The official 2010 season Texans prediction thread
 

OK, the 2010 preseason is complete and just a few more tweaks are needed for the final roster. So, it's time to reach inside and find your "inner Nostradamus" and post your prediction for the number wins for the Texans in 2010.

My reasoning:

a. I'm looking for Schaub to raise his game a notch. A few more TD passes, a few less INT's.

b. Arian Foster - run, baby, run.

c. Defense gets the traditional slow start but finds their groove faster and ends up better than 2009's defense.

d. Special teams - I see the kicking game as OK but I think all the new faces on the coverage teams as a weak spot for a time. Most important that the Texan offense covers up for them....

For some reason, I'm getting a vibe that 9-7 just ain't gonna happen this year. I dunno why.... but I'm gonna go with it. Therefore, that leaves 8-8 (or worse) or 10-6 (or better). The optimist in me wants to go 10-6, the pessimist in me wants to go 8-8. Optimist wins. My predicition = 10-6.

I very much hope my prediction is wrong and I hope the team scores 10 or more victories this year and makes it to the playoffs, but what do I think will happen ? I'm voting for a .500 record for 2010. The schedule is just too tough and the secondary is too young.

I started out saying 6-10 when the schedule was released. I got my hopes up when training camp opened and we had a lot of quality depth at RB, but now that our RB situation is worse off then last season, I am back to wavering in my optimism.

If Schaub, Foster and Johnson stay healthy and Cushing was not suspended I could have seen 11-5. Without Cushing, we have to stay healthy to go 10-6.

Having a RB stay healthy for a season is unlikely, especially when you only have one real NFL quality back healthy to start the season, so I am thinking realistically we are looking below .500, 7-9 is my current prestart to the season prediction.

I will hedge this by saying if we beat the Colts to open the season, we can be 10-6. This team needs to get the confidence and swagger that only comes from winning against the great teams, like the Colts.

So to muddle up my wavering, 7-9 to 10-6. And this coming draft is looking to be weak, so this is the year to have a high draft pick, not a mid round pick again.

No fair hedging PK ! But if we can hedge (or have a mulligan, whatever), I'll give them a shot at a winning record and therefor maybe the playoffs if they can start by going 2-2 in the first quarter of the season. That's the real teeth of the schedule when they've got the Colts, Cowboys, & 2 tough road games including one on the west coast (2 hour time difference - big disadvantage for the visiting team).

This is the Texan-centric AFC South preview we (Texans Bull Blog) wrote for www.zoneblitz.com:

AFC South

Texans 11-5
Colts 10-6
Titans 8-8
Jags 5-11

AFC East: Miami
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC West: SD
Wild Card: Indy
Wild Card: NyJets

NFC East: NYG
NFC North: GB
NFC South: N.O.
NFC West: SF
Wild card: Dallas
Wild card: Atlanta

AFC Champ: Texans
NFC Champ: GB

Superbowl Champ: GB

The Texans, not counting their kickers, have one 30+ year old player on the entire 53 man roster. That kind of youth hurt the team in big moments last season. However, this group has now been through those moments and now has the depth on the roster to compete with the NFL elite. The Texans turned a major corner on defense last season with the acquisitions of Brian Cushing, Bernard Pollard, and Antonio Smith, along with an infusion of youth at cornerback (Glover Quin, Brice McCain). Talent aside, those additions brought to the defense a physcality and aggressiveness it had lacked in previous seasons. Second year defensive coordinator, Frank Bush, will be able to implement much more of his attacking style defense now that the group has been together for a season. Bush comes from the Buddy Ryan coaching tree and believes in downhill, attack-style defense. On offense, the Texans sought to repair an ailing running game with the drafting of Ben Tate and the addition of needed depth on the interior offensive line. Despite Tate's ankle injury, the Texans are thrilled with the development of Arian Foster (2nd year UDFA from Tennessee). The Texans added Derrick Ward in free agency and will use Steve Slaton in a 3rd down role this season. A huge key to the run game is the loss of Alex Gibbs. While he certainly earned his reputation as a zone blocking guru, his militant stubborness and refusal to incorporate misdirection or man blocking in the run game allowed teams to scheme the run game to a hault. Rick Dennison (former OC and OL coach in Denver) has taken over the offensive playcalling and the run game. He has already showed his willingness to counter the defense with some misdirection and imagination in the run game and I believe it will have an enormous impact on the success of the offense. The Texans and the rest of the AFC South face a difficult NFL schedule this year and it is unlikely any of them will be able to break from the pack early.

