Texans' Current Draft Position: 9-13
 

With four weeks to go:

1. Carolina 1-11
2. Detroit 2-10
Buffalo 2-10
Cincinnati 2-10
5. Arizona 3-9
Denver 3-9
7. San Francisco 4-8
Dallas 4-8
9. Minnesota 5-7
Washington 5-7
Cleveland 5-7
Tennessee 5-7
HOUSTON 5-7
14. Six tied with 6-6

I suspect we may move up a spot or two when all is said an done. Perhaps #7 or so.

The 1st tie breaker is strength of schedule, and from what I can gather, we have the toughest schedule of the teams we are tied with. That would give us the 13th pick currently. I will have a better stat on this Tuesday.

I hope that this year we don't have a meaningless run at the end of the season to move us into draft mediocrity again. a couple of wins turned to losses last year moved us down considerably in the draft and maybe out of the running for a top-notch player. Remember that position runs throughout the rounds.

Updated
 

With three weeks to go:

1. Carolina (1-12)
2. Cincinnati (2-11)
3. Denver (3-10)
Buffalo (3-10)
Detroit (3-10)
6. Arizona (4-9)
Dallas (4-9)
8. Washington (5-8)
Minnesota (5-8)
San Francisco (5-8)
HOUSTON (5-8)
Cleveland (5-8)
Tennessee (5-8)

The Titans are actually -3 in the W-L but +26 in pt. differential.

PK is right that SOS determines the tiebreaker for the draft which tends to kill us because it is the worst SOS that gets priority and the AFC South is traditionally a strong division, although not so much this year.

What we need in the Draft is a head hunting excellent coverage FS, and that can be had in the mid first round. After that I still want a DT that can collapse the QB pocket on 3rd downs.

I want wins. Considering two of our last three games are against teams we f'n hate......I want wins. I don't care about draft position if it means we can beat the hell out of the Titans and cost Jacksoffville a playoff spot.

I guess it doesn't matter if there are any safeties worth a top 15 pick, go ahead and take one cause we need it.

Currently I do not have safety worth a 1st round pick. I would draft CB Brandon Harris at our current draft position, and move Quin or Jackson to FS. Monday night showed what Pollard can do if used correctly. He needs to be around the line of scrimmage and attaching.

Yeah, Pollard looked like an all-Pro this last game, first time they cut him loose at the line all year for some reason.

Sweeping the Titans has its appeal but how will that feel when they draft the defensive player we wanted this spring?

And, if we cost Jacksoffville a playoff spot, all we do is let the even more despised Colts back in.

The real conflict for me is the Broncos game. How do I root when both teams need to lose?

I think I'd be rooting for the Broncos to lose if I were a fan of both teams. The Texans are going to be in that BPA no-man's land anyway as far as draft position.

Don't worry, one of them will.

But in those zone defenses we have been using, Pollard couldn't cover a WR, much less a TE, with a blanket. Good tackler, no cover is the rap on our SS.

Well we're moving on up

Update
 

A lot of bottom-feeders won this week to mix things up:

1. Carolina (2-12)
2. Denver (3-11)
Cincinnati (3-11)
4. Arizona (4-10)
Detroit (4-10)
Buffalo (4-10)
7. San Francisco (5-9)
Houston (5-9)
Washington (5-9)
Dallas (5-9)
Cleveland (5-9)
12. Minnesota (5-8)* - pending MNF result.
13. Tennessee, Seattle and St. Louis at 6-8

Just our luck - and a fitting kick in the @$$ - we'll finished tied with about 5 teams and end up with the last pick amoungst them all.

Don't know how it will finish up but as of last week, Cleveland had had the toughest schedule in the league to date so we will probably be picking in front of them if we have the same record.

And I can't believe I just typed a sentence assuming we will have the same record as Cleveland. Wow. They have a rookie 3rd round pick/washed-up Delhomme at QB, a RB nobody wanted, and basically no receivers and will probably have the same or better record than us despite playing a tougher schedule. In just a couple years, Mangini (who I don't even consider to be a good coach) has taken a bunch of castoffs and already made them into a better team than the Texans. But let's just stick to our 43 year plan. As McNair would say, "We're on the right track."

The draft tiebreaker is strength of schedule which hurt the Texans in past years because the AFC South was so strong but it isn't this year. The AFC North is stronger. While this is no sure thing, I am ranking the divisions from weakest to strongest and expecting the SOS to be roughly equivalent.

1. NFC West
2. AFC West
3. AFC South
4. NFC Central
5. NFC East
6. AFC North
7. AFC East
8. NFC South

It actually kicks bad teams in good divisions in the teeth twice - first by forcing them to endure a tough division and secondly by penalizing their draft position by giving them the shaft on draft tiebreakers because of their strength of schedule. I don't agree with the whole SOS tiebreaker (it ought to be the same tiebreakers as determining the playoffs except in reverse) but it often wounds the Texans but not this year.

I have us picking between 10 and 12 currently. Some depends on the Bears Vikings game tonight, and some depends on how that SOS plays out.

Currently we are not picking in the top 8.

I bet we end up top 10, maybe 7 or 8. As long as we don't go doing stupid things like....winning games.....the time for that has passed anyway.

Hopefully they don't decide to go with a 16 year old DT again.

They need to bring back Kris Brown and float a few wide-right.

We have the Broncos playing us this weekend and the Texans should win that one, rookie QB playing and all that, but the Jags should beat us to end the season.

So right now, sadly my 6-10 prediction is looking good.

Wow, did you just go two years between posts here? Sooo, whatcha been up to? :D

Week 16 Update
 

Assuming the Vikings lose in Phrigid Philly* on Tuesday, here's the updated projected draft order and their final opponent: (z - clinched #1 pick)

1. Carolina (2-13) z - @ ATL
2. Denver (4-11) vs SD
Cincinnati (4-11) @ BAL
Buffalo (4-11) @ NYJ
5. San Francisco (5-10) vs ARI
Arizona (5-10) @ SF
Detroit (5-10) vs MIN
Minnesota* (5-10) @ DET
Houston (5-10) vs JAX
Dallas (5-10) @ PHI
Cleveland (5-10) vs PIT
12. SEA, WSH, TEN (6-9)

Note that SF-ARI and DET-MIN play each other in Week 17 so one could assume that a loss to Jacksonville will put the Texans in the Top 10 in next spring's draft, probably around #8. I wouldn't count on DEN, CIN or BUF to pull off an upset to get their fifth win.

Kuharsky tweeted that we were in the 8th spot:

@espn_afcsouth: Projected draft order from ESPN Stats and Info has #Texans picking eighth right now.

Projected Order Of Top 11 Picks In 2011 NFL Draft
Team W-L Win Pct. Schedule Strength*
1. Panthers 2-13 .133 .576
2. Broncos 4-11 .267 .508
3. Bengals 4-11 .267 .580
4. Bills 4-11 .267 .582
5. Cardinals 5-10 .333 .456
6. 49ers 5-10 .333 .494
7. Cowboys 5-10 .333 .521
8. Texans 5-10 .333 .527
9. Lions 5-10 .333 .549
10. Browns 5-10 .333 .576
11. Vikings 5-9 .357 .542


http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth

I'm going to be so upset if we beat the Jaguars.

A win over Jacksonville might drop us from eighth to as far as 11th or 12th.

Ahh, yes, a fitting kick in the nuts from Rubes to all us fans on his way out. Without a doubt, it's going to happen.

I think it's horrible to wish to lose the game, draft position aside.

We loathe Jacksoffville. I want them dead in the water and out of the playoffs. Screw them.

But what if a higher position in the Draft gives the Texans the opportunity to select a player who would enable them to more effectively compete with the
Jags in the future in games that really mean something, like getting into the playoffs ?

Is there a big difference in the historical production of the #8 and #12 picks? Or more importantly, what we can do with that pick? I know last year if we had won more we may have been forced into McCourty over KJ. That would have been terrible.

With that said, I have wanted to lose since about week 12 so that Kubiak would be out. Or I should say I've wanted to lose on principal so he would be fired. Because no matter how much I want that on monday through saturday, I find 100% of myself wanting the Texans to win on Sunday (and 100% of myself feeling gut-punched when they find a new way to lose).

Bottom line is I really don't think it matters either way if we win or lose this game.

I'm not a fan of rooting to lose but I don't think winning helps the Texans at all. Winning gives McNair the fig leaf to perhaps stick with Kubiak another year as well as hurting our draft position.

Keep in mind, the draft is what you do with it, not just where you draft. We COULD have had Patrick Willis, not Amobi Okoye. We COULD have had Derrick Johnson, not Travis Johnson. How many more TEs and WRs do you want us to draft instead of finding some better DBs?

And as for kicking the Jags out of the playoffs, they're already out. There may still be a mathematical chance but the Colts would have to choke and if the Jaguars can't even beat the McNabb-less Redskins at home in a must-win situation, I just don't see them making the playoffs.

If you literally root for your team to lose on game day then you are not a fan. If, after a loss in the sort of situation in which we find ourselves, you cannot recognize the silver lining then you are not sensible.

Given the Texans history in choosing corners, they probably would have taken somebody like Kyle Wilson and still left McCourty on the Board.

Well, after we got lambasted, utterly dominated, by the cowboys I wanted us to lose every single game after that. The reason? A new coach.

Am I not a fan? Unfortunately, losing seasons or winning Super Bowls are the only way you get a coaching change. I want the Texans to go to the playoffs every single year but this coaching staff is not gonna get that done. Thinking bigger picture means we have to have a coaching change...and a losing season. Ugh, the worst the better because McNair seems okay with mediocrity.

BTW, this weeks game will have the flavor of a preseason game to me. 8th pick or 12th pick means nothing because boom or bust looms in the first round.

In this draft the premium picks appear to be the top 5, after that there is a group of guys that can be #7 or #21 depending on each team/ internet gurus list. So if your not top 5 IMO being #8 or #12 doesn't change much. This is not a great draft for off the chart type talent, but there seems to be a large number number of good prospects.

True, but losing might net you Patrick Peterson if we can sneak into the top 5......

I would be a non-fan for a day if that happens.

Me too, I see him as the best guy in this draft who is not a QB at Stanford.

PK, come on now, don't put words in my mouth. I was only saying what I thought was one of our primary needs. It certainly does matter "where" we draft them. At this point in time (a long way from the draft) I was making the point that we were really weak at the FS position. I hope for it to be addressed in a smart fashion this time around.

Well, the Vikings just gave us a little help with their Tuesday night win in Philly. Guess those guys can play in the snow, after all! :D

Now if the Lions can beat the Vikes off their short week, that will be even better.