The first 17 picks Saturday.
 

I think we are in for a interesting ride on Saturday. With our worst ever draft position, it is much harder to try to predict who our selection will be.

I'm not going to even try to predict who we will take. I never thought Omobi would fall to us last year, so will DRC be this years Omobi? Or will it be Stewart? Buckle up. This is going to be an interesting day.

I think the most intriguing thing for me will be whether the team selects a running back in the first three rounds, especially the first round. With three decent options - McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall - I'm not sure all will be gone by #18.

Just how comfortable is the team going into the season with Ahman, Brown, Walker, and Taylor?

I would pee on myself if Mendenhall or Stewart were there. That should solve our RB problem. I really like Mendenhall. I would have to take him but I do not think he will be there. I'm not convinced that the toe problem is going to drop Stewart as much as some position will have a run on them (CB or OT).

If they are there, I wonder if that spot then becomes prime trade bait?

Mcfadden will be gone, but Mendenhall/Stewart are not sloppy seconds by any means. I think Smith and Kubiak are smart enough and will not fall into the trap of "we can get a back anytime" if those two guys are there.

My "grassy knoll" theory rest with Alex Gibbs. He's brought out of retirement (without any long term commitment) to coach the offensive line, in the ZBS he installed at Denver, while working for our current OC dad, who happened to have our head coach on that staff. To this end, I think they will go and solidify the OL for Shanny Jr. and keep Kubes (and Smith) investment in Schuab from getting killed.
I don't see us using our pick for a RB at #18, especially after the signing of "oft injuried" Chris Brown, Green at 100+/- percent, Taylor back, and Walker showing some skills towards the end of last season.
My uneducated guess, is the Texan will pick an OT with the pick and quite the "doomsayer's". Spencer's been out for 2 years and still question's remain if he'll be ready by training camp. Salammi is a decent backup but, not the long term answer.
Only problem with this rambling??? Whose on the board when we're on the clock.

Now, you may return to your regulary scheduled message board...

I agree with you that OL is needed, I just do not think any of the first round OT's will be there when we draft. Jake will be long gone, and Otah, Williams and Albert will be gone. I think they would love to get one of those three, but OT's are coveted.

Maybe they can unearth a Winston/Spencer replay in round three or four.

There are a lot of a ways that I can see myself being very happy with this pick.

• If a Ryan Clady or Chris Williams fell to us
• If DRC or McKelvin fell to us
• If Keith Rivers fell to us
• If Derrick Harvey fell to us. Or, in a true wildest dream scenario, if Sedrick Ellis fell to us.
• If we grabbed Kenny Phillips. That guy is going to be a star. And he might be the only worthwhile safety in the draft.

I also like a bunch of running backs and offensive tackles in this draft - one of the rare times that some of my favorite positions in a draft match up with our needs. I'm not terribly crazy about McFadden (although I'm sure there's no chance in hell we'd ever get to make that choice anyway), but RBs I'd have no problems if we picked up at some point in the draft include Stewart, Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Steve Slaton, and Matt Forte. For OT, I think Sam Baker is pretty underrated and would be ecstatic if we could get him in the third. Others I'm interested in would be the already mentioned Clady and Williams, Duane Brown, Anthony Collins, and Oniel Cousins. I like Albert, but as a G and I'm sure he'll be gone before us anyway.

i actually like felix jones better than stewart, and maybe as much as mendenhall.

I have my hoped for picks: Williams, Clady, Albert, McKelvin, DRC, Mendenhall.
My oh no picks: Sweed, Devon Thomas, Harvey, Balmer, Merling or any QB in the 1st.
My outside the box 1st rounder: Mayo, Rivers, or Hardy.

what is the bigger potential crisis? Going into the season with Bennett as your best cornerback (healthy) may be a recipe for disaster in '08

I definitely agree with this but how effective can a rookie CB be? Assuming DRC and McKelvin are off the board, would a Jenkins or a Cason make that much difference over a more seasoned, lesser talent like Fletcher?

I also like Godfrey & Chevis Jackson should be there in 3rd. I have to say WIlliams then Stewart if avail @ 18. I really like Williams at #18 then in 2nd (Sage) Forte or J. Charles(should be gone)and CB in 3rd as stated. Tyvon Jackson in 4th CB/FS/KR with sub 4.4 I believe. In 5th I'd go the DT from Texas Tech (?) with emotional problems) or even Darnell Terrell Cb/FS with decent speed and size.

Dunta was effective as a rookie, and he was drafted at #10. Last year, once Fred "learned how to prepare and practice" like a pro, (per Kubes) he played OK. Yes, he made mistakes, but he was far from terrible.

No matter how we slice it, we need three good CB's at a minimum. As we sit today, we have Fred and Reeves. We need at least one more to go with them and then add Dunta in there, but who knows what we will get from him this year. If he comes back after being on the PUP list and plays decent, then that is a bonus as he continues to heal.