The Colts are the clear choice of many to repeat as division winners. However, they have suffered a number of losses and have clearly (despite recent W-L totals) fallen back to the pack in recent seasons. Tom Moore is no longer running the offense and Howard Mudd is no longer working with the patchwork offensive line. The Colts have an atrocious situation at offensive tackle and Jeff Saturday (center) is aging and is likely to miss the first couple weeks of the season with a leg injury. The Colts have looked out of sync this preseason and it is likely attributable to the coaching changes and offensive line woes. Furthermore, while the Colts certainly have a number of playmakers on defense (Freeney, Mathis, Sanders), the success of that defense is dependent on the offense controlling the scoring and created constant pressure for the opposing offense. If opposing offenses have an opportunity to stick to the run deep into the game, the undersized front seven of the Colts will wear down... not only for the game but also over the course of the season. Factor in the age of those players as well as the extra football they have played the past five seasons in the playoffs, and one can expect them to physically breakdown. Freeney and Mathis both struggled with nagging injuries late last season. Peyton will continue to perform his magic, I am sure. However, as his supporting cast dwindles, it is unlikely that they can continue to replicate the gaudy win totals of the past few seasons.

Tennessee is a well-coached team with a great running back. However, they do not have an NFL-caliber passer. Vince Young can certainly make plays. Perhaps he is even a good leader. However, he will never be a successful passing QB. He simply doesn't have the tools. Special athletes at the QB position often find early success, but just as often, the NFL figures them out and they become ineffectual: Randall Cunningham, Mike Vick, Dante Culpepper. Young's greatest asset to the Titans is his ability to threaten the bootleg in the run game, which creates unnaturally large running lanes for Chris Johnson. I just don't think that is sufficient offense in the NFL. Defensively, they are in decline as well. Jevon Kearse, Keith Bullock, Kyle Vandenbosch all left this off-season. While they were all aging and declining players, they were effective playmakers and veteran leaders that the coaches and team relied on. Jeff Fisher is an excellent football coach and has enough talent to keep them competitive but the Titans do not look like a playoff team to me.

Jacksonville is a disaster! They have no homefield advantage. The have a very young offensive line, poor wide receivers, a very mediocre QB, and one of the most underrated RBs in the NFL. Maurice Jones-Drew is a great player and a joy to watch. However, he is not enough to make this collection on offense anything beyond average. Defensively, Jacksonville has a nice group of LBs, attempting to make plays in front of a poor secondary and a dreadful defensive line. Years of first round draft pick misses (Quinten Groves, Derrick Harvey, Matt Jones, Reggie Nelson, Reggie Williams, among others) have left this team talent-depleted. Jack Del Rio has been a successful motivator in the past but I think his act has worn thin with many of the players. This is a basement team in the AFC south, without much doubt.

That's my guess. The DT hole, Cushing suspension, Tate injury, Secondary, and schedule are too much to overcome. I'm glad that we have a new kicker though, so that might get us an extra win.

Given my preseason prediction of 7-9, I am thinking we need to stay with Rick Smith, Kubiak and the main coaches. To me this team looks like the 1986 Oilers, full of young talent with no background in winning. That team grew to be a solid competitor who could not get past the 4 time in a row Super Bowl team of the Bills.

I like the foundation they have built and this team is close, they need to learn to win the close game.

As much as I disagree with the choice of types of players for each position, ie I like a OL and big DT over smaller and quicker, they have committed to these types and invested to much to throw them out right about the time they are getting close to their prime.

