also missed the playoffs - so they are 1-4 against playoff teams.

Houston did better against an arguably tougher schedule. The "easy" part were 4 games against the Jags and Colts, followed by Atlanta, Carolina, LA Chargers, Oakland and Denver. The Texans went 6-3. Their "good wins" were against Tennessee, Kansas City, New England and Tampa Bay - of which Tampa Bay missed the playoffs. The Texans are 3-3 against playoff teams, again with the asterisk for the Week 17 game.

I think by schedule analysis, Houston is the better team. Whether it shows on Saturday is another matter.

HPF Bob 01-01-2020 06:46 PM

From Tuesday's practices, according to Rotowire:

* J.J. Watt (pectoral) is cleared for play but not expected to play every defensive snap. It would not surprise me if he is brought in just for obvious passing downs.

* Jahleel Addae (achilles) held back in practice but expects to be ready.

* Jonathan Joseph (hamstring) was limited in practice. He's a veteran so light practices shouldn't be a sign he won't be ready.

* Bradley Roby (hamstring) was limited in practice. Like Joseph, he won't need much to get ready.

* Laremy Tunsil (ankle) was limited in practice. Roderick Johnson took snaps as his backup.

* Will Fuller V (groin) was limited in practice. Likely to be listed as questionable and a game time decision.

* Kenny Stills (knee) was limited in practice. Likely listed as questionable and a game time decision.

* Jordan Thomas (illness) missed Wednesday's practice. No details.

Bills appear relatively healthy with the biggest concern being their right tackle who was injured in the loss to the Jets.

HPF Bob 01-04-2020 11:27 AM

Fatboy tweets Fuller V is a scratch. :(

chuck 01-04-2020 04:40 PM

All of you necks seriously thought the Nexans were going to win? lmao

Arky 01-04-2020 04:42 PM

Gametime!

Texans sporting the all-blues...

Texans kickoff to the Bills. Touchback. Bills to start at their 25.

Bills waste no time. Allen has a 42-yard run and then they use a halfback pass back to the QB for 16-yard TD.

Bills 7, Texans 0

11:41 left in the 1st qtr.

Way to go defense! :eek::rolleyes:

Arky 01-04-2020 04:53 PM

Texans get in to Bills territory but a missed PI on Hop is being challenged....

Likely not going to get overturned... Ball at the Bill's 37.

Play stands. Texans to punt.

Punt is fair caught at the 10-yard line. Bill's ball.

7:02 left in the 1st qtr.

Arky 01-04-2020 05:13 PM

1st qtr ends with the Bills with the ball at their 16 facing 2nd and 3.

Texans had a couple of drives into Bill's territory that ended with punts.

Still:

Bills 7, Texans 0

Keith 01-04-2020 05:13 PM

Stupid challenge by O'Brien.

Roby and Watt each had possible pick sixes go through their hands.

Twice drove into Bills territory and punted.

Arky 01-04-2020 05:25 PM

Bills have to settle for a FG after driving from their 9 yard line.

Hauschka is good from 40.

Bills 10, Texans 0

10:47 left in the half.

Big Texas 01-04-2020 05:33 PM

Pathetic so far...

But its to be expected...

I could care less about JJo not playing but Will Fuller is starting to show is not a very tough kid

Arky 01-04-2020 05:36 PM

Texans with another punt have the Bill's backed up to their own 4 with 5:45 left in the half.

Arky 01-04-2020 05:54 PM

Bills drive all the way down from the their own 4 yard line, using clock but have to settle for another Hauschka 40-yard FG.

Bills 13, Texans 0

-------------------------------------

Texans take the squib kickoff and time runs out.

Halftime.

Arky 01-04-2020 05:58 PM

Halftime stats:

1st downs: Texans 4, Bills 13

Total yards: Texans 81, Bills 247

TOP: Texans 13:11, Bills 16:49

Passing yards: Texans 39, Bills 147

Rushing yards: Texans 42, Bills 100

3rd down efficiency: Texans 3/6, Bills 5/8

No turnovers by either team. Penalties, kinda even...

chuck 01-04-2020 06:01 PM

Anyone who has watched BOB coach in the playoffs should have been able to foresee this halftime result.

Also, anyone who has watched the Bills play this season

Big Texas 01-04-2020 06:13 PM

Yep...this one is ALL on the coaching staff. I have no idea what the plan is on offense...

Arky 01-04-2020 06:16 PM

Texans take the 2nd half kickoff and don't do much. Punt it away.

Bills have the ball at their 36.

13:36 left in the 3rd qtr.

Watson has no time, has had some bad throws and receivers aren't getting open..... credit goes to the Bill's defense.

chuck 01-04-2020 06:16 PM

Bryan Anger touches: 4

DeAndre Hopkins touches: 0

Bills sacks: 5

Texans sacks: 0

Josh Allen rushing yards: 71

Texans total yards: 92

The difference in the quality of the game plans could not be more stark.

Arky 01-04-2020 06:25 PM

Hop fumbles after catching his first pass and the Bills recover. Bills with the ball at the Texan 38.

9:53 left in the 3rd qtr.

Arky 01-04-2020 06:31 PM

Bills convert the turnover into a Hauschka 38-yard FG.

Bills 16, Texans 0

6:02 left in the 3rd qtr...

Arky 01-04-2020 06:42 PM

Watson keeps for 20 and dives for the goal line. Ruled a TD, play is under review..... Awesome effort, regardless....

Play stands as called.

Texans go for 2 and Watson keeps again and reaches for the 2 pts, good!

Bills 16, Texans 8

1:33 left in the 3rd qtr.

