Okay, this is what I'd do. I'm thinking a 4 year deal worth $33 Million and I'd guarantee $18 Million. If he wants a 5 year deal, I'd be willing to go $36/$21 because I'd be hesitant to go that extra year. It sounds like a lot of money, but it's probably in the ball park of what he's worth.

Interesting article on Dunta. Not sure how accurate this is, but if it is true, they they are $3MM to $6MM apart on the guarranteed money.

http://www.examiner.com/x-778-Housto...tags-this-week

From the above link -
As far as Dunta, we've covered this before (links below) but if I had to guess what's been going on, and what will happen sometime in the next 11 days this is it:

"Dunta and his agent want something close to Chris Gamble money, which was $23 million guaranteed.
The Texans have an offer on the table between $17 and $20 million guaranteed.
Dunta and his agent will not accept the Texans offer
The Texans will use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Dunta which will guarantee him $9.96 million for one season, if he signs the tender"
*************************************************
With the statement "but if I had to guess what's been going on", the writer atleast reveals his comments are pure speculation. On the other hand, it seems like a plausible scenario.
And I would think he's worth "Chris Gamble money", if not for the residual uncertainty about his full recovery to form pre-2007 season ending injury.

I can't get used to the numbers thrown around for players. We don't even know if Dunta can walk for 4-5 more years much less play at a higher level than ever to be worth that kind of money. He is not a real 'lock down' CB in my mind (good, but not that good). I am not saying he isn't worth it , but I am saying with the economic situation like it is tickets may go unsold this year. I would be very careful of paying that kind of money unless he could guarantee a deep run into the playoffs and I don't think he can.

Leigh Bodden was just cut by the Lions, I'm thinking, bring Dunta and add Bodden, I feel pretty decent about our corners . . . I know hes had a couple of down years and some injury problems, but he'd sure be a value get if he performed like he did in many of his Browns seasons.

I don't think Bodden is worth it. I don't see him as a significant upgrade over Reeves or Bennett and certainly his ceiling isn't higher than Molden. I thought about Bodden too when I saw it, but, if we keep Dunta, I just don't think we spend any significant resources on CB. Our CB depth is actually pretty good.

I dunno, but so far neither D-Rob or Rick Smith has blinked and frankly I'm surprised. I thought we'd have a deal by now, but perhaps D-Rob is demanding a really, really big payday or there's my own fallback theory which is he already has another team/city where he actually would prefer to play ?
Another thing, it looks like a week from Thursday (2/19) is the drop-dead date for the Texans as that's the deadline for them to pop D-Rob with the franchise tag designation even though FA isn't until the 27th.

PFT.com estimating Dunta's open market demand:

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/...nta-in-demand/

I'll stick with my proposal of 4 years $33, $18 guaranteed.

I dunno, but I'd bet anything under 20 M guaranteed money (whatever the term of the contract) won't bring D-Rob ?
I haven't got a player on the Texans roster I'm more sentimental about than D-Rob, but like the man said this is business and I didn't see the same player
last fall that I saw before his injury in 2007. Now I understand that what he did in 2008 was remarkable after the extemely severe nature of his 2007injuries, but the Texans would be foolish if they didn't have a certain degree of concern about whether or not D-Rob makes a 100% recovery.

We could just get his replacement, Alphonso Smith at #15 and be done with it.

From McClain's chron.com blog yesterday:
Thursday's deadline to tag is fast approaching. I'm guessing he re-signs, but I can't believe the Texans would refuse to tag him if he doesn't.

Someone on texanstalk.com had a good and somewhat worrisome theory about why the texans would tag Dunta:

basically, Bob McNair, feeling compelled to "do right" by Dunta Robinson, promises his agent that he won't franchise him and will give Dunta an opportunity to find his market value.

I hope this doesn't happen but I think it fits McNair's profile and could be a possibility. Hopefully, we'll get a contract done and won't have to worry about it.