I do not see any other coach in the league that would make the same choices, so IMO we need to keep this group in place. Changing now would be as painful as dismantling the Capers team. We all know how painful that has been.

I am hopeful that Okoye starts performing on the field soon. It would be a shame to finally write him off as a bust, only to see him become a force for some other team. The DT position has been discussed at great lengths in terms of the amount of time it takes to become proficient and at what age a DT is in their prime.

Just read a Sporting News article talking about the top NFL Coaches and Kubiak was #24. Outranked by Pete Carrol and Jack Del Rio. I'm not sure if I agree with that grade or not. I want to see how this defense pans out this season. How many missed tackles, runs of greater than 20 yards, pass plays greater than 40 yards, how many sacks by the DL and how many turnovers they can generate. I am not ready to jettison Kubiak, but I might be looking for a new Defensive Coordinator if they don't make any gains from last year.

I'm really not a Kubiak fan either, but we now have so much invested in his systems (both offense & defense) in terms of our personnel thru several years of the Draft, that another transition now would once again take years to complete. The next coach might want to convert back to the 3-4, and it's unlikely that he'd be an advocate of the ZBS.
Unless this season is a total disastor (which it would be with say just 5 or 6 victories), I say give him some more time beyond this season.

Not wanting to start a new thread for this, your mention of the ZBS gives me a place to put it here. Alex Gibbs quit the Seahawks today and was replaced by one of Carrolls past USC OL coaches. Is this the sign that Carroll figured out that Gibbs stuff is outdated and past it's usefullness?

That asked, Dennison seems to have a much more expanded running game.

Also i want to add, there is two types of ZBS systems out there. Gibbs' way with light quick guys, utilizing cut blocks to get the backside guys on the ground. They are more a track team, and they would wear out the defense in the thin air of Denver, by running them sideline to sideline all day.

There is also what teams like Green Bay, Dallas, and the Eagles to name a few use. It is more a power zone scheme. It is what the Cowboys ran when they won the Super Bowl in the 90s.

10-6 playoff, out in the first round

They beat the Colts, now its time to gain a real swagger and win a big road game. Beat Washington and this team has a real shot at 11-5.

Now go out there guys and play like you did today every game.

OK, PK said it, we are going to be 10-6 this year. We beat the dreaded Colts.!

I don't want to just make the playoffs I want to win the division. And Right now we have one division win. The Titans and Jags both won today, but they where only conference games, not as important as division games.

I want to see this team play with a high level like they did today, next weeks game is not a high profile game to most of the players, it is to the coaches, can this team play like they want it again?

With back to back to back games with Washington and Dallas, I don't see the Texans letting up.

231 yards rushing was great, but I want to see more balance. I don't want to lose the high-octane passing games we've had in the past. Balance will win in this league and we have to have it.

OK NBT, you have watched enough football to know when a team can run for 257 yards on another team they probably won. Plus you also know the old adage of taking what the other team gives you.

Well my friend the Colts had AJ bracketed all day, and we scored our 1st TD by hitting the open receiver, that was 7 play 80 yard drive that took only 3:44 off the clock. That is a top tier passing game.

In the 2nd half, Kubiak and Rick Dennison decided to crush the moral of the Colts defense by running right at them. The Colts had 8 in the box and we still ran over them. The Colts had the right plays called on defense on 4 down and Foster still made the 1st down.

That was as pretty a game yesterday as the game Warren Moon had in Kansas City the day he throw for 500 yds. The O-line dominated the Colts and this team needed the O-line to find out they can do that to someone, and that someone was the team that has owned this team from the start of this team.

Dennison will throw the ball when it's called for.

To me, not having balance is when you want to do something but can't. Simply choosing to do something (like run the ball) and then being successful as hell at it doesn't make you unbalanced.

I don't care if Matt Schaub doesn't throw another pass this year. If the Texans can run the football and the other team can't or won't stop them they would be foolish to throw the ball around.

very good call

I don't know about you guys, but I'd like this running game thing to be a permanent condition, without having to get a new guy in literally every year. Foster's on pace for 528 carries. I'd like to say it doesn't matter as long as we're winning, but what about the curse of 370? We've GOT to have more balance. Slaton's gonna have to return to form at a minimum, or Arian's gonna have a pretty short shelf-life. Here's an article, clearly skewed towards fantasy production, but there are some pretty good real stats in there too.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/fo...2k10curseof370

Haven't heard anyone mention that yet, and I think it oughta matter. I know it's crazy early, but still. 33 carries is too many.

Your right, its crazy early.....and we were playing the Colts. Chew the clock, and keep Mr. Foreheads a$$ on the pine. If we see this again, before the next Colt game, I will be beyond shocked.

If we do this again in week two, the cowboys will have to come out with 8 or 9 in the box and then Schaub and all his toys will be passing the ball all over the field.

It's very dangerous to project numbers out based off one game.

People are getting way too carried away and reading way too much into the gameplan (and maybe even Foster's play) on Sunday. For several years now, the Colts defense have been fairly susceptible to a solid running game. Throw in their prolific offense and it only makes sense to try and run the ball a lot. There are two benefits: (1) keeps their offense off the field and chews the clock and (2) their defense is built to play with a lead and has a hard time stopping it. This game plan was no surprise and I don't think it's any indication of what we can expect going forward.

Just to give an example. The only other time we beat the Colts, you know what Ron Dayne's numbers were? 32 carries for 153 yards and 2 TDs. However, Ron Dayne was not the answer at RB and that game did not mark the turning point where we suddenly became a team who runs the ball 40 times a game. Now, I'm not trying to minimize Foster's day or say he's not the back of the future. I think he very well may be. Just trying to offer a little perspective.

While this win would certainly seem to establish that we're a better team and more mature this year, it could also indicate that the Colts are on the downside of their very solid run in recent years ? In other words as they often say in golf, the front-runner is now coming back to the rest of the field. And since division rivals in the AFC South play basically the same very difficut schedule this year along with each other twice, that opens up the possibility that the only team going from this division to the playoffs is the division winner with perhaps just a 9-7 record ? So obviously that makes division wins even more important and is another reason to feel good about the season opener.

Could I have been anymore vague? My initial 6-10 is looking good, my coolaid inspired 10-6 is very unlikely. This team could pull a backs to the wall run and win out and end up 11-5, but they have not shown that kind of passion or want to.

Right now the below .500 pick is looking solid.

Sure, it is. And when they were 4-2, 10-6 looked doable. There are still 7 games left. After those 7 are played, then we'll know for sure.... I'm not scared of the upcoming schedule and I don't think the Texans are either...

I don't know. Whem I'm compiling my list of players/coaches who aren't scared of strapping it on against the big boys, Kubiak and Schaub ain't too high on that list.

Well, if they're really scared, then they shouldn't be in the business. And I'm not sure that's correct - if both were gone tomorrow, I kinda think they'd have no problem finding another job....

Winning cures a lot of things.... Beer tastes better, people on the street are friendlier, birds are singing, coach and QB don't seem like mice..... ;)

well, my 10-6 glass of koolaid is about empty.

But, I do think this very young team of players, especially the starting defense, is learning a lot, improving slowly.

They are still playing real hard,

I think they are just as big and fast as any team, so nothing to be scared of.

They just need to mature in their team decision making.

So, I am willing to see what happens and wish them well to win a whole bunch of these next 7 games and surprise us and everyone.

Right now .500 is obviously looking unrealistically optimistic.
At least I had this right: "The schedule is just too tough and the secondary is too young.".

The season is a total loss. They don't win another game. 4-12!

No Joke ! It could happen.

Aight, the Texans finished the season 6-10 and looks as though no one got it right. Congrats to the ones that were close (painekiller and Roy P with 7-9)....Little did we know, eh? I'll respond to my earlier comments in red.