Arky 01-04-2020 06:51 PM

Oooh, Texans get a turnover. Merci with the strip, Martin with the recovery.

Texans with the ball at midfield with about 14 minutes left in the game.

Arky 01-04-2020 06:55 PM

Texans stall out and Fairbairn is good from 41.

Bills 16, Texans 11

10:55 left in the game.

Arky 01-04-2020 07:01 PM

Bills go 3-and-out and will punt it away.

Texans fair catch at their 26.

9:29 left in the game.

Arky 01-04-2020 07:11 PM

Thanks to a 41-yard deep ball to Hop, the Texans drive on down the field.

Watson passes to Mr. Hyde for the last 5 yards!

Texans going for 2.....

Watson hits Hop on the slant for the conversion!

Texans 19, Bills 16

4:37 left in the game.

Arky 01-04-2020 07:20 PM

Bills facing 3rd and 13 at the Texan 28 at the 2 minute mark.

Can the Texans stop them - force them into a FG attempt?

Arky 01-04-2020 07:25 PM

Flags on the Bills back them up and force them into going for it on 4th and 27 at the Texan 42.

Martin with the sack!

Texans takeover on downs at the Bill's 39!

1:35 left in the game.

Bills with all 3 timeouts.

Arky 01-04-2020 07:30 PM

Bills burn all 3 timeouts as the Texans try to run for a clinching 1st down.

Texans facing 4th and 1 and going for it.

Watson sneaks on 4th and 1 and falls short.

Bill's ball with 1:16 left in the game.

Arky 01-04-2020 07:43 PM

Bills get a 1st down at the Texan 39 with 44 seconds left.

1st down pass goes inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Roby with the almost INT on 2nd down. 3rd and 10 coming up.

Pass to Beasley gets about 9 or 10... play is under review.....

Looks a little short on replay.....

Bills going for the FG....

Refs give the Bills a 1st down.

Bills spike the ball after the review. 20 seconds left in the game. Bills have 2nd and 10 coming up.

Texans use a timeout.

Allen tries a deep ball but it goes inc.

On 3rd and 10, pass into the end zone goes inc.

Hauschka is on for 47-yard FG attempt with 10 seconds left.

Texans use their last timeout.

FG attempt is good. Tie game. 5 seconds left and probably heading to OT.

Texans 19, Bills 19

Arky 01-04-2020 07:47 PM

Texans win the OT toss and will receive.

Arky 01-04-2020 07:52 PM

False start on Tunsil makes it 1st and 15.

Watson hits Hop for 10.

Hyde for about 2. Brings up 3rd and 3.

Oy, Watson starts to run and pulls up but Fell drops it, inc.

Texans have to punt.

Punt is fair caught at the Bill's 29. Bill's ball.

Need a stand defense....

barrett 01-04-2020 07:53 PM

Neither team wants to win. This is an embarrassment.

Arky 01-04-2020 08:01 PM

Allen loses 2 on 1st down.

Deep ball is knocked away, inc. 3rd and 12 coming up.

Oy, Hargreaves misses the tackle and the Bills convert 1st and 10 at their 42.

Pass to Brown for no gain.

Bills use a timeout.

Allen pressured, throws inc. 3rd and 9 coming up.

Jeez, pass to Singletary gets 14 and the 1st down.

Allen tries a sweep right but gets tackled by Cunningham for no gain.

Pass to Beasley off the mark, inc. 3rd and 9 coming up.

Allen keeps for 4 but flag on the play.... Blindside block backs it up 15 yards.

Pass goes inc. Bills will have to punt on 4th and 24.

9:14 left in OT.

HPF Bob 01-04-2020 08:02 PM

The Texans had this game won in regulation. 4th and 1, no Buffalo timeouts left at the Buffalo 31. Go for the 48-yd FG that practically ices the game?

NOOOOOOO! Coach O'Shithead decides to run a sneak against the #1 run defense in the NFL when everybody knows exactly what play is coming and it gets stuffed! If the Texans lose this, that's exactly the play that did it.

HPF Bob 01-04-2020 08:08 PM

Since this is the playoffs, there's technically no "time" left in OT. They keep playing until there's a winner, even if it takes until 3 a.m. They use quarters but they're meaningless.

Arky 01-04-2020 08:14 PM

Punt rolls dead at the Texan 17. Texan's ball.

Pass to Hop gets about 10....

Hyde for 1.

Oy, Watson gets sacked. Brings up 3rd and 18.

Dump to D Johnson get the 1st down! Play is under review.....

Looks like he got it....

6:07 left in OT. Ball at the Texans 37.

Watson keeps for 5.

Pass to Stills gets 10 and a 1st down at the Bill's 48.

Hyde for about 4.

On 2nd and 6, Watson almost sacked but wriggles loose and hits T Jones for big gainer! Ball all the way to the Bill's 10! 1st and goal! 3:23 left in OT.

Texans going for the FG. Fairbairn on for the 28-yarder.

FG is good! Texans advance!

Final score:

Texans 22, Bills 19

chuck 01-04-2020 08:14 PM

Go Titans.

I'm perfectly fine with their going for it on 4th down. That was the right call. Not the right play call, but the right call.

Arky 01-04-2020 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 49487)
Since this is the playoffs, there's technically no "time" left in OT. They keep playing until there's a winner, even if it takes until 3 a.m. They use quarters but they're meaningless.

Yes, I know, just posting the times for reference......

Nice win, eh?

Keith 01-04-2020 08:15 PM

34-yard reception to a man in a #34 jersey in Houston.


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