Official Texans vs. Jags Game Thread, 12/30/2018
 

The 10-5 Texans will be hosting the 5-10 Jaguars in their season finale in an early game Sunday at NRG stadium. The Texans are coming off a 32-30 road loss to the Eagles; the Jags are coming off a 17-7 road win over the Dolphins. QB Blake Bortles is expected to start for the Jags. Texans need a win to clinch AFC South and at least #3 seed in the playoffs.

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TV = CBS (channel 11 local), noon CST, Sunday, 12/30/2018

Announcers = Andrew Catalon, James Lofton

The line = Texans by 6½ to7

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Other Sunday viewing in the Houston area:

FOX (early) = Dallas @ NY Giants, Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis

CBS (late) = Cleveland @ Baltimore, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

FOX (late) = Philadelphia @ Washington, Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston

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Prime time:

SNF = Indianapolis @ Tennessee (NBC)

(note: No TNF or MNF this week)

Sean Pendergast - NFL Week 17: Jaguars-Texans — Four Things To Watch For:

More at link.

Injury reports say Lamar Miller will be back and the OL is healing (for whatever good that is). Demaryus is gone (maybe for good) but it's next man up. Would like to see Houston in more 2-TE sets since they are much healthier there and can stand to have some help blocking.

I'm really surprised at myself to say I hope Kareem Jackson sees more playing time. Is it me or does it seem Honey Badger is the guy trailing the opponent on every coverage breakdown? Let's see more Andre Hal.

Every AFC team has weaknesses but the Texans seem to lack a killer instinct. That's what I fear is their playoff destiny. It's like they still think Osweiler or Hoyer is under center. No doubt Watson has confidence but do the Texans believe in him?

I put a lot of that on OB. He's the one calling the shots. There have been 16, 17 and 19 point wins this year but most of the time, it is the Texans doing just enough to get by.... On the positive side, the Texans haven't really been "owned" by anyone this year - so far. Maybe the New England game; it was not as close as the score indicated.

I want to see more Vyncint Smith - he can be used as a Fuller-lite. More of the young TE's. I want to see what Buddy Howell can do at RB. When the running game isn't working, nothing like a short West Coast passing game to keep the chains moving but I just haven't seen much of that from the Texans this year....

With Lamar Miller back, D'Onta Foreman listed among the inactives today. Also, Johnathan Joseph listed inactive, which is kind of a bummer... but then again, ain't nobody scared of the Jaguars passing offense. Coutee predictably inactive, too.

Mike Tyson block in the back on Chark leads to a fumbled punt return by DeAndre Carter, 12:03 remaining in the 1st quarter. Ball at Texans' 9.

Texans hold the Jags to a FG after the terrible interference call that was recovered by the Jags. A guy has to have room to fair catch the ball - just not right.

Jags 3, Texans 0

10:08 left in the 1st qtr.

Texans defense stout again, Jaguars settle for 25-yard field goal.

Jaguars 3
Texans 0
10:08 1st quarter

Texans put a drive together and get denied at the goal line. Settle for the FG. Fairbairn good from 23.

Texans 3, Jags 3

5:20 left in the 1st qtr.

Jags cough up the Texan punt and the Texans recover. Pass interference on newcomer WR Steven Mitchell, Jr. sets up Texans at the Jag 10. 2nd and goal at the Jax 5 coming up as the 1st qtr ends.

Next play, Watson keeps for the 5 yard TD.

Texans 10, Jags 3

14:56 left in the half.

Steven Mitchell Jr. is the injury replacement for Demaryius Thomas. Did a great job drawing a DPI call on the Texans TD drive. Reportedly ran a 4.44 forty at his pro day. Combined with Vyncint Smith, some speed options to go opposite Hopkins.

Miller punches it in from 8 yards for the TD.

Texans 17, Jags 3

3:01 left in the half.

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Texans defense looks pissed off (good).

Watson running/keeping more than normal....

Halftime and the score remains:

Texans 17, Jags 3

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Pats 21, Jets 3

Panthers 23, Saints 0

An uneventful 3rd qtr.

Personal foul penalty by the Jags on a FG attempt leads another series of downs but ultimately another FG attempt. Fairbairn good from 24.

Texans 20, Jags 3

10:52 left in the game.

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NYG 25, Cowboys 21 (10:38 left)

Final score:

Texans 20, Jags 3

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Guess we expect to see Watson the Tailback next week..

Right because up to the very end Watson not just end the game but O'Briene is calling his number in rushing plays. O'Brien definitely dosen't believe in babying his QBs.
Anyway 11-5 after beginning 0-3 is actually pretty impressive.

Zierlein speculated that BOB was running Watson so much because he wants next week's opponent to have to spend time game planning that.

That suggests guile on OB's part.... :p

If memory serves, we should learn times and pairings sometime during the SNF game tonight.....

Early game on Saturday, in case there was any doubt at all.

During the game today CBS ran a graphic about how a team has gone last to first for 15 of the past 16 seasons. This year the Texans and Bears did it. They marvel over how this happens.

How it happens is the NFL openly doctors the schedule to make it happen. 13% of your schedule is determined by your divisional finish. So last year the Jags used the last place schedule to win a division and everyone declared them good. Then they played a first place schedule with the same roster and went 5-11. The NFL is a tiny sample size league and a few extra wins here or there change the whole tone of a season.

So the Texans got last place last year and because of that got to beat the Broncos and Browns (last place teams from a year ago). The Colts went 1-1 against the Raiders and Bengals. The Titans went 0-2 against the Ravens and Chargers. That means every team went 9-5 against their identical schedule and the division was handed to the Texans and the playoffs to the Colts via artificial parity.

It honestly amazes me that the NFL does this and everyone just accepts it. There is no way MLB would just say the Rangers got last so they get an extra 10 games against the Tigers and Orioles next year while the Astros play 10 extra against the Red Sox and Indians. But somehow the NFL sells parity through a doctored schedule and everyone just accepts it.

It's a good point about the scheduling. The Texans clearly benefited from an easy slate of opponents this season. Next season? They get the Patriots and Ravens on the schedule (while facing the rotation of division opponents from the AFC West and NFC South).

Early line = Texans by 2½ over the Colts.

Others:

Dallas by 2½ over Seattle

Baltimore 2½ to 3 over LAC

Chicago 5½ over Philly

If I were a betting man, and I'm not, thankfully, since I have more than enough problems as it is, but if I were a betting man, I would wong the shit out of those three 2.5 point dogs.

Road teams are typically bad plays in the playoffs but not necessarily the first round. Parlay all four road dogs and I'd bet you'd get 2-3 winners. Even if they lose the game, they could beat the spread.

Except Cleveland and Denver went 13-18-1 this year while Cincy and Oakland went 10-22, implying the Colts had an easier schedule than the Texans had.

At the beginning of each season, people print "strength of schedule" columns as to why Team X will be better and Team Y will collapse and it all looks like crap by the end of the year. You can't base your team's success on the previous year's results (except New England).

Personally, I love how they select opponents. It's like the Electoral College in that it's a little screwy but ultimately is the best and fairest option out there.

I remember going through almost 20 years of NFL schedules with the Cowboys and Raiders in their primes never playing a meaningful game against each other.

Screw that. I want to see everyone *have* to play everyone eventually and this guarantees you face every conference opponent at least once every three years and every non-conference opponent at least once every four years. Plus, it guarantees every division winner will be seeing four other division champs the following season each year.

Arky knows what I would do. Take the dogs (who I think are likely to win outright in each case), tease them up 6 points and parlay the three.

I have no problem with you liking the scheduling for being 'screwy'. I also have no big problem with the scheduling myself. I was pointing out the way the NFL and the media trumpet worst to first stories is disingenuous since the rules are made to create those stories.

But the idea that purposely giving some teams easier schedules is the fairest way to do things is absurd.

I also think it's hilarious that Frank Reich explained away his boneheaded move in the first game against us by saying he'd never play for a tie. And right now today if he'd taken the tie in that game he'd have won the division and be preparing for a home playoff game.

The media has pushed a narrative that has been picked up by 'aggressive' young coaches that going for it on 4th down is always good and not going is always cowardly. It's too bad there wasn't math that proved by win probability added and subtracted when a team should go for it...oh wait, there are tons of studies that quantify that...

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics...4th-down-study

The truth is that NFL coaches just don't trust math and the nerds who use math. Awesome. I hope Frank Reich is happy that always going for the win is the same as getting 2nd place.

Frank Reich looks like the mandolin player in a bluegrass band that exclusively covers Grateful Dead songs.

I'll agree with you about the disingenuous part. Is that the League trumpeting this point or merely See-BS? It is generally in the NFL's best interest to see that there's a competitive balance among all members so the bad teams are given slight advantages here and there.

Giving bad teams easier schedules is no more unfair than giving the worst teams earlier spots in the draft order. The Patriots prove the point that schedule alone can't negate the difference between good teams and bad.

Since NFL teams don't have a 31-game schedule, you can't draw a schedule that is totally fair. One team is always going to have an unfair advantage. Therefore, isn't it more sporting to give the bad teams the unfair benefit?

You cannot make the schedule the same for all 32 teams without a 31 game schedule, but you can make it the same for each team competing inside of a division (what the other major sport do).

As for the Patriots, they prove the point partly through excellence that trumps an unbalanced playing field and partly through competing in the worst division in football throughout their run.

Looking great so far.

I think all four road teams won ATS unless Dallas was less than a two-point favorite. Imagine if that Bears game had the spread riding on that last kick.

Yep. I hit Chargers +130 and Philly +218 in a two team doggy parlay yesterday for a payout of 6.31:1 (a $10 bet would have won $63.14). That was in my bet points Sportsbook I play at. Not real money, but bet points that can be accumulated. Get enough and you can swap the bet points in for gift cards..... Can't say I enjoyed winning that one, though (that poor Chicago kicker!).

Long shot doggy parlays are one of the things the books fear most. Most people can't handle the constant losing. But.....you only have to hit 10% of the time and you can still make money. It's what I do during baseball season. I bet the numbers, not the teams....

Teams that had the bye week are 2-0 (2-0 ATS) so far on divisional weekend. This suggests that the Pats and Saints should win today although I'd give the Chargers a punchers chance... Earning the bye pays dividends and maybe the Texans can get there one day.....

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Colts kinda came out of nowhere this year. They fell to earth against KC, but they are young so seems they will be the team to beat in the AFC South for many years to come....

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For a team that had no picks in the first two rounds of the draft, the Texans got excellent production this year from the players they did pick up. Let's hope they can keep it rolling with a 1 and two 2's this year.....

Home Field appears to be king in the conference championship round too. Patriot fans are up in arms about Clete Blakeman being named referee for the KC game. Blakeman is the guy who fingered the Patriots and began Deflategate. The Rams are also unhappy about the league's choice of referee for their game against the Saints since their record with him at the whistle is abysmal.

Watch for those phantom flags in the final eight minutes.