The Texans would be foolish to not tag Dunta, if a deal can't be reached. Not tagging him would create another hole to be addressed in free agency or the draft and I doubt the cost of fixing that hole would be any cheaper. Hopefully he gets signed for a not too ridiculous price.

But what if the Texans sincerely don't think he is or will ever return to his former self ? Do you think he is, I know I've got my doubts ?

If they don't think he can get back to a very good to elite level, then of course they should move on. However, the mere fact that according to McClain they are offering somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 million guaranteed that leads me to believe his health won't be much of an issue. If they are not completely certain then all the more reason to f-tag him, IMO.

I'm probably more sure that he will never again be the same than I am the other way around. I still think he can be a very good player, but I don't think he will ever be an elite or top corner back in this league. After his outstanding rookie year every one got carried away and assumed he was going to be the next great corner. I don't think that ever happened before the injury, and even without the injury I didn't see him as ever being a top 5 CB. Scheme and talent around him played a part, but I think my opinion of his play was definitely lower than the standard consensus was among fans.

Now with the injury I kind of doubt he will ever be more than an above average/good CB. He was flat out bad at times last season, but there's no way that a good part of that wasn't just getting the rust out. I broke my leg once, and it was a looooong time before I felt completely normal, and I had a much less severe injury than Dunta did...and pick-up basketball and Rec level soccer is a long way from strapping on pads in the NFL.

That being said, CB's are so sought after that those above average guys usually end up getting top dollar from somebody. I think Dunta does bring a lot of leadership and drive to the defense and I hope he gets signed for a couple of reasons:

1. CB's are hard to find...decent ones at least. Robinson should be fully healed ( as much as he ever will be) this year and will likely be a player that could start for the majority of the teams in the league. We could get lucky in the draft, but you never want to enter a draft where your MUST find a starter at a certain position. Any Free agent CB capable of locking down a starting job is going to be expensive (look at Reeves). I would rather go with a more known quantity with D-Rob...even with the question marks.

2. Last time this team thought it was good enough to get rid of some of it's veteran leaders it was a disaster. I think Dunta's important enough in the locker room that he needs to be back. With some of our early draft picks (Andre, Pitts, D-Rob) it's sometimes hard to believe that these guys are the veterans on the team. They have already lasted longer than the average NFL career.

I'm not sure how comfortable I am giving him a big long term deal. I think Franchising him might be the best option, but if he has a great year his price could skyrocket. My guess is that the Texans and Robinsion split the difference sometime in the next couple of days. If they don't I see no reason why not to franchise him. We don't need the tag for someone else, and with the space cleared up from releasing Green and Greenwood we should have enough space.

For the record I consider getting Owen Daniels and Demeco Ryans locked up long term as much as a priority as Robinson. Ryans still has a year or two left , and Daniels is just an RFA. Either way I would like to know that we've got that done as well.

All very good points and I agree virtually entirely. Seeing teams like the Jags pay big bucks for players like Drayton Florence only to turn around and cut them the following year scares me. Anyone in free agency is going to be overpaid. At least if you overpay Dunta, you have a pretty good idea what you're getting.

I think Dunta's price tag just went up....

From PFT:

COLTS, HAYDEN WORK OUT A DEAL
Posted by Mike Florio on February 18, 2009, 9:42 p.m.
The Indianapolis Colts planned to use the franchise tag on cornerback Kelvin Hayden.

As it turns out, they won’t have to.

According to Adam Schefter of NFL Network, the Colts and Hayden worked out a deal on the eve of the deadline for using the franchise tag.

It’s a five-year, $43 million deal, with $23 million in guaranteed money.

Hayden becomes the team’s fourth player who received $20 million or more in guaranteed money on a long-term deal. The others are quarterback Peyton Manning, defensive end Dwight Freeney, and safety Bob Sanders.

The plot thickens, eh?

More evidence in how to slot Robinson's value in the market.

All I know is I'll be plenty miffed if Dunta has neither a contract nor a franchise tag by the end of tomorrow.