I have a low opinion of Fletcher and I'm not sure he is even a good nickel back...if you are building for the future then why take the rookie CB next season if you are using that logic. Take a solid cb now and you have Dunta, Bennett and a high pick CB as your core cornerbacks in '09.

I understand that a rookie CB can be effective. But, what I'm asking is, would a rookie CB not named DRC or McKelvin change the fact that the best CB on the field is Fred Bennett? In other words, in the short term, would drafting Mike Jenkins really be any more beneficial to us than, say, Terrance Wheatley? They'll both end up playing nickel back for the majority of the season, so I don't see where there's much of a difference in impact there.

OTOH, if Jonathan Stewart or Rashard Mendenhall is drafted it easily plausible that they're starting (or primary back-up to AG if he's still around) from day one.

I'm not advocating a RB only stance in round one. I'm simply saying that the "crisis" at CB might not be solved even if we do draft a CB in the first.

[QUOTE=nero THE zero;83]I understand that a rookie CB can be effective. But, what I'm asking is, would a rookie CB not named DRC or McKelvin change the fact that the best CB on the field is Fred Bennett? They'll both end up playing nickel back for the majority of the season, so I don't see where there's much of a difference in impact there.
QUOTE]

I think we are splitting hairs here. We need a future LT, corner and RB. How and when we get them is irrelevant, we just need to get them.

Vinny's statement has me thinking CB is not the top pick.

Do I really want a 1st rounder to be my nickle?

If Dunta comes back, and Bennett is the real deal, than I wasted a 1st rounder on a back up.

If I go DB in the 3rd or 4th, Patrick Lee, Charles Goodfrey, Chevis Jackson type player and get him plenty of reps in training camp, did I spend my pick more wisely? I believe so...

[QUOTE=Mike;85]I agree.

I just don't think it'd be prudent (assuming the Texans have Stewart rated ahead of Jenkins) to reach for Mike Jenkins if Jonathan Stewart is there because our need at CB is "greater than" our need at RB.

Ultimately I think we need to either (a)trade down or (b) take the best CB, LT, RB available at pick number 18.

not if they all turn into Faggins and Fletcher....generally, all you get in the later rounds is more of the same kind of player that is good enough to make a bad team but probably not good enough to be a solid nickel back anywhere else.

What normal playoff team has a nickle back that was drafted in the 1st, and the starting CBs both under 28 years of age? Not sure I have seen that mix on any team but the Colts who never have the cap room to keep most of the LBs or CBs after their rookie contracts.

I'm thinking Bennett eventually becomes your nickel back with two first round talents as your starters. If Bennett proves he can start with Dunta and (fill in the blank)...well, thats a good problem. Much better than rolling into the season with Bennett as your best cornerback and hoping he is a NFL starter long term with Kukla Fran and Ollie behind him with Dunta on the bench hoping to be what he used to be after a massive surgery.

You beat me to it.

Currently, Fred is our best CB so everyone simply assumes that means the rookie CB would become the Nickle once/if Dunta comes back. I'd feel much more comfortable having such a talented rookie on the roster who forced Fred to become the Nickle. Heck we spent a 4th round pick on this kid last year and got lucky. If Dunta isn't the same or doesn't come back from injury, I'd be happier knowing that Fred is the #2 instead of Jacques Reeves.

Now that KC is in Minnesota's spot at #17, you better believe that means one more OL will be off the board when we pick. They also got the Vikings pick (#73), so that might mean yet another OL off the board when we make our next selection. KC has many holes on their OL, making it more difficult for us to fill ours.

I can see that, but me I like having a starter getting paid way below average for his position (if he is producing average to above average).

Paying Reeves the big contract to be a dime is the thing that confuses this for me. 20MM is a high price for a guy that is your 3rd or 4th best player at a position (8MM guaranteed, please) , and the 1st really bad move made by Smith.

Dunta (and I am making a big assumption here) comes back and gets a big payday, Reeves is getting a big payday, and then you add a another 1st round pick to this mix. And my nickle is Bennett? I see cap trouble coming...

BTW Vinny, good to see you back on our board, have missed your take on things.

Interesting comment from Lance Z on 1560 this AM regarding Chris Williams. Some teams have dropped Williams reportedly because he has one arm shorter than the other, and one leg that is shorter than the other and may need a surgery eventually to correct it.

I wonder if the short arm helps him when it is time to pick up the check?

Thanks, I've always been a big fan of Keith, Warren, Bob and Dave....glad to see Keith get this project going.

Reeves will be at worst the nickle back unless he just lays an egg on the field. with the money they invested in him they have to think he is the real deal. i am not going to say it was a bad move by smith yet, especially since he hasn't even suited up in a texans uniform yet. i think smith and kubs have earned the benefit of the doubt on player evaluation up to this point, so unless/until Reeves is a bust on the field i am going to hold my assesment. I do think having reeves pretty much means that the odds of taking cb in the first round are low. i think if there is a LT there they like they take him, even if a corner is there that they have rated the same. otherwise i think they will be trying to trade the pick.

