The Painted Lady (Babin) didn't blossom until he left Houston but he's turned out to be a solid low-first-round pick. Was he worth what we gave up for him? Probably not but at least he's not the bust that Travis Johnson or Amobi Okoye were.

It is tough to diagnose exactly what we do this year in the draft. We have a few postions that could be upgraded but that do not play that big of a role in our system (DT, MLB#2, WR#2/3).

And we have a few that could be upgraded even though guys performed well (both guard spots or Tackle if you move Winston in, Safety).

You have one spot they probably won't upgrade because of what they have invested already and don't want to admit they are wrong about (CB#2, KJ, Harris).

And you have one spot that will almost certainly be upgraded (KR/PR).

And on top of all that, the priorities could all be changed around by our own FA (C, G, OLB, CB#2 Allen) or by any cuts we make if we resign Mario and Foster (Demeco, Walter, JJ, etc...).

And then their is anyone we sign from outside in FA.

And one final concern is if Schaub has complications lingering.

Basically it is a total crapshoot to mock draft this year because for the first time ever we are a real NFL franchise without a gaping hole that we have to force our 1st round pick into filling.

He had almost 20 sacks this season. That is worth what we gave up.

I think the bad coaching/bad drafting argument is chicken and egg, but does anyone think that last year's DC would have made Rick Smith look like executive of the year or would last year's defense have made Jonathon Joseph, Manning, Watt, and Reed look terrible.

So I am sure Casserly and Capers made each other look bad.

Oh, I do not mean to insulate Capers and staff from culpability, at all. But every single draft from 2002-2005 was a near disaster or a full-on disaster. I can't even credit that imbecile for Andre Johnson because Casserly had his sights set on McGahee until he got hurt.

In light of that it is especially curious then that the expansion draft was, with the Boselli injury excepted, an unqualified success.

Other than Boselli, Casserly played the expansion draft like a chess master - in part because teams were just beginning to realize what cap hell was like (they've adjusted) and Casserly was able to make pre-draft deals with the Jets, Jaguars and Ravens to expose players for us to take so that they could keep other players in the fold. It was a far better outcome than the way the Browns went about it.

Weary and Pitts were quality selections and Dominick Davis was a steal before he was injured. Faggins was a nice pick and the two safeties (Earl and Brown) were good for where they were drafted. The Henson ploy was worth trying.

OTOH, there were definite reaches like Seth Wand.

I'm not totally down on the early drafts. In retrospect, 2002 was a sucky draft year for the whole NFL. Very few good players emerged from that draft.

And 2006 was a Casserly draft sans Capers. That was our best draft ever and the kind of class that makes a GMs career (if you haven't preceded it with the 2002-2005 stretch).

I just think that our organization was broken for the first decade or so, and it made it tough to evaluate what kind of players we actually had. When Kubiak came along you could fairly evaluate the offensive talent and Wade's arrival means you can judge the defensive guys. But I honestly believe we would have made Julius Peppers look bad if we drafted him instead of Carr. We were just a terrible, terrible franchise.

A reasonable case can be made that Kubes inherited a worse team than was had in the expansion. Probably not true, but also probably not to far wrong. Talk about screwing the pooch.

Oh, I could very easily argue that the 2005 Texans were worse than the 2002 Texans. It would be far more challenging to argue otherwise.

That's pretty damning, really.

Draftsite.com 2.5.12
 

26 Kendall Wright WR Baylor 5' 11" 185
58 Kevin Zeitler OG Wisconsin 6' 4" 315.
89 Josh Chapman DT Alabama 6' 1" 310
121 Aaron Henry S Wisconsin 6' 0" 210
153 William Vlachos OC Alabama 6' 1" 292
184 Asa Jackson CB Cal Poly 5' 10" 188
216 Mario Kurn DE San Diego 6' 2" 220

Other then Wright not being a prototype body type for Kubiak and not a known entity as a returner, I like this mock.

Draftsite.com 2.9.12
 

This one starts the same but changes late:

26 Kendall Wright WR Baylor 5' 11" 185
58 Kevin Zeitler OG Wisconsin 6' 4" 315
89 Josh Chapman DT Alabama 6' 1" 310
121 Aaron Henry S Wisconsin 6' 0" 210
153 Sammy Brown OLB Houston 6' 3" 240
184 Matt Reynolds OT BYU 6' 6" 325
216 Randy Bullock K Texas A&M 5' 9" 205

I like the last one a little better than this one. I'm not sure where a OLB fits the current roster, same with OT. And lastly as much as a lot of you guys want Rackers gone I do not see them going with the Aggie, rookie kickers are not a Kubiak thing.

draftsite 2/12
 

26. Peter Konz* OC Wisconsin 6' 5" 315
58. Brandon Thompson DT Clemson 6' 3" 305
89. Frank Alexander DE Oklahoma 6' 4" 259
121. Derek Wolfe DT Cincinnati 6' 5" 298
153. Donnie Fletcher CB Boston College 6' 1" 196
184. Jordan White WR Western Michigan 6' 0" 208
216. Jarius Wright WR Arkansas 5' 10" 180

UDFA. Lavasier Tuinei WR Oregon 6'5" 216
UDFA. Blair Walsh K Georgia 5' 10" 185

This draft would address most needs. Konz can play all three interior positions. Thompson will take over the NT position this year. F. Alexander can battle for the OLB spot once Mario leaves in FA. Wolfe spends the year behind A.Smith at the other 5 tech. Fletcher is a steal in the 5th round and can challenge for KJ's spot. Can play some FS, too. White and Wright can step in right away to help our recieving corp. Kubiak's M.O. has been to select WR's late in the draft, this year is no different. Walsh is healthy competition for training camp.

The two mocks at CBS Sports.com both have us choosing WR Rueben Randle of LSU.

Boy is this one going to be changed after Tuesday...

My Post Combine Cherry Pick

26 Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech, 6' 5", 206. Size, Speed guy that will not have to be a #1 for a couple of years. He can block and is a team player. (Needs time to learn the WCO).

If Mario Leaves 58 Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State, 6' 3", 262. High motor guy who can be an excellent rotation guy at OLB.

If Mario Stays 58 Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame, 6' 2", 212. It's a bad year for safeties this year but this guy can play. Only Team Caption on the Irish this season.

89 Isaiah Pead, RB, Cincinnati, 5' 10", 193. Would be the #3 RB and a return guy.

121 David Molk, OC, Michigan, 6' 2", 285. High motor guy, with excellent feet, gets to the 2nd level very well.

153 Derek Wolfe, DE, Cincinnati, 6' 5", 298. If he falls this far an excellent pick, I'm getting mixed reports on his placement. Another high motor guy.

What are your thoughts?

Pead is someone who has impressed me the few times I saw Cincinnati play. Smallish guy but can he block at the next level and how good are his pass-catching skills? Is it worth spending a 3rd on a guy who won't see the field all that much, assuming he ranks behind Foster and Tate on the depth chart?

Going with the WO-Warrior are you PK ?
The thing is I'm also really impressed by this guy since I watched him during the combine, however I keep reminding myself that his size/speed combo reminds me quite a bit of a recent Texans Draft pick that didn't work so well: Dorin Dickerson, who of course was only a 7th round pick.

I see Pead as insurance for one of the top two guys going down, and for being an answer for cutting ties with Jacoby, at a cheaper price then Ward. Plus special teams is a major part of keeping a #3,

When I watch the Texans draft, I see them go BPA for need, and at 26, this kid has to be right there. Now I agree he is raw, but as in the post above he allows you cut Jacoby and pick up a willing blocker with great top end speed.

I see the Texans going WR in the 1st no matter what, and I ask why not this guy? Imagine him across from AJ.

From Mario to JJ, Kubiak has a string (and a policy) of first-rounders starting from Day One, but do you really think this Hill guy would be up that assignment ?
And isn't this supposed to be an extremely deep Draft for WRs ? Well if so I can see them holding off until the second-round to get their receiver, especially if a really good edge-rusher or DBack that Wade covets is available to them in the first round.

I have heard Kubiak say that this is the first season that they expect the number 1 pick to not start. They do not see any obvious holes in the starters, unless Myers leaves, which they do not expect.

Now if Mario leaves, I do see them looking at the BPA from the OLB or WR positions. Also there are some decent WR prospects available in the 2nd, same with the OLBs.

For the first time, we need to think a round lower when assessing draft picks because we are so low in the drafting order. IOW, when you hear "third round projection", that is who we should look at in the second round, "fourth round projection" in the third round, etc. because most of the guys we think might be available in a certain round will probably be gone by the time we're on the clock. So, for example, the guys you think merit a third round grade should be the ones you consider with your second round pick along with the guys who have fallen out of earlier rounds. That way, when you're on the clock, you have a pool of guys to consider instead of cursing all the players already taken. Better to go through the draft pleasantly surprised than bitterly disappointed.

I don't know. As a general rule being bitterly disappointed has always worked pretty well for me.

That pretty much sums up how I have approached this draft.

My whole viewpoint of the Texans' Draft is premised on Mario's departure, isn't yours ?

No it's not. I think that it's likely to happen, but I also will not be shocked to see Mario back.

In the whole FA things going on I believe Foster and Meyer's mean more to the team, then Mario. I do not see Mario being worth the money he has been paid, and a rookie came in last year and did a serviceable job.

Now to be clear, I want Mario back and we are better with him than without him, but it comes down to allocation of resources and a team with enough weapons on offense and defense.

I agree with much of what you say, except I honestly don't want Mario back because as you yourself point out we would have likely had to pay a larger price for him than what he's really worth to us. I will be very surprised if Mario is a Texan in the 2012 season.

Demeco Ryans $5+ million.
Jacoby Jones $3 million.

Drop Demeco and JJ and you have the year one cap number for Mario or very close to it if he signs a long term deal. Throw in Leinhart and look at it this way.

Cut Demeco, JJ, Leinhart. Franchise Mario (terrible deal, but just saying).

Less money than Demeco, JJ, Leinhart, Mario cost last year.

If you resign Mario rather than Franchising him, then cut those 3, you are talking a combined 10-15 million less than those 4 cost us last year. Foster tagged and Meyers can fit in that number.

Where do you think you are allocating resources that help us more than Mario? Do we have some high impact way to spend that money that I don't know about? Any FA we try to go out and sign is going to involve even more overpaying than we would do to keep mario.

I hear you, but it's just that I don't think Mario is worth the kind of money to the Texans it's expected he's gonna receive from the team that ultimately signs him, whether or not we could potentially put the deal together.

I agree he's not. But I also think that almost nobody who signs in the first half of FA is "worth" the money they get.

Letting go of Mario either allows us to overpay for someone else in FA, or it allows us to keep guys like Demeco/JJ/Leinhart (who are more overpaid). I guess I'd rather overpay Mario than anyone else we might get/keep. Not sure it works out that way, but I am just saying their is plenty of dead weight and bad contracts I'd look at long before letting Mario walk.

This is about as concise as can be said.

Draftsite.com 3.1.12
 

back on topic

26 Mohamed Sanu* WR Rutgers 6' 2" 218
58 Kevin Zeitler OG Wisconsin 6' 4" 315
89 Josh Chapman DT Alabama 6' 1" 310
121 Aaron Henry S Wisconsin 6' 0" 210
153 Sammy Brown OLB Houston 6' 3" 240
184 Matt Reynolds OT BYU 6' 6" 325
216 Randy Bullock K Texas A&M 5' 9" 205

Not sold on Sanu, i love Zeitler, not a huge fan of Chapman.

I would look at this one a little differently

26 Stephen Hill* WR Georgia Tech 6' 5" 206
58 Shea McClellin OLB Boise State 6' 3" 262
89 Harrison Smith S Notre Dame 6' 2" 212
121 Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati 5' 10" 193
153 Donald Stephenson OT Oklahoma 6' 6" 309
184 Janzen Jackson CB McNeese State 6' 0" 182
216 William Vlachos OC Alabama 6' 1" 292

I like the size speed combo of Hill a lot more than I like Sanu. McClellin explodes across the line and would be an excellent addition to our OLB rotation. IMO there is no way Smith falls to us in the 3rd, he is a solid 2nd rounder that might creep into the 1st. You guys already know I like Pead in the 3rd so the 4th round was a no brainer for me. Stephenson showed quickness and we like quickness. Jackson comes with baggage and I do not see use taking him but he has talent.Vlachos had to block some monsters everyday in practice for the Tide so he is worth a 7th round pick.

26 Ryan Tannehill QB TAMU 6' 4" 216
+ This is the year to draft replacement. Future value pick.

58 Coryell Judie CB TAMU 5' 11" 188
+ ST Gunner/Returner. It's a third of the game, my friends.

89 Jeff Fuller WR TAMU 6' 4" 215
+ Total opposite of that WR whose name shall not be mentioned. Reliable target, but no YAC.

121 Audie Cole ILB NCSt 6' 5" 239
+ Tough-as-nails inside backer who can cover tall, fast TEs.

153 DeAngelo Peterson TE LSU 6' 4" 243
+ Pass-catchin' token TE taken

184 Matt Reynolds OT BYU 6' 6" 325
+ Clean-livin' anchor of brotherhood that thought sacks were sins.

216 Chris Galippo ILB USC 6' 2" 250
+ Backer/ST depth. I don't know why this guy is available this late.

Tannehill is intriguing with the size/arm/athleticism combo, but he seems to really lack QB skills. I don't think I could take such a high risk pick in the 1st round. What are the chances that he is an upgrade over Schaub at any point in the next 3 years? For that matter is he better than Yates in the next 2 years? For a team with a chance to win, I don't think I could spend a 1st rounder on a guy who won't play soon and may not ever be good. I'd trade the 1st rounder to someone interested in Tannehill before drafting him.

CBS Sports has added and updated several mocks with 4 of 6 saying we will now take Baylor's Kendall Wright but all are in agreement we are taking a WR. Personally, I'd love Wright over any other WR choice other than Blackmon.

I do believe, however, that if we can't come to terms with Myers, we will be drafting Peter Konz with our first choice.

I'd love Wright. PR and KR is one of the only spots on this roster begging for an upgrade, and Wright is electric.

Prior to the Combine I would have agreed with you about Wright, but the less than inspiring 4.61/40, has changed my mind. And I don't think we will be drafting OL in the first round.

In my estimation, we need to cut JJ and Walters, and draft a couple of WRs to add to our explosivenes. It will also take some of the double teams off AJ.

If a 40 time is slow it is a red flag to me and it makes me look at the film. Kendall Wright is the fastest guy on the film against NFL talent every week. I have no speed concerns about him.

I had a few minutes and saw this recent version of draftsite.com

26 Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina 6' 3" 234
58 Brandon Washington OG Miami 6' 4" 320
89 Marcus Forston DT Miami 6' 3" 305
121 Cam Johnson DE Virginia 6' 4" 265
153 Janzen Jackson S McNeese State 6' 0" 182
184 Carmen Messina ILB New Mexico 6' 2" 222
216 Marcel Jones OT Nebraska 6' 6" 320



Can't say I'm crazy about any of those picks.

I took a couple of players at the end of the draft before they were actually gone in the following round (or undrafted) by draftsite.

Whitney Mercilus
Josh Chapman
Phillip Blake
Joe Adams
Amini Silatolu
Akiem Hicks
Devon Wylie

I would really like to get Mike Martin in the 3rd, but if Blake were there, I think I would have to take him.

Draftsite had Wylie undrafted, but I thought he looked very quick at the combine, in addition to plus straight-line speed. It looked like he had good hands, too. I can't say I've researched much for this draft class. Mostly going by what I have read and my impressions at the Combine & Senior Bowl.

My Cherry Pick is like this:
26 Alshon Jeffery* WR South Carolina 6' 3" 234 or Stephen Hill* WR Georgia Tech 6' 5" 206
58 Harrison Smith S Notre Dame 6' 2" 212
89 Philip Blake OC Baylor 6' 3" 315
121 Kheeston Randall DE Texas 6' 5" 295
153 Donald Stephenson OT Oklahoma 6' 6" 309
184 Malik Jackson OLB Tennessee 6' 5" 265
216 John Brantley QB Florida 6' 3" 218

I still like Hill, but if Jeffery has a solid pro day later this month, I could be happy with him. Smith looks the part at safety. I agree with idymoe here and I also believe we lose all of our FAs, Blake is a stud at OC. I like Randall for our DE rotation. Stephenson has the quickness we look for. And Brantley is a sleeper QB that can be groomed.

my draft predictions:

26. Coby Fleener TE Stanford 6' 6" 248
I have him as the top player on the board when we pick with Hill and Floyd gone. He's a nightmare to matchup against and upgrades a very important part of our offense. OD isn't the player he once was, but lined up with AJ and the explosive Fleener would make his job a whole lot easier. Also free's Dressen to walk in FA. Not to mention it takes Luck's favorite target off the board. First Team All PAC-10 TE.


58. Kendall Reyes DT/NT Conn 6'4" 300
A disruptive clog in the middle that is a load to handle. Very tough against the run. Had a great career at UConn finishing with All Big East First Team. Cody's apparent heir to take over the NT.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WS0rD...layer_embedded


89. Marvin Jones WR Cal 6' 2" 201
Very smooth route runner with excellent hands and polish. Can line up anywhere on the field and make plays for you, 4.4 speed. Was the top WR on the north squad at the senior bowl.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boy0tkwcv-A


121. Malik Jackson DE3-4 Tenn 6'5" 284
All SEC-First Team by AP, great kid with a high motor, shown by his 56 tackles as a DL last year. A.Smith's replacement in waiting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA5-Z...layer_embedded


153. Cyrus Gray RB Texas A&M 5'10" 206
Our 3rd RB and kick returner. Derrick Ward looked pretty old last year, can help in a number of different ways and could come in handy considering how often our RB's have had to miss time. Knows how to pick up the blitz which is a must for Kube's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxEWO...ayer_embedded#!


184. Miles Burris 3-4OLB San Siego State 6'2" 246
Total Beast mode type of player that looks like a steal in the 6th. All Mountain West First team last year. He'd be our rotation 3rd OLB keeping the pass rush fresh. This kid could turn out so good it's Scary.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtlON...ayer_embedded#!


216. Tyler Horn C Miami 6'4" 308
Some depth at center that can play guard if needed.