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Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?
Anyone else still think Keenum is anything more than a career backup?
Lock it up: The Texans are drafting a QB with the first round pick. |
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Time to blow it all up, including the GM. |
I would not want Keenum as the uncontested starter next season but I'm not ready to bury him as "career backup" just yet. He was off-target more today than the past four games but there were also passes I'd expect NFL receivers to catch, particularly on that final drive.
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Ya, I'm not giving up on him, yet. I want to see if he continues to regress or can turn it around before the year is out. Everyone should admit he's in a tough situation.... The coach is probably going to get fired and I'm not sure he's behind him 100%, O-line sucks, receivers can't catch. He's got a QB coach, an OC and Head Coach all "working him"..... Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time.... QB's have bad days (duh)....Look around the league - all QB's have bad performances, the really good and experienced ones keep the stink to a minimum... They should keep Keenum in the rest of year just for the fact he's not a big INT guy (today's INT really shouldn't count, but it does). If memory serves, he was that way in college, too - low INT's... If someone wants to discuss his "almost INT's", well, just like a close team loss, a close INT doesn't count.... |
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I think he has played ok considering circumstances. But we are 0-5 when he starts. We score less than 20 a game when he starts (near the league bottom). We average around 5 points per 2nd half when he plays. And all of these stats are declining (except w/l which can't get worse). I appreciate the effort, the fun, and the hope he's brought after Schaub threw up all over this season, but nothing about his performance says pass on a QB you like. I think you draft like he doesn't exist. That doesn't mean force a QB, but don't pass on one because you've got a guy who can be a top 20 NFL QB under the right circumstances. |
1st, he's not a rookie.
He's consistently gotten worse since his first game, and has yet to have a good 2nd half. The kids got heart and desire, but is limited on tools. I hope he sticks in the league for a long time, just don't care to have him as my QB with so many other options available that could actually move us forward. |
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Compare to his 0-5 record (0-4.5 actually, Schaub gets some "credit" for Oakland), every one of those games was a close loss. The Texans were in a position to have won every one of those games. But nobody made a play in crunch time and Keenum is not immune here. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand-grenades and "almost INT's" with the Case critics..... Got it? :) Quote:
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Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history. |
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The truth is that only Manziel is even intriguing to me out of that group. I watched Bridgewater look bad against a UH defense that gave up about 700 yards to BYU and has like 2 upperclassmen on the 2 deep. Mariota cannot pass unless he can run which means he cannot pass. Hundley I know almost nothing about except that he looks the part. |
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One thing is obvious though, even more than ever a competent QB seems a necessity to be successful in the NFL these days, so I'm of the opinion if there's even a reasonably good prospect out there at QB and your team needs one, then you draft him even ahead of somebody like a Clowney who might be one of the greatest defensive prospects of his time. Of course ideally you draft Clowney and use a later pick for somebody who's gone unnoticed in the top rounds, like a Russel Wilson. Whatever ? |
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But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.
How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round? NE - no. DEN - no KC - no CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC) IND - yes 6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6. SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder) NO - no ARI - no DET - yes DAL - no CAR - yes Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think. |
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Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.
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I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games. I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes. Quote:
So what this list tells me is that most playoff teams DO need a quality QB, and quality is typically found higher in the draft than later. Are there exceptions? Of course. But Brady's and Romo's are far from the norm, and I don't count Keenum as being in that class. With a new regime presumably coming in, a new QB at the top just seems all the more likely. |
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How many playoff teams have RTs they drafted in the 1st round? (I bet none) DEs they drafted in the first round? (I bet just as many as QB) You are manipulating data to fit a pre-determined opinion (you don't want a 1st round QB). Actual analysis says 3 teams drafted their QB in round 1, 1 team in round 2, 1 team in round 3, 1 team in round 6, and 1 UDFA. 2 others signed FAs, and 2 traded for theirs. This means the most likely way to get a playoff QB is to draft one in the 1st round (Luck, Stafford, Newton). But remove the original team caveat and you get this; Manning, Luck, Stafford, Newton, Palmer, and Alex Smith were not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks. That means half of this year's playoff QBs were #1 overall picks. Does any of this mean we MUST go QB. Absolutely not. It just means Bob's stats were misleading and I can mislead with stats just as easily if I so desired. |
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As for Keenum, I agree with most here in that he is not the answer and in no way should he be a factor in us drafting a QB. I don't care who is here next year from our current roster, they MUST draft a QB in the 1rst or 2nd RD.
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Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like.... And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better.... Quote:
Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance. :) QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level.... |
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Rule of thumb (or my wild a$$ guesses) 1st & 2nd rders. 2-3 years sounds about right. 3rd & 4th rders - 1-2 years. 4th+ from when they get to play - 1 year Not saying I agree with that, just what I have seen thru the years with just about all franchises. |
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Referring to the thread title, I think he is more than a career backup and could have a 2009-2011 pre-injury Matt Schaub ceiling under the right circumstances (top 8-16 starting QB). |
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I think there's many people like me that hit all the Texan forums. It's hard not to be affected by some of the predominate chatter.... |
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Provided he's the starter the rest of the year, the New England and the Denver defenses might be too smart for him at this stage so it will be interesting how he does in those games. Seeing the Jags and Colts a second time - these are less scarier and will be chances to show that he's learning. The Titans defense is top 12 and will be another good test. As mentioned, if he wants to survive a possible/probable regime change in Houston, it's up to him. By all accounts, he's supposed to be a quick study. An incoming coach may want to draft a QB, but keep Keenum around for competition and continuity.... Don't know about you, but if I was an incoming coach and asked to pick one of Schaub/Yates/Keenum, I'm taking Keenum.... |
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Bumping this.
Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too. Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum. I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater. Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust. |
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As much as I'm in favor of a new QB, I don't like Bridgewater or Mariota at all. Mariota seems like a faster Locker. He cannot pass unless he can run, which means he cannot really pass. I am intrigued by Manziel and don't really know too much about Hundley other than he looks the part. I liked Boyd coming into the season but he was abysmal against FSU. I don't think there is a QB that I would feel good about at #1 overall, especially since it appears I could have a guy like Boyd at #33. If we traded down or were drafting between 5-10 I would be tempted to go Manziel, but I don't think I could pass on Clowney (or possibly the UCLA DE?) if I was drafting 1 or 2. If a new coach had the confidence to keep Keenum as a short term option because we went QB in round 2 and didn't want to rush a guy like Boyd onto the field I would not complain. But a new coach would need a pretty big pair to have the hometown hero to be measured up against his new draft pick. Plus if I was Keenum I think I'd want to be somewhere that didn't have the QB of the future on the roster yet (a backup wherever Kubs or a shanahan lands perhaps?). |
Keenum is currently 19th in NFL QB rating (86.1) which is better than Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, RG3, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck among others. He is next to last, however, among qualifiers in completion percentage (54.2%). He is 10th in yards per attempt (7.54) despite all the incompletes. Philly's Nick Foles has an ungodly 125.2 QB rating, best in the NFL and 12 points higher than Peyton Mannings who is second.
ESPN's Total QBR ranks Keenum 30th but still higher than Eli Manning and Matt Schaub. |
The top QBs in the league excel at reading defenses and can often perform better when blitzed. I have no idea whether Bridgewater or any rookie will be capable of that; hence the risk especially if using a 1.1 pick on one.
That said, I have yet to see this demonstrated by Keenum. Granted, he has six games under less than ideal circumstances, but I'm not quite sure his skills indicate this will someday be a strength for him, either. Keenum needs to (a) recognize the blitz, (b) have an internal clock to find his hot route, and (c) throw the pass accurately. Be honest... has Keenum shown this? Or has he been just buying time with his still-healthy feet hoping his HOF WR (or his 1st round WR) finds a way open 6 seconds after the snap, holding onto the ball even if it means taking a sack for a 9-yard loss? Brees, PManning, Brady... the teams that have elite success over an extended period of time possess a QB with these traits. That's what I want for the Texans. Easier written than done of course, but if Keenum is not that guy and perhaps that guy is available in this draft, that's what I'd be looking for. |
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It is unfair to compare Keenum to Brady and Manning, but Wilson is younger than Keenum. Keenum is already 25 years old (almost 26). This is not a fresh faced rookie. He had 6 years at UH and now almost 2 full years in this system. He is behind only in terms of NFL reps. I would not expect the same sort of learning curve as with a 22 year old rookie who had 6 starts. |
Roger Staubach had Navy commitments (or something like that) and didn't make it to the NFL until age 27. He didn't get cranked up till age 29 and then had a nice run all the way till age 37. Age schmage.... not really worth nit-picking over. Bigger factors are can he play, can he pass worth a damn, does he show the ability to pick up on things fairly quick? If he (Keenum) answers these with "yeses" by the end of the year, got to keep him around.
-------------------------------------- Ya know, Andrew Luck is in his second year and not exactly setting the world on fire......Statistically, he's Joe Average..... The "next Peyton Manning" has more work to do.... However, I think most people agree that watching him play, one can see he has a very good "toolkit".... --------------------------------------- Drafting a QB is fine by me but just be prepared to go through the same thing (nit picking, pros and cons, lovers/haters etc.) we are going through with Keenum when he arrives. Someone in another forum I read made the point that a top 5 drafted QB is too big of an investment to leave sitting on the bench..... This QB will more or less be handed the keys sooner rather than later..... ------------------------------------- With Keenum, I see a Texas boy that could probably tell you a few stories about those Friday Night Lights (and Saturday Night Lights for that matter). Rightly or wrongly, I (still) see some good things lurking..... I (still) see upside.... MNF announcers speaking about Wilson and Brees made it a point to say a QB's height doesn't mean what it used to. Provided he's the starter the rest of the year, Keenum is going to be given a mostly 10 game audition. For an undrafted QB and despite the circumstances, that's all one can ask for...... |
I see good and bad with Keenum and the bad is mostly fixable with a full camp of practicing with the regulars instead of getting the table scrap reps. Kubiak says Keenum is a great film study and picks up knowledge rather fast.
Right now, he's looking downfield while Schaub was looking to dump pass. If there are shorter routes or designed screens, he isn't finding them. The New England game was actually the first one for which I could fairly evaluate Keenum because the OL gave him time to throw and the running game worked well enough that the Patriots had to respect it, making play action more effective. He's only had three picks so far and two of them were because he threw while getting hit. But he's not really accurate and his receivers don't look comfortable trying to catch him. That comes with timing and timing comes from a full off-season throwing hundreds of passes to the receivers where they run the exact same route to the exact same spot with the ball arriving at the exact proper time. You can't really get that down during the regular season. You have to work at that all off-season. I think there's about a 40% chance of Keenum being a solid NFL quarterback if he's allowed to develop but I'm doubting he'll get that chance in Houston. |
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