Your correct, I miss stated. I meant, if the Texans draft CB in the first, especially a stud CB, and Dunta makes it back to start this season, then the Reeves contract looks pretty bad.

It reminds me of the team signing a certain LDE to a huge contract and then drafting a LDE #1.

Also just to be clear? You think 20MM for a nickle is a good contract? I don't and I also think Bennett is a solid CB, and at worse can be a above average nickle, so no need for the Reeves deal IMO.

[QUOTE=nero THE zero;87]I think the statement about Assuming the Texans have Stewart ahead of Jenkins is very imprtant. I don't have a draft board, and I've watched Stewart a couple of times and Jenkins maybe once. I don't know that I would consider Jenkins a reach at 18. I was high on Stewart early in the season, but not so much later on in the year. I would be happy to have him, but I think I might be more excited about Jenkins.

I'm all about the trade down, but I think the best case scenario is to find a LT wherever we end up picking.

no, i don't think that is necessarily a good contract. i think the hope is that bennett ends up being the nickle and reeves the starter if dunta makes a full recovery. that said, with all the multiple receiver sets teams run a nickle back is probably on the field 60+% of the plays

My Magic 8-ball says the Texans won't be picking at 18.... :cool:

God it is good to be home btw. Am I the only one that was seriously impressed with Bennett this past year. I thought he was excellent, I never saw him get smoked like Faggins, or get embarrased, and he made some excellent ballhawking plays.

Honestly, I am very high on Bennett, I think he at worst a Number 2, and he plays like a # 1.

That is just me, but there is no way we light up a corner for our # 1. We have talent with Robinson for at least another two years, if you choose the franchise tags, potential and exhibited talent with Bennett, and 20 million tied up in Reeves.

Our corner is a # 4 pick. You are going to see some combination of a DE, LT or RB in the first two picks.

Everyone keeps talking about all the money we tied up in Reeves, but I was under the impression that even though his contract had a pretty big number that the deal was structured so that we could get rid of him after one year without major cap implications. Maybe Keith can clear that up....because I'm not sure where I got that and it could be completely wrong.

Of course, if he plays great then we will want to keep him so the point about already having money tied up is still valid....alhough Bennet will be cheap until his rookie contract runs out.

5 years 20MM, 8 MM signing.

So unless he is a June 1st cut next year, cutting him will cost a bunch.

Reeves contract is why I am saying they should not draft a CB in the 1st.

Perhaps the Texans were under the impression that Albert or Williams would be available at #18 when they signed Reeves. Both have really climbed up draft boards (at least in mock drafts) since the signing. If they were confident that OL was the way to go in the 1st round, then they wouldn't want to be caught without a decent #2 CB on the roster like last year. Things have changed in terms of what people are projecting for tomorrow in terms of the talent at positions that will be available at #18.

If the Texans are truly one of those teams who believe that you should take the BPA and Albert and Williams are gone, then drafting some other LT would be a NEED pick. As much as I like Carl Nicks, I am really considering the possibility that his off-field issues could slide him down in the draft. If they select Duane Brown at #18- I might cry.

I'm wondering if we didn't select a CB because of Reeve's contract, bypassed a RB because of the money we have invested in Green and Brown (with Taylor on the roster), ignore the OL because the best talent is off the board and Gibbs is here to work magic; might the Texans look at some wild-ass position? I mean would we consider Jerod Mayo, James Hardy, Philip Merling, or Kentwan Balmer because they are the BPA?

Now you are starting to get what I have been thinking about a week.

Except if Mendenhall is there, I have to jump on him.:D

With Chicago, Carolina, Detroit, and Denver ahead of us; Mendenhall is probably a pipe dream.

I agree with you. I don't think the Texans will go CB unless it is one of the guys they really like. Same with OL. I have a feeling there may be a trade back or a DL. A pass rush makes the secondary look better.

Unless we get real lucky and have a worthy LT or CB on the Board at #18, I'm sure moving back would be GM Smiths fondest wish if only he could
find a trading partner to offer "reasonable value" for his first rounder.

Reeves signed a 5-year contract that included a $4 million signing bonus ($4MM / 5 yr = $800k/yr prorate). He also got an addition $2 million as a roster bonus on this year's cap, which is the reason why cutting him after this year or next would be less painful... that extra $2MM won't need to be spread over future years.

2008: $1MM base, $800k prorate, $2MM roster = $3.8MM cap hit

So getting rid of Reeves after just one year would mean ($800k * 4 years) $3.2 million in dead money. If taken as a June 1, 2009 cut, that would mean $800k on the 2009 cap and $2.4 million on the 2010 cap.

Okay, Carl Nicks is still on the board, Antoine Cason went at #27, and we drafted Duane Brown.

I'm officially, not happy. :mad: